It is an interesting hint as to the state of mind in the Clinton camp that they have agreed to three post-Super Tuesday debates. Normally, it is the underdog who wants as many debates as possible in the hope that the frontrunner slips up—all of which suggests that this is where the Clinton camp might feel they are going to be after tonight.
Mitt Romney flew back from California to speak at the West Virginia caucus this morning but this personal appearance wasn’t enough to put him over the top. Romney, who led in the first round of voting, appears to have been thwarted by an alliance between McCain and Huckabee supporters—further proof of how dislike of Romney is one of the key factors in the Republican race.
The other good news for McCain from this result is that it helps Huckabee justify staying in the race and as long as he does so, Romney will have trouble fully capitalising on the discomfort of some social conservatives with McCain.
One thing that could impact today’s results is that the results in the east will start coming out while the polls are still open in the west. There is talk that this could help John McCain in California as he is expected to win big in several eastern states and that could dissuade Romney supporters from heading to the polls and encourage Republicans to row in behind a winner. Of course, this only matters if the race in California is very close and then polls are far from clear on that.
On Fox News last night Dick Morris made the point that John McCain's 'front runner' status might tempt independents (voters not registered with either party) into voting for Barack Oabama as they assume that McCain is likely to win anyway. Both Obama and McCain are banking on the votes of independents in those states where they can vote in either party's primary, but McCain needs them more as he has greater problems with his party's base. For that reason he would prefer it if Clinton were doing better. The clearest indicator of how...
As voters vote, John McCain and Mitt Romney are engaged in another personal spat. It all started when Bob Dole—war hero, Republican Senate Leader and 1996 Presidential candidate—wrote to Rush Limbaugh, the talk show host, suggesting that his rants against McCain were OTT. Romney, whose campaign is now dependent on tapping into anti-McCain sentiment, dismissed Dole’s concern saying that he was “probably the last person I would have wanted to write a letter for me.” This enraged McCain who accused Romney of disrespecting a war hero and dedicated Republican.
The...
For those of you increasingly gripped by this primary race – that is, as far as I can tell, anyone interested in politics – allow me to recommend an essential historical primer on DVD. Robert Drew’s pioneering documentary Primary (1960) clocks in at a mere 53 minutes but tells you all you need to know about the stakes and the drama in these distinctively American contests. Drew, using only a recorder and a small camera, followed JFK and Hubert Humphrey around Wisconsin as the former moved towards the Democratic nomination....
One of the defining features of the race on the Republican side has been just how much the other campaigns dislike Mitt Romney. After the ABC New Hampshire debate where they had all taken it in turns to lay into him, their surrogates in the spin room didn’t event try and disguise the fact that this animus was as much personal as it was political. It also helps explains why Mike Huckabee is always taking shots at Romney not McCain and why the other candidates have not gone nuclear on each other....
I’ve just got back from Missouri and the key difference between there and the earlier contests is that the campaign in the Show Me State has only been going on for just over a week. In Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and even Florida voters had been courted for months and had far firmer impressions of the candidates and so were more difficult to sway. By contrast, in Missouri and the other 20 odd states voting, the electorate has only just tuned in and so is still shopping around; hence, the wild...
A sensible person would stop looking at polls right now and just wait until the votes are counted, but the numbers that are coming out right now are hard to ignore for us poll addicts. One new one suggests that Obama is ahead of Hillary in Massachusetts, this is a huge turn around as Hillary’s lead there had seemed pretty solid. With Obama holding his big election eve rally in Boston tonight the stars might be aligning for him in Massachusetts. But then again this poll could be an...
With Americans in more than 20 states heading to the polls, we take a look at what Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney have to do respectively if they are to become the nominee of their party.
Barack Obama: Needs to keep the momentum story going. The best way to do that would be to win in California; to take a state that until a few days ago was considered a lock for Hillary Clinton would demonstrate just how powerful his pull is. Victories in swing states like Missouri...
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