Time runs out

Thursday, 14th May 2009

A forceful assessment of the PM's prospects from the New Statesman's Steve Richards. While he gives Gordon Brown credit for his handling of the banking crisis, he seems ready to pull the plug:

He has been at the top of British politics longer than is healthy for his party, and probably for himself. I would estimate that, in today’s modern media, the shelf life of a politician at the very top is a maximum of eight years. Brown became a high-profile shadow chancellor in 1992, 17 years ago. Now he has lost the media and it is difficult to see how he can change the narrative...

And what about the Alan Johnson option? Richards argues - rightly, I think - that another coronation wouldn't be so bad after all:

Labour MPs tell me this is impossible because the media and the voters would not accept a second non-elected prime minister. They argue that Johnson would be in the bizarre position of having to call a general election almost immediately in order to secure legitimacy, even though he would lose. On this precise point, they are certainly wrong. The manner in which a leader is elected is always a secondary issue compared with the sensational novelty of the change itself.
The Conservatives would call for an election. Parts of the media would also make the case. But for a short time the bulk of the media would be occupied with the excitement of a new narrative: the former postman who had made it to the top and the final ending of the Blair/Brown era. Even though polls now suggest that a switch to Johnson would not help Labour, I suspect that, for a time, politics would feel very different if it were actually to happen.