Russia’s aggression shows weakness as much as strength
Brian Cullen 12:46pm
Some of the responses to Russia’s actions in the past two weeks have been slightly panicked, and focused strictly on geo-politics. But the key to the situation is Russia’s economic position - not any ambitions to kick off a new cold (or hot) war.
We shouldn’t be surprised that supposedly resurgent Russian ‘imperialism’ has dealt its first blow in energy-rich central Asia. Russia’s actions are a result of its needs as a petro-economy. Its economic weaknesses led to this attack – not a desire to take over the world. As The Economist has written today:
This is the twenty-first century, not the twentieth. When we measure Russia up in the terms of today’s world it scores pretty poorly. For instance, compared to China and India – in terms of economic strength – Russia comes a distant third. As Martin Wolf pointed out in the FT in February, any concerns that Russia’s economy is resurgent under Putin are woefully misplaced.“Contrary to some excitable first reactions, Russia’s ability to crush the minuscule Georgian army does not make it a superpower, and its aggression in the Caucasus need not mark the start of a new cold war. To put things in perspective, America’s GDP is ten times bigger than Russia’s and it spends at least seven times more on defence. Russia’s economy would fall off a cliff if energy prices slumped and its population, racked by ill-health and inequality, is shrinking by up to 800,000 a year.”
Russia’s behaviour is unacceptable, and our response must be robust. But there need be no panicked rush about that response. Russia’s economic position is unsustainable, and eventually it will be forced to embrace the West – not confront it. China, India, and Western market states are robust enough to persevere – Russia’s actions are merely its convulsions as it faces up to its uncomfortable economic reality. It’s a weak giant gasping for breath under a brutish leadership – far from a resurgent superpower.
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Hysteria
August 22nd, 2008 1:36pm Report this commentyes well - doesn't make it any the less dangerous then ....
David C
August 22nd, 2008 3:44pm Report this comment'Twas ever thus.
But failure to address Russia's aggression would show western weakness
Andy M
August 22nd, 2008 3:49pm Report this commentGeorgia isn't in central Asia - it's in the Caucasus - and it isn't energy-rich (tho it does have a couple of pipelines)
scott
August 22nd, 2008 11:39pm Report this commentRussia is a Superpower again as the United States, CNN (as stated here on CNN August 1, 2008) and other news media's have admitted it.
albert hall
August 24th, 2008 3:50pm Report this commentRussia should be watching its back door, not the front.
Bidandi
September 5th, 2008 8:22pm Report this commentDear readers, let us face the reality with regard to US and Russia in terms of aggressiveness. The US is causing havoc and bulying many countries around the globe to name but a few, iraq, afaganstan,somalia, iran, the list goes on. The world is watching all this events and not saying a word.When Russia defended her citizens in south osetia, US allies in Europe had sleepness nights condming Russia' actions.Russia has a right to defend her self and the threat deemed to affect her teritorial intergrity. If i may ask why should the world let US defend herself beyond her teriterial bounderies? The US should like any other country respect the soverighnity of other states. And also who gave them the mandate to police the world? Russia should be respected and left to protect her inrests in the caucas.
Bidandi Fred
September 5th, 2008 8:28pm Report this commentRussia should have a close look at the US intetions in the caucas.
Jephias Mapuva
September 15th, 2009 2:44pm Report this commentGiven the tenacity with which the USA has clung to global hegemony over the years, undoing such would be a mammoth task for those who endeavour thus.However proponents of diplomacy should revisit their rules of engagement with hegemonic powers like the US and make an attemmpt to diploamtically knock some sense into the world bully.Threats would mean nothing to the US, especially given the demise of the Berlin wall and the subsequent end of the Cold War.In actual fact, the Cold war dealt Russia a big blow as emerged from the the confronation that had lasted for decades with bruises. Its attack on smaller nations is therefore compensatory beahviour associated with cowards rather than champions.
Jephias Mapuva
November 29th, 2009 7:04pm Report this commentI deplore Russian aggression towards Georgia in the most possible sense of the word because formerly she was a conglomeration of small states which disintegrated in 1990-91.Her insistence on attaching her former former appendages is not a sign of strength but a visible weakness.Instead, she should be engaging the US to stop her habit of imposing herself on smaller nations around the globe. Russia should therefore concentrate on attempts to rebuild to her former superpower status instead of meddling in petty politics.Ideally, Putin should be contemplating the economic gains that China and India have realised within their constituencies.Russia should learn from the vagaries of the Cold War.
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