The danger of a Tory Brown bubble
James Forsyth 2:07pm
The new Populus poll shows that 74 percent of the electorate thinks Gordon Brown is a bad Prime Minister. As Peter Riddell—not a man prone to over-statement—writes in The Times today, “The public have given up on Gordon Brown.”
This is, obviously, in one sense great news for the Tories. Running against an incumbent who is a busted flush during a recession is about as good as it gets for an opposition. But the extent of Brown’s unpopularity should cause the Tories the odd nervous moment.
Imagine for a second if Labour did get its act together and dump Brown. All of a sudden the 67 percent of voters who think it’s time for a change would have been offered something. The new Labour leader could try and present himself, or herself, as the change. (In this respect, the limited name recognition of most of Brown’s possible successors is actually a plus point.)
To guard against this, the Tories need to make sure that they genuinely ‘own change’. As Obama is finding, an aroma of change can be overpowered quite quickly. As I say in the magazine this week, the Tories need to do what Obama failed to do: offer a radical, concrete agenda for change that the other side can’t trump with a change in personnel.
To be fair, the Tories have made some progress on this front. The Tories’ school policy could transform education for the better in this country and produce a new tranche of Tory voters in the same way that the right to buy did. The Tories also have firm ideas about what they want do with welfare and family policy. But beyond that the cupboard is rather bare. Even David Cameron admits that the party is “not there yet” on health and on the economy the Tories seem to still be adjusting to the new economic realities. Elsewhere, the party is being held back by its reluctance to make any spending commitments for fear of Labour attacking them for making ‘unfunded’ pledges. As Danny Finkelstein argued the other day, the Tories should not be constrained by this bogus debate.
The Tories will head to Birmingham in good heart and rightly so, they have had a quite remarkable twelve months. But the Tories should constantly ask themselves not how they plan to beat Brown’s discredited and tired ministry but how they would combat a reinvigorated Labour party under a dynamic new leader. That’s the real test of whether the Cameron poll lead is built to last.
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BP
September 11th, 2008 2:34pm Report this commentIts not just Brown. I'm sick of the sight and sound of ALL of them. The longer Labour politicians insist on remaining in office the greater will be their punishment for denying the electorate the right to a democratic vote.
C Powell
September 11th, 2008 2:49pm Report this comment"Elsewhere, the party is being held back by its reluctance to make any spending commitments for fear of Labour attacking them for making ‘unfunded’ pledges"
But there are plenty of commitments it could say in relation to the role of the state, our freedoms and liberties which would give people a real indication that the sort of Britain they want is a less nasty, officious and intrusive one than the one we have now.
The Milburn article and the reactions to it (and to similar articles like it) clearly show that people are heartily fed up of a state which "criminalises the population, spies on them and seeks to suck up every aspect of human activity into its sphere of influence" and want this changed. There is a big constituency for the Tories on this if they would only grab it. Even better, it could be presented as the state getting off people's backs and so costing them less.
Why won't the Tories come out more openly in favour of our freedoms? Why won't they promise to reverse the authoritarian and illiberal measures Labour has introduced? Why won't they say that they will stop central and town hall functionaries with gold-plated pensions bossing and bullying us?
I'm beginning to think that the Tories really don't care about these matters; that they don't really object to a large controlling state provided it's a Tory one. But being spied on by a Tory is no better than being spied on by Labour. So why vote Tory then?
Chuck Unsworth
September 11th, 2008 3:11pm Report this commentWild assumptions being made here. Not only about the possibility of Labour dumping Brown, but also the possibility of finding and installing a new leader - bearing in mind the potential outcry from the electorate over a second 'unelected' PM - in the shortening timescale to the next Election. If it were to come to pass the Labour Party and its supporters would have to display monumental discipline and real expertise in Governance.
On the basis of the past decade's experience this is never going to happen. In any event - which of them is Leadership material? Which of them represents truly radical change?
NickL
September 11th, 2008 3:14pm Report this commentThe problem for Labour, though, is that they have already offered "change" by replacing Blair with Brown - after the experience of Brown, voters are unlikely to see a new Labour leader as representing any change. However, the Conservatives would be wise to do as you say and offer a raft of policies embodying a clear change of direction.
michelle
September 11th, 2008 3:34pm Report this commentIt is so funny you are referring to Obama in the past tense.
Way to jump the gun here.
Jack Burton on The Pork Chop Express
September 11th, 2008 4:37pm Report this commentI had a bath after a curry and six Kingfishers last night: I could tell you a lot more about the dangers of a Brown bubble.
Tiberius
September 11th, 2008 5:28pm Report this commentJack; is that you, Perry?
Keith
September 11th, 2008 6:34pm Report this commentC Powell is right again. The Tories must stand up and tell people what they're about. The longer they keep hiding their lights under the bushel, the more Brown and his minions can recoup.
Wilfred
September 11th, 2008 7:14pm Report this comment"...a reinvigorated Labour party under a dynamic new leader"?
Er ....... do you actually have someone in mind?
Cogito Ergosum
September 11th, 2008 10:27pm Report this comment"Bonfire of controls". That was the Tory slogan in 1951, and we need to do it again.
C Powell
September 12th, 2008 9:56am Report this commentCogito: "Set the people free" was also a Tory slogan from that time. It too would do for now.
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