The final polls with all their post New Hampshire and South Carolina caveats are hugely encouraging for the Obama campaign. If the polls are right Barack Obama will win both California and Missouri and could come very close in New Jersey. This combined with his expected success in his home state of Illinois, Georgia and the various caucus states would be enough to ensure that Obama leaves Super Tuesday on course for the nomination.
If Super Tuesday was next Tuesday not this Tuesday then Obama would be in a fantastic position, he is the candidate with the momentum and is gaining rapidly on Hillary in nearly every contest and is now tied with her nationally. But the polls open in 32 hours and the question is can Obama make up enough of the gap in the short time remaining?
Much will turn on who wins the final news cycles of the campaign pushing late-breaking voters into their column. Obama gained a head start with the...
If things weren’t close enough in California they just took a dramatic twist with California First Lady Maria Shriver joining the Kennedys for Obama caucus today. Her surprise endorsement at a big Obama rally in LA with Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey and Caroline Kennedy guaranteed that Obama’s surge in California is the big political story of the weekend.
How California goes now is anyone’s guess. On Clinton’s side is the fact that many voted early and she can expect a big lead there that reflects her lead in the...
Mitt Romney’s message is now 80 percent negative, going after McCain for all of his supposed violations of conservative orthodoxy. But for three reasons Romney can’t gain traction. First of all, McCain is rock solid on the most important issue of the day for most conservatives, the war. Even Romney surrogate Rick Santorum, an arch social conservative who lost his Senate seat in 2006, admitted to me that McCain couldn’t be criticised on the foreign side of things. This makes it difficult for Romney to make the charge that McCain is simply unacceptable...
Mitt Romney’s message is now 80 percent negative, going after McCain for all of his supposed violations of conservative orthodoxy. But for three reasons Romney can’t gain traction. First of all, McCain is rock solid on the most important issue of the day for most conservatives, the war. Even Romney surrogate Rick Santorum, an arch social conservative who lost his Senate seat in 2006, admitted to me that McCain couldn’t be criticised on the foreign side of things. This makes it difficult for Romney to make the charge that McCain is simply unacceptable...
I've got to sprint to go watch Mitt Romney at a Super Bowl party here in St Louis but these new polling numbers are well worth looking at. I'll have more on them later, but they show just what a race against time Obama is in with him closing the gap but Hillary still just about ahead in most contests. One thing to watch is if Obama really is ahead in California, if he wins there that would be a game changer.
Hillary was amongst her people this morning, the concerned middle class. Her address was full of concrete suggestions for dealing with the issues that are contributing to middle class insecurity, health-care, sub-prime and trade. She was presenting herself as the person who can guide them through the maze; taking on everyone from the mortgage companies to the HMOs to the Chinese on their behalf. She drew regular contrasts with Obama, who she called my opponent, on their health-care plans, their respective ability to stand up to the Republicans and her readiness to lead....
You know when you’re getting near to an Obama event as the traffic becomes horribly snarled up. The man’s ability to bring the voters out is quite astonishing and today he rounded off a day of impressive crowds with a rally of more than 20,000 people here in St Louis.
Elections are not decided by crowd sizes and a Senator from Illinois should be able to draw a good crowd in the next door state but the huge numbers that Obama attracts attests to the uniqueness of his candidacy. Obama’s warm...
Bill Clinton drew a crowd of a couple of thousand at the University of Missouri today. The former president has definitely toned one thing down since South Carolina: his choice of ties. The burnt orange and canary yellow ones that he sported last week have been replaced by a rather sober blue effort.
South Carolina hovered over the event in another way. The Clintons are now clearly keen to heal the split between them and African Americans that emerged in South Carolina following their hard ball tactics there. One of the warm...
This ad touting Hillary’s Arkansas roots does a brilliant job at humanizing her and making her appear both humble and purposeful. It does, though, beg the question of why she ran for the Senate from New York not Arkansas.
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