Exit strategies

John Heilemann’s piece in New York Magazine about how Hillary Clinton might be persuaded to drop out is essential reading. Here's the key paragraph: 

“Some senior members of Clinton’s campaign have no intention of sticking around if Obama is substantially ahead come June; as much as they’re devoted to their boss, they want nothing to do with a black-bag operation designed to destroy her rival, no matter what the cost. But these same people are also deeply convinced—beyond spin, beyond talking points, to their core—that Obama would be doomed against McCain. And

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McCain's first ad of the general election campaign

Unsurprisingly, it is all duty, honour, country.

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Encouraging signs for McCain

The new NBC / Wall Street Journal poll shows Obama and Clinton level-pegging and in the general election match-ups no one leads by outside the margin of error over anyone else. The internals of the poll, though, are encouraging for McCain. His negative rating of 25 is considerably lower than either Obama---32—or Hillary who is at 48. McCain is also creeping up on Obama on his signature theme of uniting the country and only trails him 58 to 60 on this point. While McCain leads on the question of who has a...

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Let the VP speculation begin

Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, introduced Barack Obama this morning at a speech in New York sparking off a whole slew of rumours about an Obama-Bloomberg ticket. Certainly Bloomberg--a Democrat turned Republican turned independent--reinforces Obama’s post-partisan message. While his executive experience would reassure voters who worry that Obama hasn’t run anything apart from the Harvard Law Review in his life. Working against that is that it is hard to see any states that Bloomberg puts in play while his views on gun control could cause problems for the ticket.

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McCain's world-view

John McCain’s big foreign policy speech today gives us the clearest idea yet of both how his campaign intends to talk about national security and what a President McCain would actually do. McCain describes himself as a ‘realistic idealist’ and while he is still optimistic about the march of human progress, McCain is keen to show that he is neither a utopian nor a warmonger. 

McCain still subscribes to the guiding principle of Bush’s post, 9/11 foreign policy: that the old autocrats in the Middle East can no longer provide stability...

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The numbers on Obama and Clinton and the too liberal question

Texas Monthly, the national magazine of Texas and one of the best read out there, has a great write up of a bull session between two alumni of the Bush campaigns: Matthew Dowd and Mark McKinnon. Dowd famously broke with Bush in 2007 and is sitting this race out while Mark McKinnon is working for John McCain but has said he won't stick with the campaign if Obama is the Democratic nominee. 

There is little that these two don't know about politics and some numbers that McKinnon cited are particularly worth...

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Under fire

After Hillary Clinton’s hilarious “mis-speak” – whereby she concocted a story about arriving in Bosnia under sniper fire – the betting markets have moved again towards Barack Obama, who is now the clear favourite to become president (Obama – evens; McCain – 6/4; Clinton – 7/2). No wonder she got on so well with Cherie Blair.

And in case Gordon Brown is thinking of using any McPorkies in the next election campaign, the below is a taste of what might await him:

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McCain receives the Reagan blessing

Nancy Reagan’s heartfelt endorsement should help John McCain further solidify the Republican base behind him. Expect McCain to emphasise his Reagan roots in the coming months as this allows him to both reassure conservatives and put some distance between him and the current president.

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Hillary stokes the fire over Rev. Wright

Today, for the first time, Hillary Clinton tried to make political capital out of ‘Patstorgate’, telling the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

"He [Jeremiah Wright] would not have been my pastor," Clinton said. "You don't choose your family, but you choose what church you want to attend."
…
"You know, I spoke out against Don Imus (who was fired from his radio and television shows after making racially insensitive remarks), saying that hate speech was unacceptable in any setting, and I believe that," Clinton said. "I just think you have to speak out

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What Bill is up to

This from NBC's First Read is classic:

Bill Clinton is in Indiana (with Chelsea), celebrating Dyngus Day, which according to one Google search, is a Polish holiday where guys get to drench gals in water. (Seriously, we’re not making this up!); Apparently tomorrow, gals get to throw dishes at the guys.

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