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Wednesday, 3rd September 2008

Primetime for Palin

James Forsyth 2:47pm

The press are always declaring speeches ‘the most important of the campaign so far’ but Sarah Palin’s tonight really is. John McCain took a huge gamble in picking the first-term governor of Alaska as his running mate and even without the revelations of the past few days tonight would be important for her given that she has to both introduce herself to the nation and show that she is a credible second in line for the presidency. But with parts of the media trying, disgustingly, to turn her family into a Jerry Springer special  and some serious and generally worrying revelations about the vetting process that led to her selection her speech has become crucial to McCain’s electoral prospects. It is her chance to show the public who she really is, to define herself before the media freakshow do the job for her.

If Palin knocks it out of the park it will be hard for the media to dismiss her as a tokenistic pick and the questions about how she was chosen will seem less important. Palin will have shown that she is a potentially-game changing pick and that McCain’s decision was bold not rash. But if she strikes out, the McCain campaign is in serious trouble. The Palin pick will be used to raise questions about McCain’s judgement and the decision-making process he will bring to the White House. All of a sudden, McCain will appear to be the risky choice.

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Chris

September 3rd, 2008 3:32pm Report this comment

Happily, the MSM no longer owns the narrative to the same degree. Justin Webb and the New York Times have their lies already written, no doubt, but the blogosphere will rip them new ones. All they and their partners in crime do these days is reinforce the lunacy of the Dems and their European lackeys.

Rob

September 3rd, 2008 4:01pm Report this comment

There's a funny double-standard at play here James. The Republicans and other right-wing commnetators have long argued that Barack Obama is "just words". Everyone accepts that he knows how to make a speech. He pretty much knocks it out of the park every time he swings from a podium, but that is not reason enough to make him President. It's a fair argument.

But today - as in your post - all of Palin's serious and very worrying deficiences can be neutralised if she delivers at the convention in much the same way as someone like, you know, Barack Obama.

I suspect sdhe will give a barnstorming speech which will delight the crowd and play well on TV. It will do nothing to deal with the central problem, however, of her woeful inexperience to be a one 72 year old man away from the Presidency of the United States.

thomas

September 3rd, 2008 4:02pm Report this comment

What revelations? That her daughter is preganant? Who cares? What else? Name one 'revelation'. Everyone knew about the 'troopergate' scandal, including McCain's team, they have decided there's nothing to it. For the rest, they are non-stories that have proven to be fabrications, lies, smears or laughably trivial. The article you linked to shows nothing 'worrying' about the vetting, just that they didn't know about her pregnant daughter until shortly before the choice. But why on earth should that be relevant? And why should a mother tell anyone that about her daughter until she absolutely has to? The Palin business is a scandalous attempt by Obama's supporters in the media to get her off the ticket, because they know she will take blue-collar voters in the Mid-West and many non-partisan women from Obama, and she will boost red-state turnout and therefore make it impossible for Obama to make inroads into Republican states.

Guy Incognito

September 3rd, 2008 4:23pm Report this comment

@Rob: Her "woeful inexperience" includes running a town so successfully that she was re-elected and then won election to the governorship of a state. This record of inexperience is as nothing next to the woeful inexperience of the Democratic nomination for the presidency itself, whose most significant decision to date has been the choice of a running mate - and his choice was made in order to compensate for his own obvious lack of executive experience. Plus, if he wins, we won't even have the safety zone of a 72-year-old's heart-beat to keep him from the presidency.

Verity

September 3rd, 2008 4:25pm Report this comment

James, what "revelations"? Other than what KOS and the Obama factory cobbled up? She has a teenage daughter who's pregnant and is going to marry the father. HOLD THE FRONT PAGE! How many of America's 301m people are in exactly the same position?

She's a 45-year old woman who had a baby - which was not a secret baby; she'd been pregnant for nine months - who was born with Down's Syndrome. HOLD THE FRONT PAGE!

Verity

September 3rd, 2008 4:28pm Report this comment

Rob, who thinks he is being sly and manipulative, writes: "serious and very worrying deficiences can be neutralised".

Name one "serious and VERY WORRYING deficiency."

I cannot see a one, and I have been following Governor Palin for longer than you, I suspect, have been feverishly Googling Kos.

Verity

September 3rd, 2008 4:36pm Report this comment

Thomas - You're right. Obama fights very dirty. He's exactly the scuzzball he looks like.

He has had a bunch of sites set up with promulgate scandal about Governor Palin, then has them shut down fast so they can't be traced. Computer genius Charles Johnson, who owns littlegreenfootballs.com has done some hi-tech detecting and identified a couple of them. But they come and go like the morning dew... This is vicious.

Unlike Obama, who is egotisical and extemely touchy, Sarah Palin has been a real olitician with a solid record of achievements over 20 years (not jus lolling back in her chair and voting "Present" a la Obama) and she knows when to let things run off her back.

Rob

September 3rd, 2008 4:46pm Report this comment

Verity - I think I am being "sly and manipulative"? Huh? I've read you on here before and you don't get any less weird.

Anyway, aside from the experience issue itself (which I guess we disagree in) I was pointing out the double standard when it comes to the speech. I suspect you don't see it.

Yours apparently slyly,

Rob

Verity

September 3rd, 2008 5:22pm Report this comment

When Sarah Palin took office as the Mayor of Wasilla, she reduced her own salary.

In addition, she reduced property taxes by 40%. By lowering the costs of doing business, she managed to hoover new commercial enterprises into the city and enrich it.

She was regarded as so innovative and so effective, that she was elected President of the Alasaka Conference of Mayors. This never gets mentioned, but this is peer approval and worth a lot in the eyes of the electorate.

Hysteria

September 3rd, 2008 5:42pm Report this comment

Let's assume SP "knocks it out of the park" tonight. So that is 1-1 with BO who can talk a good job.

But the difference is that SP has actual political and leadership experience, whereas BO has er - not so much.

So I make that 1-0 to SP on that-so overall a win for the Republican nominee.

Given the emphasis on perception and image these days I think the speech will be a defining moment in the campaign - if it goes bad it could be grim for McCain - but if it goes well - it will be the springboard for a GOP victory in November

Ted Tedford

September 3rd, 2008 5:59pm Report this comment

Rob: I can't speak for Verity, but I don't see the double standard. If Mrs Palin stands up and blethers a lot of drivel about 'change' and 'hope' and 'healing', but offers no evidence that she can deliver on such promises and gives no tangible reason to vote McCain-Palin, then you'll have a point.

But, unlike Mr Obama, she doesn't need to ask the electorate to vote for her because of her eloquence or her charisma, because she has executive experience and a record for doing the stuff she says she will, as opposed to just posturing. It's not a question of 'disagreeing' about her experience: it's as plain as a pikestaff that she has more - and more relevant - experience of actually running stuff than the rest of the candidates put together. Her problem is, paradoxically, that she has a track record of decisions to attack, unlike Mr Obama, whose biggest problems are the little Freudian slips like teenage pregnancies as "punishment", or having been consistently wrong on Iraq - fortunately of no actual consequence, since he had no responsibility to implement the highly irresponsible policies he advocated.

ndm

September 3rd, 2008 6:06pm Report this comment

James Forsyth writes:

If Palin knocks it out of the park it will be hard for the media to dismiss her as a tokenistic pick and the questions about how she was chosen will seem less important

I don't think this is true. Mike Tomsaky, the Guardian's American editor, is probably far closer to the mark when he writes:

About the speech: I would imagine she'll do fine and get good reviews and reduce the heat for a few days or hours. At this point all she has to do is show up with two eyes and her nose and mouth in the right place and string two sentences together, which I assume she can do.

The odds of her making a mess of a pre-written speech read off a teleprompter is next to nil - and everyone knows that. Consequently, the risk of her speech is not to the Democratic supporters' assertion she is unqualified but rather to the Republican supporters assertion that she is qualified - because if she does flub it ....

Rob

September 3rd, 2008 6:14pm Report this comment

Hysteria - fair enough that would be one one across the conventions if she delivers (I think she will). I think the crux of the difference of opinion comes down to whether Palin's experience in Alasks plus her attitudes and stature beyond her experience outweigh Obama's in the Senate and as revealed in his time on the national stage.

I would argue that it's not even close as befits their respective positions on the tickets. I could explain all the reasons why I believe Obama is of a different class of politician and individual than Palin but I am sure they have ben rehearsed many times and we all understand them if not share them. They have nothig to do with gender by the way (and your opposition is not about race)

I can not imagine Palin as President and would be worried for the world if it it fell to her not just because of her views but irrespective of them. she just isn't of the right quality (unlike, for example, Hilary Clinton or John Mccain)

Can you in all honesty say you feel the same about Obama? you don't want him and disagree with him but I bet you admire him more than you let on. he is a figure of stature albeit one you disagre with. Palin is not.

Cue the Verity attack dog post . . .

David Allen

September 3rd, 2008 6:17pm Report this comment

Mayor Rudi Guilliani made a very good point on TV last night. When asked (a la Rob) about Palin's experience, he answered that by the end of the first day as a town counsellor in Wasilla, Alaska, Mrs. Palin had just gained 100% more executive experience than Obama has now. By the end of the second day as a town counsellor she had doubled the executive experience Obama has today.

She has gone on to run a state very successfully and cleaned out a corrupt Republican administration. The only thing Obama has run successfully, and we can't be too sure of that, is his bath water. He been a community organiser - whatever that may be - and a politician with a very weak voting record. Chicago, a Democratic Party stronghold, is notorious as having the most corrupt politicians in the US. Obama has had ample opportunity to cleaned out the Democrat's Augean stables there, but instead has used the party machinery to move up the political ladder.

Apart from a formidible talent at self-promotion, Obama has nothing very much to show for his years in the Illinois and US senates.

Interesting too, that the Democrats are trying to unfavourably compare Obama with Mrs. Palin. Why? He is their presidential candidate. She is the Republican vice-presidential candidate.

I believe the Democrats to be very nervous.

JONNY

September 3rd, 2008 6:27pm Report this comment

I must admit to being OVERWHELMED by Palin's in-depth worldwide political experience.

Just scratching my head in disbelief why most of the rest of the world hasn't yet got round to noticing it.

Rob

September 3rd, 2008 6:30pm Report this comment

Ted - I just don't buy the running stuff qualification. Maybe if she'd run a major state for at least a full term on the back of other accomplishments plus a coherent track record of views and attitudes to the issues facing the world. But she has a breif record which is looking less reformist than it once did (she was for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it) and which includes a track record of abuse of power (troopergate and other firings and threats).

As for Obama I think his opponents oppose his views but pretend to doubt his stature.

JONNY

September 3rd, 2008 6:48pm Report this comment

I've heard the Governorship of Alaska described as 'a part-time job.'
Okay, it's more than that.
But it isn't the same as being Governor of New York or California now is it.
Or for that matter Mayor of London, Boris' job.
Nobody's yet saying Boris should lead the world.

Verity

September 3rd, 2008 7:09pm Report this comment

Ted Telford - Needless to say, I enjoyed your post. One small point of protocol, if you will forgive me. Sarah Palin is not "Mrs Palin". She is Governor Palin. When she takes national office, she will be Vice President Palin.

Rudy Guiliani made a brilliant analogy. Obama has never run anything. He has spent 10 years voting "Present" in the state senate then in the Senate in DC. Must have put a lot of thought into his vote.

BTW, I see the vicious left published her home phone number on the internet, plus her Social Security No.

Running really, really scared.

Puncheon

September 3rd, 2008 7:13pm Report this comment

I am not an expert on US politics, but I know self-serving machine politicians when I see them, and Obama is exactly that. He is Blair on stilts. On the other hand Palin comes across as a genuine human being with real views. I don't agree with all of them, but so what, who agrees 100% with other folks' views anyway. Also, she has had much more real political/administrative experience than Obama or his sidekick. The lefty whinging about Palin reminds me of Kinnock's ludicrous criticism of Ronald Reagan - that he had no political experience, when he had been Governor of a state almost as large as western Europe, while Kinnock had done nothing more demanding than running the Cardiff Tech students union. The lefties really are a hoot. I can't wait for her to be VP and ultimately President. Yes I know, what has it got to do with a Brit like me. But all of us are US constitiuents whether we have a vote or not.

Craig Strachan

September 3rd, 2008 7:14pm Report this comment

Verity: "In addition, she reduced property taxes by 40%."

And increased sales taxes to pay for her boondoggle of a sports complex, the cost of which was inflated by the need to ultimately pay 10x what the land was worth.

Hysteria

September 3rd, 2008 7:16pm Report this comment

Rob - thanks for making assumptions about my views.

Um - you are right in that my views of all the candidates have nothing to do with gender or race.

In BO I just see so many echoes of Blair. Long on rhetoric and the ability to please a crowd (and yes , if you like, "leadership qualities") - but short on potential to actually deliver.

By contrast SP has a track record of leading - it has been said before but it needs re-stating - the emphasis on her mayorality is to completely miss the point that she is Governor of Alaska, a hugely important state. Her knowledge of the issues in the oil industry , the contractual matters, investment problems, environmental risks etc etc are all significantly more than any of the other candidates.

(By the way I work for "big oil" and know a little of what I speak in this regard)

So actually no - I don't "admire him more than I let on" - he makes my toes curl only slightly less than watching Brown. To me he comes across as arrogant, self serving and frankly at times duplicitous. What he says in private (that has been revealed a couple of times during the primaries) is at odds with his public pronouncements. ("Clinging to guns" is but one example)

Put that with his long standing relationship with his swivel-eyed pastor, and, well, you get the picture.

I know little about Ms Palin - but what I see I like - and let's be honest - most working women put men to shame in their ability to juggle multiple issues.

Maybe she has caught everyone by surprise - but I reckon she will appeal to a LOT of Americans - hard working, honest (apparently), rooted in the American culture (don't belittle the number of "hockey Moms" out there who will relate to a mother of five.)

And she runs Alaska.......

So - apologies for the long post - must go lie down..!

Craig Strachan

September 3rd, 2008 7:22pm Report this comment

Who's going to introduce her - Harriet Miers?

Verity

September 3rd, 2008 7:34pm Report this comment

I enjoyed your post Puncheon, and i have said from the first day he leapt onto the national stage expecting to thrill everyone down o their toes, that he is Blairesque.

I wonder how much research he put into his decision to vote "Present" on all those years of voting in the state senate and then the national Senate. Must have kept his researchers on the hop!

BTW, Hysteria, enjoyed your post, but Sarah Palin's title is not Ms. It's Governor. She is addressed directly as, "Governor Palin".

Kos is in overdrive.

Oscar

September 3rd, 2008 9:02pm Report this comment

ndm - if delivering a successful speech is such a cynch - why can't Gordon Brown do it?

TGF UKIP

September 3rd, 2008 9:07pm Report this comment

While I do not think it matters a toss who wins here in 09/10, New Labour or Blue Labour I do think it matters hugely who wins over there on 4th November, McCain or Obama and that is why I find an Obama victory excuciatingly hard to even comtemplate.

Having been seeming to let things slip, McCain recovered amazingly well during August to the point where the polls were to all extents level pre the Democrat Convention and even that appeared to give Obama no more than the minimally acceptable 8% bounce.

Last week, though, the Obama potential nightmare had long been expected to be the Clintons and their looming threat over the Convention and the Obama candidacy. Fortunately for him however, the Clintons by and large behaved themselves and especially with the Mile High speech it emerged intact as the Obama Convention.

What McCain needed now more than ever, therefore, was an opportunity to have the media spotlight focused entirely on him so he could spell out his positive message and get a real boost from this week.

Instead, as every post so far on this section has demonstrated the focus is entirely on the Bristol Palin sideshow.

The US media, overwhelmingly Democratic in its instincts, has been handed an entirely unnecessary diversion and legitimate reason to question McCain's judgement.

While he seems to have been extraordinarily badly served by his senior staff and his advisers the final judgement was his and unless Sarah Palin manages to produce an absolutely superwoman performance between now and 4th November the McCain judgement on vital decisions will rightly be open to question.

Hysteria

September 3rd, 2008 10:13pm Report this comment

Oscar - good point - how many of us I wonder have addressed audiences of >500 - let alone thousands live and millions on TV - this speech is going to be a test in and of itself...

BCS

September 3rd, 2008 10:31pm Report this comment

This is nonsense James. Whether or not Palin makes a spectacular speech, she will remain an inexperienced and perhaps ethically dubious figure apparently bereft of interest in, or knowledge of, foreign policy. Still more, whether or not she makes a decent speech should not affect our view of McCain's judgment. Even if Palin turns out to be exceptionally distinguished, his choice will still have been a wild and reckless gamble - especially given the remarkable lack of vetting. The Frum quip you featured in an earlier post makes this point nicely.

TGF UKIP

September 3rd, 2008 11:00pm Report this comment

Why the fuck do any of us bother posting on this website and try participating in a debate when posts do not appear, if at all, until many hours later. And Pete, don't give me any more of that tired crap about gremlins - it's like a cracked record by now.

Verity

September 4th, 2008 12:26am Report this comment

TGF UKIP Good heavens! I didn't have you down for the excitable type.

Kos and the whole leftie vicious press has been out and about but couldn't find anything solid, so, as is the habit of the malicious, spiteful left, they have turned violent. They published the Governor's home telephone number. Then they published he Social Security number.

They found out her husband got a ticket for drunk driving TWENTY YEARS AGO. And even then, he wasn't arrested.

I am going to watch her speak this evening and I'm certain she'll walk on to the stage a governor ... and walk off ... A ***STAR***!!

There's a lot of money invested in Obama. Hundreds of millions ... There are internet websites being set up and linked to legitimate sites and publishing lies and being taken down a few hours later, making them untraceable. It makes you wonder who's financing all this labour-intensive computer activity, really, doesn't it?

Pete Hoskin

September 4th, 2008 12:50am Report this comment

TGF UKIP: We haven't been having any technical problems today; everything's been approved as it comes in; and it all seems to be showing at my end. What comments of yours are you referring to? You do realise you can always send me an email on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk if you feel something hasn't got through.

And as for gremlins, my mentions of website problems may be "tired" but they've also always been true. And I expect they'll be true again in the future.

Incidentally, there'll often be a delay for comments made fairly late at night - we might not be awake to approve them.

Verity

September 4th, 2008 1:06am Report this comment

WOO HOOO!!!!!!!!!! Pete, I hope you're awake to clear this. Here is one of the things the Governor is going to say this evening when she talks about her experience ...

On her experience as a public servant:

"I had the privilege of living most of my life in a small town. I was just your average hockey mom, and signed up for the PTA because I wanted to make my kids’ public education better. When I ran for city council, I didn’t need focus groups and voter profiles because I knew those voters, and knew their families, too. Before I became governor of the great state of Alaska, I was mayor of my hometown. And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves. I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities."

Verity

September 4th, 2008 1:09am Report this comment

Hot damn, this speech is going to be good!

"On why she is going to Washington, D.C.:

"I’m not a member of the permanent political establishment. And I’ve learned quickly, these past few days, that if you’re not a member in good standing of the Washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone. But here’s a little news flash for all those reporters and commentators: I’m not going to Washington to seek their good opinion - I’m going to Washington to serve the people of this country."

(Credit: off the Drudge Report.)

Hysteria

September 4th, 2008 1:16am Report this comment

Verity - I too will be watching - there is actually a count-down timer on the screen and the pundits are getting in to a right tizzy!!!!

Things are going to get interesting..............

Verity

September 4th, 2008 1:35am Report this comment

Hysteria - I believe there will be a video about her at 10:30 Eastern, then she talks at 10:45. Are you watching on TV or C-span?

Nick Kaplan

September 4th, 2008 3:03am Report this comment

Rob; I do not buy the “heartbeat away from the Presidency” argument that is currently the popular anti-Palin nonsense being put out by the Obamaniacs. Firstly the argument that McCain’s age should be a concern is simply nonsense. One of the most energetic and effective Presidents the US has ever had was Ronald Reagan whose second term started when he was 73 (a year older than McCain is now). Secondly it is not an argument in favour of Obama to complain Palin has no foreign policy experience, if Senator Barack Obama is elected, he will not be a heartbeat away from the presidency, his would be the heartbeat of the president, and he has as little experience of foreign policy as Palin! Further few Presidents have had said foreign policy experience before being elected not FDR, not Reagan, etc. In fact, the last Secretary of War (the old title of Secretaries of Defence) to later become President of the United States was William Howard Taft, a hundred years ago. The last Secretary of State to become President of the United States was James Buchanan, a century and a half ago. Of more importance is executive experience, which only Plain has with her mayoralty and her governorship of Alaska (which currently has an 80% approval rating indicating she is doing a good job!)

Nick Kaplan

September 4th, 2008 12:27pm Report this comment

Rob states “I believe Obama is of a different class of politician and individual than Palin.” But on what basis could you possibly reach this conclusion? Obama has never lead anything or done anything of political significance (before being nominated as the democratic candidate) in his short and previously insignificant career. One can only conclude that your faith in Obama’s ability comes only from what he says, as it certainly has not come from anything he has ever done. People like Rob are all too willing to judge Barack Obama on the basis of his election-year rhetoric, rather than on the record of what he has advocated and done during the past two decades. But Obama’s past actions and associations raise serious doubts about his character. Obama has consistently associated with and taken advice from deranged people who despise the country he seeks to lead (Ayer’s and Wright). His association with Rezcko raises serious questions about his judgement. His flip-flopping over the troop withdrawal from Iraq and whether the surge has worked shows that he lacks any clear strategy for foreign policy. He claims to be a candidate that will heal division and appeal to the centre, yet he has the most left-wing voting record in the senate. He is made out to be the man to absolve America for its divisive past on the issue of race, but for 20 years he has been a member of (and donator to) a black power church whose very essence is the promotion of victimhood and the ideology of racial division. He is on record as favouring the kinds of justices who make policy, not just carry out laws. No matter how he may "refine" his position on this issue, for ideological reasons he voted against the confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts, who was easily confirmed by more than three-quarters of the Senators.
It was once said, "When I speak I put on a mask. When I act, I am forced to take it off." Too many people like Rob are too willing to judge Obama by the content of what he promises. They need to look at the track record of Obama's actions.

Verity

September 4th, 2008 8:24pm Report this comment

Harry Truman had been a draper in a small town in Missouri. He had no foreign experience. He appointed Dwight G Eisenhower Supreme Allied Commander (or words to that effect) in Europe, and he ordered bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

John McCain has more foreign experience than Barack Obama. President Reagan had very strong executive experience as the Governor of California, but no foreign experience.

John Kennedy had no foreign experience, except having been overseas on vacations, like tens of millions of us, a couple of times. Yet he made the right decision about Cuba.

Barack Obama is so immature, he had a fake Presidential seal made for his lectern. How absolutely infantile is that? He was pretending to be president when the whole world knows he isn't. Then he pretended to be Ronald Reagan in the final stages of the Cold War. (Thank you, Angela Merckel, for not letting him speak at the Brandenburg Gate.)

Then he gave a Billy Graham style evangelical rally to himself in Denver.

The man is utterly delusional because he seems to believe all these roles when he's playing them. He also seems to think that he is somehow "owed" the US presidency. Barack Obama is a moonbat. He's handsome, but between him and Norman Bates, toss-up.

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