What Brown's speech will tell us about his election plans
12:30pm
The word is that Gordon Brown’s speech will not mention when he might go to the country. Indeed, judging by his rather tetchy performance on the Today Programme this morning he appears to regretting letting the speculation reach such a fever pitch. But his address will still give us plenty of clues to his thinking. If it is stuffed with, to borrow a phrase, eye-catching initiatives with which he can be personally associated such as this deep clean of hospitals and a reversal on 24 hour drinking, which he hinted heavily at this morning, then it will suggest that he really is going to go. But if he sets out a more long term vision then he is likely waiting until the spring.
One other shift worth noting is that November 1st seems to be emerging as the new favoured autumn date. The thinking is that it would undercut Gordon’s new father of the nation image to call an election during the Tory conference and, perhaps more importantly, many families will be away on half term on October 25th which could have unwanted effects on Labour turn-out.
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ACT
September 24th, 2007 1:34pm Report this commentIf it's this year, I think it'll be November not October. That notwithstanding, oh how I wish Tory hacks would just one for minute actually think about who and what Labour supporters are. "Many families will be away on half term on October 25th which could have unwanted effects on Labour turn-out". Really? Worse than the effect it will have on Tory turn-out? As, after all, which party's supporters do we suppose are more prone to leaving the country at half term? Mmmmm?
James Forsyth
September 24th, 2007 2:06pm Report this commentACT, The issue isn't who is abroad but who is outside their own constituency. Anyway, it injects unpredictably into the result which is what the party leading in the polls wants to avoid.
Tiberius
September 24th, 2007 2:06pm Report this commentYou'd be amazed at the answer to your question in respect of the Wrekin marginal, ACT!
James I don't know how long you spent in the States, but these days for a UK-resident, albeit out of their constituency on the day of poll voter, a postal vote is extraordinarily easy to obtain. I repeat: had the poll been at half term, more Tory votes would have been lost than Labour votes. That's certain.
Alan Hill
September 24th, 2007 2:41pm Report this commentWhenever the election is held we will be discussing it ad nauseam which will be a distraction from other matters. So if GB wants to do any government he'd be better getting th election out of the way. NULAB are bound to win anyway and it's only a question of whether they have a "large" or "very large" majority.
James Forsyth
September 24th, 2007 4:32pm Report this commentknow that it is easy to obtain a postal vote. But it still requires some organization and motivation and so makes reading the polls even harder
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