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Thursday, 28th August 2008

The leadership buzz has fizzled out, but for how long?

Peter Hoskin 8:51am

Do read John Retoul's excellent article in the Independent today.  In it, he picks up on how the leadership speculation surrounding Brown has slowly fizzled out over the past few weeks.  Things are certainly quieter than those heady days in late July, when David Miliband was plastering his ambitions all over the comment pages of the Guardian.

There are a number of theories as to why, including: 1) It's still the recess, the story was always going to die down until Parliament reconvened; 2) David Miliband and the other would-be leaders have had to defer their plotting in respect of the Georgia conflict; and 3) Labour have ever so slightly warmed towards the PM after what was - by Brown's standards - a quietly effective performance in Beijing.

But as Rentoul points out, the leadership speculation may have fizzled out but the problems which caused it in the first place haven't. The Tories have actually strengthened their poll lead in August; the economy's in an increasingly parlous state, and many are laying the blame at Brown's feet; another by-election disaster looms for Labour; and, as Rentoul puts it, "the political news is being driven by the vote-losing tendency of the Labour Party, agitating for a windfall tax on the energy companies".  This cocktail ensures that Brown's current reprieve - whatever its cause - won't last long.

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TrevorH

August 28th, 2008 9:36am Report this comment

"Its the economy stupid"

James J

August 28th, 2008 9:48am Report this comment

Or could it have been the general publics’ incredulity that anyone, outside the political and media class, would think Miliband would appeal to the electorate?

john problem

August 28th, 2008 9:50am Report this comment

Somewhere it was let out of the bag recently that the big bananas in the party are lining up one of the women in the cabinet to run against Brown. Perhaps all has gone quiet while this initiative is being refined. The arguments in favour of this were that a woman would represent a dramtic change, that Cameron would be less effective against a woman and that as all three were journalists the media would be kinder. Cherchez la femme, Gordon.

Ian C

August 28th, 2008 10:24am Report this comment

It's not IF but WHEN?

David C

August 28th, 2008 10:35am Report this comment

About the 'pocket' Foreign Secretary; Miliband's increasing profile over Georgia contrasts with Brown's McCavity act.
If all Miliband can realistically do is talk, then at least he is talking.
Rentoul posits Brown's performance in China as ‘quietly effective’ in the eyes of Labour MPs From this is possible to draw a number of points:
1. They are an easy audience to please (They made a mistake in chairing Brown to No.10 - they know it and are in denial. Labour MPs will do almost anything to avoid the truth)
2. The disconnect between the Labour Party and the voting public is wide, and judging by the opinion polls, growing wider.
3. Brown was almost invisible to the public in China. Johnson easily outshone him. But when Brown did appear (in Afghanistan, with the servicemen, and on the airplane, greeting the returning Olympic Team) He would be seen as attempting to bask in the reflection of other people's efforts - which will not endear him to the majority, who have already taken a dislike to the man.

John Rentoul is wrong on a major point. The longer Brown stays, the harder he will be to get rid of.

The failure of Labour to act during the Summer; the apparent rejection of the Miliband advances, the grasping at straws of a 'quietly effective China performance', the talk of competing and opposing policies over Energy, Housing, Foreign and Home affairs are evidence that Labour is divided over its way forward and as Labour is politically adrift, they will cleave to Brown as the least worst option (after all; they are still in denial about their wrong choice of him as leader).
Fear creates inertia and Labour is frightened. They will not depose Brown and will be caught between the Cyanean Rocks of their own failed policies and the onrushing election.

Gordon has to go

August 28th, 2008 10:42am Report this comment

Yes, it's a good article. But I think Miliband judged his interventuion to perfection. He knew, back then, that the mood for defenstration wasn't quite there but he did enough to make people (including Polly Toynbee etc) realise that there was a big upside.

But he could not have sustained that over the summer without it becoming a back-me-or-sack-me issue when the timing wasn't right.
The issue hasn't gone away and September will be a ride.

Nicholas

August 28th, 2008 11:32am Report this comment

David C I venture you give the Labour Party too much credence for actually being able to plan anything. They are a shambles and any output from them is shambolic.

Brown has created a climate of fear in his cabinet, as shown by Milliband's "so weak" attempt at a putsch that became a puff of hot air. The rest just parrot the risible "getting on with the job" (of wrecking this country) and follow the ego-centric personality cult that Brown pursues. The greatest effort from any of them is to weave the lies and spin their misguided puerility believes will fool the public to turn their fortunes around. If they spent a tenth of the effort on tackling real issues that they do on their propaganda they might have something to show for it.

To attribute a plan or scheme to any of these spineless, useless creatures is beyond credibility. But Brown won't go. He may be a dithering bumbler but his appetite for power is stubborn and without scruples. When the idiots in the Labour party chaired him into No.10 they presented Britain with its very own Robert Mugabe.

Watch this space.

David C

August 28th, 2008 1:37pm Report this comment

Nicholas:
I find nothing in your analysis to disagree with.
I once thought that the Labour Party would stampede in the direction of a new leader if there was 'one last straw'. But all the 'last straws' have come and gone and all they whisper of is the next straw. Even Rentoul's article is just another piece of wishful thinking.
Labour is too frightened to do anything other than crumble.
Brown will be there at the end, planning his next imaginary term as PM.

anthony a

August 28th, 2008 3:18pm Report this comment

None of the cabinet have enough guts to do anything about Brown.

Charles Vintcent

August 28th, 2008 4:08pm Report this comment

Failure Brown will go down in history as the PM that never was. Not elected; not effective; not coherent and never there when problems arise as a result of his negative leadership. failure Brown is the Tories' best weapon.

Charles Vintcent

August 28th, 2008 4:09pm Report this comment

Failure Brown will go down in history as the PM that never was. Not elected; not effective; not coherent and never there when problems arise as a result of his negative leadership. failure Brown is the Tories' best weapon.

Verity

August 28th, 2008 4:47pm Report this comment

I agree. Brown will not go. And no one has the nerve, or indeed the cunning, to force him out. They all want to be leader, but they don't know what to do.

It wasn't supposed to be like this ...

TGF UKIP

August 28th, 2008 7:27pm Report this comment

Nicholas, as he usually is, is spot on. Gordon, however, warped and strange creature though he may be, is no mug and it's all been very quiet both at Suffolk and since Suffolk. Balls disappears from the political news stories as does Carter with no stories, not even in PR Week.

Something's going on.

All I'm saying is don't be too surprised to be surprised by Gordon.

Teledu

August 28th, 2008 9:00pm Report this comment

Just by the by, went to a pop concert in Cardiff earlier this week and there was this guy wearing a t-shirt with the words "I'm not interested in politics...BUT I HATE NEW LABOUR"
A sign that, whatever the press or Brown sycophants say, the natives ARE getting restless.

Silent Hunter

August 30th, 2008 11:25pm Report this comment

Everyone HATES LABOUR!

Tell us something we don't know.

Why they don't just call themselves the New Nazi Party and be done with it, I just don't know.

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