The right's choice

2008 was always going to be a tough year for the Republicans. It is notoriously hard for a party to hold the White House after a two term presidency—George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988 is the only time that a two term president has been succeeded by a member of his own party since the war—and George W. Bush’s presidency has done serious damage to the Republican brand while the vehemence of the Republican base’s opposition to immigration reform has hugely set back the party’s attempt to reach out to Hispanic voters....

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Bush awaits history's verdict

George W. Bush’s final State of the Union contained no big surprises. Indeed, it read more like a reflection on his presidency than anything else.

Oddly for someone who was elected as a ‘reformer with results’ and who expressed little interest in foreign affairs in the 2000 campaign, Bush now finds that his legacy will be determined by events overseas. If the current progress in Iraq allows a pluralistic state to emerge in Iraq then his presidency will likely be judged as, at the very least, decent by historians in generations to come. If this goal is not achieved, then history’s verdict will be scathing.

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The right future

Down here in Florida it is made for TV politics. Rather than town hall meetings we have campaign stops in aircraft hangers. Indeed, you feel like you have walked onto a movie set where they are filming a political rally rather than an actual event.

In this state which is chock full of military bases and where four in ten of the population have a family tie to the military, McCain’s record of service is a huge aspect of his campaign. Those introducing McCain talk about his heroic service and fortitude in...

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Encouraging signs for McCain

Analysing polling data in a race as close as this one in Florida is a risky business and one can end up over interpreting it. But it is encouraging for the McCain camp that a poll which was in the field when Florida's popular governor Charlie Crist endorsed the Senator shows McCain up by three. To be sure, that is within the margin of error but the trend is encouraging for the McCain folk.

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In the McCain bubble

John McCain is a win away from becoming the odds on favourite to be the Republican nominee. If he can win here in Florida, where he is in a dead heat with Mitt Romney, he Should effectively wrap things up on Super Tuesday. If he does not, then this contest will run and run and that suits Romney who with his deep pockets can afford to compete in every contest.

Who wins the final news cycle here will be key. Unlike in Iowa, New Hampshire and South  Carolina this is...

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Further reading material, courtesy of The Spectator

Please check out Dan Collings’ new, web-exclusive article on what the American Presidential race means for British policymakers.

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The President is still relevant (just)

Normally, the weekend before a State of the Union address is dominated by talk of what might be it. But this year, tonight’s speech by President Bush is after-thought at best for the political class. 

White House aides are admitting that there won’t be much beyond small bore policy proposals in it and the most interesting thing for observers will be to see whether Bush devotes more time to the economy or Iraq. Indeed, considering that the speech comes on the eve of the Florida Republican primary its main impact might be whether it changes the minds of voters dowm here in the Sunshine State about whether the economy or the war in Iraq is more important.

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The Clintons look to change the storyline

Jacksonville, Florida

The momentum right now is with the Obama campaign which is rolling out endorsement after endorsement following the win in South Carolina. Just today news has emerged that Teddy Kennedy, the governor of Kansas and the senior Latino in Congress are all now supporting Obama. 

Hillary and Bill need something to end this slew of positive coverage for Obama and they have clearly decided that a victory in Florida is the best way to win a news cycle and change the story line. The problem is...

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Turning the page on race

South Carolina has some of the most contentious race relations in the whole United States, the battle flag of the Confederacy still flies on the grounds of the State Capitol. Considering that and how much of an issue race became in the last week of the campaign, it is significant—and perhaps historic—that Obama won a majority among non-black voters under 30. To win an absolute majority,52 percent, in a race that featured a politician with a 100 percent name recognition and a native son is truly impressive and if in this state...

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Can McCain seal the deal?

I’m at Columbia airport preparing to head down to Florida for the Republican primary which could be decisive in their race. McCain and Romney are in an intense battle for first and the polling has the race dead even. McCain got a huge boost yesterday with the endorsement of Florida’s popular Republican Governor Charlie Crist but Romney is flooding the state with ads. Rudy Giuliani who bet everything on the state is a distant third.

If McCain wins the Sunshine State, he is in an incredibly strong position going into...

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