The Tories have their biggest ever lead, Labour at record low

The Chocolate Orange Intifada

That's "the Tories" - generic. You shouldn't confuse this with any enthusiasm for David Cameron.

David Lindsay

Isn't it all thrilling?

You do realise, don't you, that there will be absolutely no *political* change whichever of them wins, and that abstentions are therefore quite likely to be more numerous than votes for both of them put together?

Bernard from Horsham

James
Polling methodology has changed since 95 you cannot compare 95 with the present day

Anon

The Conservatives shouldn't crow about such a lead. The electorate have been educated in the past eleven years and if 'they' think that swapping DG for DC or swapping Labour for Conservative will make a difference to the attitude of this country, 'they' have another thing coming.

We need a completely revitalised approach to government: DC? I don't think so.

David

"But in every election apart from 1987, Labour has underperformed its poll ratings."

This is very significant. Labour nearly always do slightly worse than their poll ratings suggest, whereas the Conservatives tend to do a bit better. Nothing is in the bag yet, and Cameron has recognised that, but such significant margins must be causing some brown trousers in No.10.

Mike, Brighton

24% is Labour's client vote.
Are there any voters who will vote Labour that are not in some way it's clients through the public sector or welfare state?

None

Tara

Meanwhile, over in New Labour's lala land they are on course to WIN the next general election, according to Gordon Brown. The man and the party are in denial.

TEL

When Blair was leader of the opposition they might have been scoring in the fifties but at the general they only achieved a 12 point lead. Also polling has been adjusted since then due to the fact that there was a bias in Labour's favour.

Carly

Over on PB Mike Smithson has a 'golen rule', which is:

The most accurate poll when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position.

Mike goes on to provide evidence for this golen rule by saying,'based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied.'

BOJO FAN

Off topic, but I thought BOJO was great on the BBC's Who do you think you are? last night.

Rita

The Autumn relaunch/economic recovery plan better be pretty spectacular or it's gonna go down like a lead ballon, he's been hyping it up since May's locals.

Oscar

I do get fed up with the bash Dave brigade who transfer their own animosity towards DC to the rest of the population. Look chaps you should face facts - the man is popular with the public. Everytime he appears in the media Conservative poll rating go up. I know it's hard for you to imagine, but do try a bit of objectivity.

Teledu

Yep Mike - I think your right.
And whilst Cameron might not be viewed with much enthusiasm, maybe that doesn't matter too much because Brown (and zaNuLabour) are viewed with utter distaste by the rest of the electorate; they detest the guy. So much so that the opposition could be led by a microwave oven and still win in 2010.

DM

Bojo fan -
Couldn't agree more.

Verity

BOJO FAN - We have The Wall for O/T comments. Go the right and scroll down past the blogs. Just after Americano, they've put up The Wall for us to scribble on.

Mike, Brighton - Re the socialists' client vote, this is why we need to disenfranchise the welfare sector and the public sector.

Their choice. They can retain all the privileges of the sector they're in, but they cannot vote. Anyone who's been on "job seeker's allowance" (why should they get an "allowance" for looking for a job?) for six months, for example, should have their name automatically taken off the voters' roll. When they're in work again, if ever, a simple click of the computer gets them back in the voting community.

The same with anyone working in the public sector - from real nappy outreach co-ordinators to the prime minister. You're already privileged by being excused from creating wealth and living off that created by your fellow citizens. One privilege is enough.

Again, if they value the vote so much, they can leave the public sector and become a wealth contributor and get clicked back onto the voters' roll.

I feel that this has to be addressed urgently, because the socialists will always enlarge the client state with a view to staying in office forever.

paul hill

I have it on the highest authority that Mr Gordon Brown will win the next General Election...........oh yes

Chuck Unsworth

Verity

Are you the Moderator here?

Verity

Chuck, no, I'm not. I directed someone to The Wall because it is wasting away in loneliness. After the first surge of interest, people seem to have stopped going there, and it's such a good idea. (Although one could argue that if people aren't utilising it, it's not a good idea.)