Will Brown go early to avoid the voters' verdict

hogarth zombie

I can't see any argument against him going now

T

Porter is v. close to the Brown camp...

MikeA

Media speculation will reach fever pitch during Bournemouth so he has to commit either way. The only slight cloud would be for him to campaign on a "mandate poll" would be staggering given he has been at the very centre of goverment for a decade and was effectively responsible for all domestic policy. The Conservative have to turn to the election into a poll on Brown's extensive record. Unfortunately NuLabs friends in the BBC and Murdoch press will not help.

David Lindsay

Abstain. Unless you are lucky enough to live in Liverpool West Derby or other constituencies details of which would be very welcome (davidaslindsay@hotmail.com) for publication on http://davidaslindsay.blogspot.com and elsewhere, this is a time to exercise your democratic right not to vote, and thus with any luck bring about the collapse of, in particular, the Tories. That would lead rapidly to the collapse of Labour, since what would then be the point of it, deprived of the Tory bogeyman? And the Lib Dems are wholly parasitic on the other two. None of them deserves your vote. So don't give it to any of them, and make them go away.

Tiberius

I have found over the years that an evening watching Question Time followed by This Week (after taking in week's pieces from the Telegraph Group's journalists of course!)leaves one with a sound basis on which to judge the political state of affairs. The return of both programmes last night, with a little bit of perspective after Brown's coronation, was eagerly awaited and didn't disappoint. We simply have to acknowledge that Brown has assumed a status akin to that of Apollo. He has indeed, as is being mentioned on a number of blogs, managed to bring most of the media in behind him, with no worthwhile responsibility being layed at his door for terrorism, foot and mouth, interest rate rises, prison overcrowding, violent crime, or the banking crisis. Charles Kennedy acknowledged as much, and Michael Portillo, who will criticize Cameron when there is justification, remarked that while the Tory leader's response to Northern Rock was sound, he didn't have any chance of holding Brown to account because it was not reported (I know it wasn't shown on ITN or the BBC late evening news on Monday because I watched for it). So, even if the Cameron haters get their wish to jettison him, I can see there being no prospect of any replacement reducing Brown's preponderance, unless they can "do something" about the way the media is behaving. It really does feel like Soviet state TV and Pravda. I know some people feel "things will get worse", and Brown may suffer as a result. Northern Rock shows that may not be the case. It appears that voters feel Brown is the serious personality to deal with our forecast difficulties, even if he is the cause of many of them. Quite honestly, it's not surprising that so many of the expat DT posters show pity (or schadenfreude)towards those of us left on these islands. As for "mandate" or "verdict", it won't matter unless the media changes its position. But I still don't think Brown will call an October election.

J H Holloway

I would have thought that Broon's people have to make a very knife-edge judgment. If the economy stutters or slumps, Broon will be left (quite rightly) left holding the baby. But that will make is vey difficult for him to run and win.
The other option is for his people to work against's Broon's deeply cautious nature and get him to run a snap poll. And then there's the SNP 's rise to consider....

Hoi Polloi

The greatest fear is that of the unknown and Brown will be only too well aware that there is at present a great unknown lurking - it's called Foot and Mouth. It nearly screwed Blair's plans up in 2001 and then it wasn't so overtly the Government's fault. Conventionally elections have got to be held during a period of reasonable weather which gives Brown a very narrow window now before Winter arrives in November. Very, very risky for someone as cautious as Brown. I suspect he would very much like to go now given the absence of a serious "Opposition" but the fear of the foot and mouth unknown will prove too great. Nature's revenge for all those animals so unnecessarily slaughtered for Labour's electoral convenience in 2001?

Perry

Excuse my ignorance, - but at this stage, - WERE an election to be called, - just what would people who voted Tory be voting for? I know what I would LIKE to vote for, but that’s not the same. // Conversely, voting for Noo Layba would, in those so minded, (one presumes), ensure a measure of stability and continued access to the ‘Good Life’ (sic).