As Brown flounders, the Tories can fine-tune their message
Peter Hoskin 1:21am
It's yet another 20-ish point for the Tories in the latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times. They're on 46 percent (up 1 on last month); Labour are on 27 (up 2); and the Lib Dems on 16 (down 2). I guess it's fair to say that Brown's economic recovery package - or what we've seen of it so far - isn't making much difference.
The problem for Brown is that the foreseeable future doesn't present many opportunities to close the gap. He'd have pencilled in the party conference as a chance to do something - anything - to get some of the public back on side; be it a wave of policy announcements or a rousing speech. Problem is, the leadership speculation - which lay dormant only temporarily - is back with a vengeance, and should now completely dominate the conference narrative.
Of course, a lack of opportunites for Brown translates to greater opportunities for the Tories. As the Government performs its ferrets-in-a-sack act, the Tories have plenty of space to outline a policy agenda which will not only solidify their current support but attract a few more swing voters as well. On that front, one finding in the YouGov poll stands out. 28% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote Conservative if the Tories announced they'd cut public spending to make room for tax cuts. Only 7 percent said they'd be less likely.
It's good news for team Osborne - who's expected to outline such a move in his conference speech - and another sign that the "Labour investment vs. Tory cuts" message of the past decade is breaking down. But the YouGov poll shows that Tories still have work to do on the economic policy front. 19% of respondents thought a Tory government will bring lower taxes for “people like me”, whilst 23% thought their taxes would be increased.
In truth, this scepticism about the Tories' ability to cut taxes is most likely because they haven't yet fleshed out their economic framework - a nebulous phrase like "sharing the proceeds growth" just doesn't really say much about anything. But now that formula is more or less obsolete, the Tories have got to start convincing people that - under their new programme - any spending cuts will bring appreciable benefits; and that those benefits will be felt across society.
Luckily for the Tories, the Government's difficulties mean both that they can spend time, with few distractions, fine-tuning this message, and that they have a more receptive audience than ever. But with that, there's even more pressure to pitch the message right. Will the Tories do so? We'll find out at the end of the month, when Cameron and Osborne take to the stage in Birmingham.
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Martin Morrow
September 14th, 2008 12:15pm Report this commentFine tune what message?
mckenzie
September 14th, 2008 12:26pm Report this commentI'm sorry mate, but fine tune what message?
I'm not receiving any message. I can see that the arrogance of the Nulabour machine has finally caused it to choke on it's own vomit, but there has been NO effective challenge from the opposition: The next alpha male just seems to be biding his time, ands that's it. This is the ONLY message that I am getting.
mckenzie
September 14th, 2008 12:53pm Report this commentMy worse fear is this, that when (not if) Dave gets the job, the accusations will be justified that he just sat in the wings. And when he takes the helm we will see a repeat performance of Brown's interpretation of Popeye the Sailor Man lost at sea with no compass and devoid of spinach.
We need need LEADERSHIP and we need it NOW.
Nicholas
September 14th, 2008 2:13pm Report this commentNew Labour up 2? Who on God's green earth are the gibbering idiots still rooting for the shambles that is New Labour? They can't all be public sector workers, employees of the BBC and Guardian, or teachers - can they?
I'm starting to see DC as Ted Heath. The well meaning clot who sold us a pup. I hope I'm wrong.
Verity
September 14th, 2008 3:26pm Report this commentI tuned in to this comment section also intending to write "What message?"
Dave has no message other than he wants to be prime minister and he isn't going to let anyone get in his way, not least the voters. He has no stated positions on anything, and from what we can infer from things he has said, he doesn't hate socialism and thought fascism with every fibre of his being. This is the man who commanded a standing ovation in Parliament for the most wicked person ever to govern Britain, and proudly proclaimed that he is his heir.
This is the man who commanded the 'A' list. To hell with local associations and their local knowledge and our ancient habits. Dave imposed the fascim of political correctness on them, which is so appallingly undemocratic that I was astonished that there wasn't an open revolt.
One important thing to bear in mind about David Cameron is, his ambition is not to be prime minister of Britain. His ambition is to be a lifetime member of the unaccountable Nomenklatura, imposing laws from behind closed doors in Brussels. If he ever makes it, he'll take to is like a duck to water.
Has Britain ever had such a meagre choice in who governs them?
Carol-Ann
September 14th, 2008 6:49pm Report this commentWhere is Cameron at the moment? They're not in power yet and in case they have forgotten they're in OPPOSITION and should be all over the media hammering this Government. Why so silent? Cameron should come out and say this carry on is damaging Britain and that the people of this country are not getting the kind of governance they are entitled to. Cameron needs to show statesman qualities to counteract the lightweight tag that appereared in the findings of the Yougov/channel 4 poll.
Nicholas
September 14th, 2008 8:53pm Report this commentCarol-Ann, I think the reasons are twofold:-
1. Cameron is playing the long game, not rocking the boat but standing by while New Labour scuttle it themselves - (could be risky though with such a devious, unprincipled cabal in the cabinet); and
2. The media (especially BBC) who are doing a risible line in Brownist propaganda whilst burying Tory opinion for the most part. I have noticed that even where Conservative mouths do appear they are often second or third raters. Most of the time it is chummy media/New Labour navel gazing of the "Oooh, woe is we, what is OUR party going to do to make sure WE stay in power?" type nonsense as though the rest of Britain should think as they do and Labour government is the natural state of the country.
Like you, now that New Labour is falling I think we need to see a few more opposition attack dogs going for their throats.
Verity
September 15th, 2008 2:54am Report this commentNicholas - your diagnosis is a little sunny, I fear. Dave doesn't have the stomach for conflict. He is awaiting his turn, that's all. He's keeping his place in the queue and not offending anyone.
Matt
September 15th, 2008 11:57am Report this commentVerity @2.54. I love your certainty. Your guess is as valuable as Nicholas' guess. Unless you have insight into DC's thoughts that is not granted to us mere mortals. Could be bad, could be good. No real reason to think that you are right that I can see. At least Nicholas' comments have nuance.
I'd would be amazed if everything was black and white as you seem to think.
Shades of grey Verity. Shades of grey.
Verity
September 15th, 2008 4:27pm Report this commentNo, Matt. You are too trusting. There's no nuance in Cameron. He wants to be PM, no matter what mantle he has to wear to get in.
Rush-is-Right
September 15th, 2008 6:23pm Report this commentTed Heath. The well meaning clot who sold us a pup. (Nicholas 2.13pm on 14/9)
Well meaning? Are you sure about that?
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