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Saturday, 23rd August 2008

What's the Tories' economic plan?

Peter Hoskin 10:25am

With a protracted recession on the cards, and with the Tories storming into larger and larger poll leads, one question is increasingly important: what would a Tory government do to fix the economy?  So far, their grand plan has been to "share the proceeds of growth".  It's always been a nebulous concept, but now  - as Iain Martin points out in an excellent post over at Three Line Whip - it's probably also a redundant one.  After all, when there's no growth, there's nothing to share.

So what's the Tory Plan B?  Whilst it doesn't offer any direct answers, George Osborne's interview in today's Telegraph does hint that they're starting to think differently.  Here's the relevant passage:

"Mr Osborne uses the interview to disclose that he is pushing ahead with plans to offer new tax breaks to married couples – an 'early priority' for a future Tory government. He is also working on a new 'fiscal framework' that will govern how much he can borrow, tax and spend. It will be overseen by an independent panel of experts.

However, he still faces accusations from many to the Right of the Conservatives that the party is struggling to deliver a coherent economic message. Mr Osborne has pledged to match Labour's spending plans until at least 2009 and has been reluctant to offer firm promises of big tax cuts.

But the shadow chancellor rejects such criticism. 'I think there is a massive opportunity for the Conservative Party to say, 'look you have had your go' at trying to use Left-wing methods of simply redistributing cash to achieve a fairer society. Now let the Conservatives show that it's about more than redistributing cash. It's about giving people real opportunity and tackling the causes of poverty.'"

As I see it, the Tory commitment to Labour spending totals is becoming increasingly unworkable.  In a time of fiscal hardship, there are strong fiscal - and moral - arguments against increasing taxation and borrowing.  That leaves only a reduction in public spending as a possible cure.
 
Over the past few years, the worry in Tory circles has been that if they admit this publically, then the Government will gleefully peddle its "Tory cuts vs Labour investment" mantra.  But things are different now.  The sun is no longer shining on the British economy, and Brown's Bubble is bursting, if it hasn't burst already.  One senses that the Tories are starting to appreciate this.  Talk of a "new fiscal framework" may be the first real sign of that.  And it may also mark the point at which Osborne & Co. finally departed from those Labour spending totals.

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cuffleyburgers

August 23rd, 2008 10:57am Report this comment

Never have an opposition had such a juicy target - waste, socialistic style redistribution, failue on a huge scale, plus a muppet in number 10.

We rehearse daily on this site the litany of waste, cock ups and sheer stupidity of Mr Brown's tenure - and in terms that are easily capable of being sold to an electorate fed up to the back teeth of labour's lies and incompetence.

But Messrs Cameron and Osborne never fail to sound like they're weaselling, reluctant to pronounce.

They shouldn't be. They are making people think they have nothing to say.

The electorate is ready to hear someone come along and say:

"right, for 11 years the socialists have squandered over a trillion pounds throwing money in all directions trying to micromanage the entire economy and the result has been been that with the first economic shock to come along the whole thing has collapsed around our ears.

Our policy will be to spend where necessary to achieve reforms that will enable education, the heath service and the police to function in a way which suits people not to suit whitehall departments' press offices. The flavour of the reforms will be to remove layers of management put in to suit the target culture, and get back to managing operations sensibly. We also intend to reform welfare so that it once again returns to being a safety net for the unfortunate not a lifesyle choice for the importunate and we intend to cut the public sector payroll, in particular the quangos that have mushroomed under this government to no visble effect effect on the public debt.

We will cancel a number of expensive and useless projects, foremost among them the identity theft database and trident.

Things we would have done differently? We wouldn't have given away our EU rebate or our gold reserves, and we wouldn't have increased GPs pay for a reduced working week. We wouldn't have created all these quangos. We wouldn't have have introduced tax cedits but we would have sought to help the poorest by more effective means such as raising the threshholds and simplifying tax and NI arrangements at the lowest end of the scale so as to eliminate the perverse incentives introduced by Labour."

I think that is the basis of a compelling message.

I am available for further consultancy services if required by Smith Square :-)

Faceless Bureaucrat

August 23rd, 2008 11:50am Report this comment

Smith Square? - don't hold your breath for a response from that location...

Doc S

August 23rd, 2008 12:11pm Report this comment

cuffleyburgers - 30,000 GPs being paid (at most) £10K more than they were before the new contract - I make that £0.3bn - about 1% of the money spent on the quangocracy, less than 1% of the money hidden from the balance sheet in PFI and a drop in the ocean compared to the cost of the new client state.

Sure, the GPs did very well out of the contract, but I don't think they're responsible to any major degree for the parlous state of the books under New Labour.

David Boycott

August 23rd, 2008 1:37pm Report this comment

The fundamental difference must be to get people back to work. The legions on the dole, incapacity benefit, non-jobs in the pubic sector and pointless training schemes need to be in productive employment. The way to do this is to make employment more attractive for the employee AND the employer. We must abolish NI payments for both employee and employer below 10k and ensure that the personal tax allowance is no less than 10k.

This would in the long term pay for itself, especially when accompanied by the abolition of the ludicrous - and mis-named - tax credits system.

Nicholas

August 23rd, 2008 3:33pm Report this comment

I also wonder why DC and GO don't go for the jugular as suggested by cuffleyburgers excellent post. I am beginning to suspect that there is much of New Labour that they plan to emulate or continue. That is a terrible thought. But they have been lukewarm about most things, including civil rights, and sometimes come across as being more woolly, green and Liberal Democrat than the Liberal Democrats.

I wish there was stronger rhetoric and more of the attack dog in this pair. Some good old plain speaking and honesty, calling the socialist media's bluff by insisting on a downright non-PC debate about Britain would find resonance with the majority. Where are the Conservative values being reflected?

James Allen

August 23rd, 2008 4:39pm Report this comment

I would like to see the Tories offer a clear and coherent critique of the failings of Labour (namely their over-reliance on the state and taxation as the means of achieving policy objectives), and offer a radical series of reforms intended to liberate the individual to enable him/her to achieve his/her maximum potential. I believe this must include major reforms of the NHS, education and welfare systems, to transform the Government from being the provider of public services to merely the commissioner of services for those unable to pay for themselves. From my perspective the run-down of the NHS up until 1997 was the Tories' single greatest failing, which it has taken the public 10 years to forgive. The Tories need to be more bold in setting out how they will improve these services whilst at the same time cutting the amount of public money being lavished upon them. (Answer: by giving the patient / pupil / jobseeker more choice, by increasing the opportunity for service providers to compete and innovate, by providing greater incentives to work and save (lowering taxes on the lowest incomes), by trusting the individual to spend their money more efficiently than the Government etc etc).

maas101

August 23rd, 2008 5:00pm Report this comment

If an election were just around the corner then all of the above would be valid. Barring a miracle there is no possibility of that before 2010 so the Tories are wisely holding their powder dry. Why should they lay out a plan for good government when Gordo will just try and steal it and claim it for his own?

Government-in-waiting they may be, but 2 years is a very long time in politics.

Tiberius

August 23rd, 2008 6:24pm Report this comment

Osborne's interview should reassure his doubters. Once again he sets out his long term aims, which should cheer any Tory supporter.

With the books, in 2010, likely to contain more red than a giant punnet of strawberries, it is reassuring to see that this policy can be given priority. This must mean Osborne has identified preferred areas for cuts of which most of us on here would approve.

This early-doors policy, along with its sibling pronouncements on eduction and welfare, will start the long job of restoring structure to a society badly in need of rebuilding.

TGF UKIP

August 23rd, 2008 6:32pm Report this comment

Cuffleyburgers, with the exception of your dismissal of Trident, I agree with every word of a brilliant analysis and agenda.

And Peter - "the Tories storming into larger and larger poll leads." True but an analytically dispassionate hack would also be pointing out just how soft and patchy those poll leads are.

Voters will rightly always be reluctant to vote for parties and leaders who don't seem to really believe in very much. Conviction politics is what convinces electors and if these people really were conservatives they would not just have no difficulty, they would be positively enthusiastic, to present a conservative case along the lines set out by Cuffleyburgers above.

That's the point, though, these people are not conservatives they are simply a Tory brand of social democrats who have no wish to steer too far from the existing path.

Tim

August 23rd, 2008 8:28pm Report this comment

The Tories need to communicate to the voters at large that they can't afford five more years of Brown and Labour, whether Osborne (who has never had a proper job) is the man to do that I very much doubt it.

As Obama has realised in the US, a fresh change is all very well but someone with experience settles the voters nerves.

j.finnigan

August 23rd, 2008 8:48pm Report this comment

"I'm tempted to say that Conservative governments are normally elected to clear up the mess left by Labour governments." George Osborne HERE HERE

John Page

August 23rd, 2008 9:10pm Report this comment

I'd like to see the Tories start to pick off individual unpopular policies and say, "We'll repeal this" - like fortnightly collections, for example.

emma2000

August 23rd, 2008 10:41pm Report this comment

Get rid of every unelected, unnecessary Regional Assembly, that should save quite a bit and all of the above too.

Verity

August 24th, 2008 12:35am Report this comment

Every quango axed in the neck, without anaesthetic. Pink slips, closing down, sorry the taxpayers don't want to give you a final bonus. 'Bye.

But this is fantasyland, because Dave and his EUSSR One Worlders are keen to get their feet under the table. They're not interested in the voters.

That's why Dave developed his lists of privileged candidates -the alarmingly undemocratic A-listers. Never mind what the Tory voters and local associations want, Dave wants to look good for the Nomenklatura he hopes to join.

PJ

August 25th, 2008 9:59pm Report this comment

Some strange comments above.

Doc S claims that GPs gained 'at most' £10k from the new contract, whereas the figures clearly show that it was in excess of £30k. Even that doesn't show the full extent of the cost increase as out-of-hours cover increased exponentially in cost.

As for the 'run down of the NHS before 1997' - this a myth. The only party ever to cut spending on the NHS was Labour (pre 1979). Margaret Thatcher more than doubled NHS spending and finally lost patience with the lack of increased output for the increased input and hence (belatedly) introduced limited market reforms. Labour promptly reversed these only to re-introduce them later.

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