How Obama plans to take on McCain

Barack Obama’s recent remarks suggest that he thinks that John McCain has two big political vulnerabilities: his acceptance of the idea that US troops might be in Iraq for 100 years and his current support for extending the Bush tax cuts despite his earlier opposition to them and his age.

Probably the biggest risk to the McCain campaign is the 100 years quote. When seen in context what McCain is saying is actually perfectly sensible, he is not talking about US troops fighting in Iraq for 100 years but having...

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A preview of McCain versus Obama

Barack Obama is a difficult guy to run against as Hillary Clinton has found to her cost. He presents himself as the candidate of hope, the yes we can candidate and so if his opponent defines their persona against his they end up running against hope as the no we can’t candidate. One of Hillary’s biggest errors was to talk about false hope, which gave Obama the opening he needed to accuse Hillary of being ‘anti-hope’.

Last night, John McCain in his victory speech tried to burst Obama’s hope bubble but...

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Obama wins another three, can Hillary stop him now?

Barack Obama and John McCain both behaved as if the general election campaign had started last night. Their speeches centred more on each other than their current opponents. Hillary Clinton must have had a horrible feeling of irrelevance as these two went at it.

Obama has now won all eight post-Super Tuesday contests and is 11 points up in Wisconsin which votes next week along with the state where he grew up, Hawaii. He has momentum on his side and Hillary on the back foot. Again, he racked up...

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The life of a super delegate

With the very real possibility that this race goes all the way to the convention, Democratic super delegates are getting a lot of attention. One, who is a 21 year old student, got taken for breakfast by Chelsea Clinton and every single one has been called by Bill Clinton.

I’m sceptical that the super delegates will end up deciding who gets the nomination. But if it looks like they could they are going to come under huge pressure. Not only will they have a former president on the phone every few days but there will be email drives, public lobbying efforts, calls from friends and family and a whole bunch else.

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What to look for tonight

It will be a major shock if Barack Obama and John McCain do not sweep today’s primaries in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Colombia. But the detailed results will give us a steer on some of the key questions of the campaign.

Watch to see if McCain passes the 60 percent mark in Virginia. If he does, it will indicate that the base of the party is rallying to him. If he fails to do this in what is an open primary, it will suggest that he has much work still

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Is the Hillary camp backing itself into a corner?

It is widely expected that Hillary Clinton will get thumped in today’s three primaries and it is telling that she’ll be in Texas tonight when the results come in. Obama won’t be in any of the states voting today either. Instead, he’ll be in Wisconsin which votes next week. The fact Hillary is leaving the field clear for him there--she’s campaigning all day Wednesday in Texas--reflects her team’s new strategy which is to write off February and bounce back with wins in Texas and Ohio on March 4th.

This...

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Obama makes a key concession on Iraq

Ben Smith highlights an Barack Obama shifting his Iraq position in a TV interview: 

"And you pull out according to that time table, regardless of the situation? Even if there’s serious sectarian violence?" Kroft asked.

"No, I always reserve as commander in chief, the right to assess the situation," Obama replied.

This makes a welcome contrast to Obama’s previous statement that preventing genocide was not a reason to keep US troops in theatre.

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Bush and McCain need each other

George W. Bush strode into the presidential election for the first time this weekend seeking to rally conservatives behind John McCain. The McCain camp hopes that Bush can help persuade sceptical members of the Republican base that McCain is a nominee worth supporting. Given how popular Bush remains with hardcore Republicans, he can undoubtedly play a valuable role for McCain in consolidating the base’s support for him and raising coin. The Bush White House also seems more than happy to shape its agenda to McCain’s benefit.

Some will be surprised to see...

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Hillary misses her Maine chance to slow Obama's momentum

Barack Obama has won the Maine caucus according to the news networks. With 70% of the vote counted, he is leading 58 to 41. The result is a boon to the Obama camp which was expecting to lose in Maine where the make up of the electorate—lots of voters earning less than $50,000 a year—favoured Hillary. The win keeps up Obama’s nearly perfect record in caucus.

Obama is expected to win all three of Tuesday’s primaries—Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia—and is also favoured in next week’s contests in...

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The numbers and the super delegate to watch

Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is going to arrive at the Democratic convention in Denver with enough pledged delegates to win the Democratic nomination. As this reality has dawned on people, there has been much fretting about how the unelected super delegates could determine who the nominee is. I think this is highly unlikely. The super delegates are all party elders and know what damage would be done if a group of insiders appeared to subvert the democratic process.

If one candidate leads on the three metrics of delegates...

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