Brown's sinking, but where are the alternatives?
Peter Hoskin 10:23amThe story's familiar by now. A poll comes out; it puts the Tories 20-ish points ahead of Labour; and it contains a whole load of below-the-headline findings which are personally damaging for Gordon Brown. Today's Independent/ComRes poll certainly follows that pattern. It has the Tories on 44 percent, Labour on 25 percent and the Lib Dems on 17 percent. But the sting for Brown is in findings such as that 20 percent of people like Labour but not him, whilst only 8 percent like him but not his party. And that 34 percent of Labour voters say that they'd vote Labour in spite of Brown, and only 3 percent say they're backing the party because of its leader.
Polly Toynbee again recognises the electoral drag that Brown represents in her Guardian article today - and she does so in no uncertain terms. Here's the first paragraph:
"The smell of death around this government is so overpowering it seems to have anaesthetised them all. One bungle follows another and yet those about to die sit silently by. So is that it - the great September relaunch, the great economic recovery plan?"
But who's the alternative? The ComRes poll also asks how people would vote if different figures were leading Labour. If Miliband were leader, Labour's share would remain at 25 percent. Straw would clock 25 percent as well; Johnson or Harman, 23 percent; and Ed Balls would score 22 percent. Only Tony Blair would significantly close the gap between Labour and the Tories - with him as leader, Labour's share would stand at 31 percent.
Of course, those "imagine that someone else is leader; how would you vote"-type questions are among the most unscientific around. But it's still revealing that these latest results are almost identical to those published by the Telegraph / YouGov over a month ago. It hints at the inertia gripping Labour. A handful of Labour ministers have tentatively signalled that they might - perhaps, possibly - have designs on the party leadership, but they're unwilling to follow-through and develop those signals into full-blown claims. The result? No alternatives have truly captured the imagination of Labour members or of voters more generally. And that could just about save Brown yet.
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Comments
Liz Brown
September 6th, 2008 11:26amThe only realistic alternative is to call a GE - but I think I would prefer Zanulab to sink further into the mire first. It is just a pity that they drag us down with them
mitch
September 6th, 2008 12:50pmBut who eh? its like choosing your favourite turd.
David C
September 6th, 2008 12:55pmThat is the greatest joke of all.
'Cometh the hour, cometh the man'.
The old guard have issued warning after warning: Labour is dying on its feet.
Somebody in its ranks must feel that they can make a difference, that they can drag the remnants of the party to higher ground.
11 years of power and there is nobody.
Nobody of courage.
Nobody of personal integrity.
Nobody with enough base ambition to slit the tyrant's throat.
There will be books written about this period of British Politics.
People in the Labour Party won't be writing them.
People in the Labour Party won't be reading them.
There won't be a Labour Party.
Seasurfer1
September 6th, 2008 1:03pmThe falling pound is ramming up the cost of Imports, which Tesco and Co thrives on. This will inflame a further round of unpallitable price rises for the Housewife.
In addition the first round of oil increases has not worked itself into retail prices. This will hit Tesco and co. shortly and add further woe to the electorates feel of inflation.
I would guess that Browns legacy will be to ditch the Pound and go for the Euro as parity of 1/1 is soon reached.
John
September 6th, 2008 1:51pmPeter, there is no hyphen in 'follow through' when used as a verb rather than as a modifier.
I would prefer an election now, (a) because we have an unelected PM, (b) because ZL would be destroyed in the polls.
Water
September 6th, 2008 2:18pmA GE, despite the fact it won't happen, would be good. Though most on here have been saying that for well over a year.
Verity
September 6th, 2008 2:46pmIt's even bleaker than the picture Pete painted.
There is no alternative.
Anywhere.
David Cameron is no alternative. He is more of the same one-worlder, thought Fascist, manipulative, controlling socialism.
There is no alternative.
It's grim.
Compare with the bracing air of liberty, hope, daring and dynamism from across the Atlantic.
The Laughing Cavalier
September 6th, 2008 2:48pmNo one will challenge Brown. Labour is going to be defeated at the next election and will then be out of power for more than a decade. The younger contenders don't want to be brought down by that and the older ones don't have the guts or the honour to take over now and try to mitigate the defeat. They want to be able to say it wasn't their fault when the rout occurs. We're stuck with Brown until 2010. To make it worse, Seasurfer1 is probably right about the Euro. It looks as though Brown's final act will be to destroy the value of the savings we have left (if we have any left by then).
Tiberius
September 6th, 2008 4:35pmVerity: TGF UKIP has clearly infiltrated your consciousness!
Cameron's Tories are already committed to three policy areas which should reassure you (education, welfare, and family taxation in IHT, SD, and MPA).
Be patient about more.
Verity
September 6th, 2008 4:46pmTiberiius - what about national independence? Answer will there come none. Education, welfare and family taxation will be on the European model under Cameron, and under Cameron, the sword will be put through the heart of our dear Britain.
This will ensure him annointment as one of the Nomenklatura and an extremely healthy income until he draws his last breath.
David Cameron is no saviour.
Tiberius - with respect, I like TGI UKIP's posts, but I came to these conclusions all by myself, before TGI UKIP came to my notice.
Unless there is a huge, huge vote for the BNP, who are the only ones standing up for Britain, the next election will finish our country off.
The Norwegians alone will remain Norwegian.
Tiberius
September 6th, 2008 5:44pmVerity: I like TGF's posts too. Uniformity of opinion is the last thing we want. My connecting him to you was light-hearted, btw.
Marian C
September 6th, 2008 5:56pmThe Laughing Cavalier - I agree with you, nobody wants to pick up the poisoned chalice (so to speak).
Nicholas
September 6th, 2008 7:02pmWhere is John Bull when you need him?
Blairsupporter
September 6th, 2008 8:54pmOh if only Blair were still an MP.................
Tankus
September 6th, 2008 10:28pmshould'nt have arrested those beardy's the other week .... ......should have been given a lottery grant , a millets discount voucher and Osama's mobile phone number ...! innit...!
Diablo
September 6th, 2008 11:37pmI wish Verity would actually come and live in the UK and smell the putrid stench of a decaying Labour government. Then she might realise why many of us are prepared to trust the Cameron-led Conservatives to at least fumigate the place and clear the stables of all the s**t that has built up.
Oh, and if she could stop rabbiting on about the supposed great, sunlit uplands that she sees in the USA, that would be a bonus!
EUSSR GO HOME
September 7th, 2008 12:19amYes, Seasurfer and Laughing Cavalier. I think that's why the ************'s hanging on. Dump the euro on us and then there's nothing left for anybody.
Why aren't we out demonstrating, loudly and repeatedly, for REFERENDUM AND GENERAL ELECTION NOW?
Marian C
September 7th, 2008 11:32amIs it possible for a vote of no confidence in this crap government?
Hysteria
September 7th, 2008 10:18pmBlairsupporter
September 6th, 2008 8:54pm
Oh if only Blair were still an MP.................
you're kidding - right?
cuffleyburgers
September 8th, 2008 8:29amRe the EUR, please don't laugh but there have been repeated promises of no EUR without a referendum.
Hold on, hold on, I know , but the point is that whereas they (dishonestly) were able to say this isn't the constitution, this is the Lisbon treaty which has got several words different therefore our solemn promise doesn't count, here they wouldn't be able to say that. I mean even Goebbels had to have something to hang his lies onto and he was much smarter than anybody in bottler Brown's cabinet.
Therefore I think we might yet avoid the EUR.
Of course the alternative narrative has Brown resisting entry in the Blair years so that it could be him to "take britain into the EUR" and thereby earn himself a place in the history books, alongside Heath as one of the greatest traitors in history or as he doubtless sees it on planet Brown, visionary statesman who did what was right for britain despite the resistance from lesser intellects, little englanders (sic) and xenophobes.
If it could be him who signed away the last remaining shreds of our freedom via the Constitreaty then his triumph would be complete and his place in the pantheon on a higher pedestal than B'liar would be assured.
Don't forget that his hold on reality is, ahem, fragile...