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Thursday, 18th September 2008

Brown's dangerous interventionism

James Forsyth 4:52pm

Yesterday, Downing Street was keen to take the credit for the Lloyd’s HBOS deal. But Brown is playing a dangerous game. First of all, there is the issue highlighted by Alphaville of whether there has been tinkering with the deal to make sure that Edinburgh remains a major UK financial centre. It also appears that someone has leaned on Lloyds not to make the maximum efficiency savings.

Then, there is the question of what Brown is doing apparently telling Lloyds to lend in the way that HBOS did. The FT’s Westminster blog reports Brown as saying, “We’ve also insisted on assurances from the new company [Lloyds/HBOS] about their mortgage lending in the market place so they will not reduce it.”  Now, as the FT points out, Lloyds was in a position to step in because it had been more cautious, so Brown’s comments suggest he doesn’t realise what the problem was.

By trying to take the credit for the deal, Brown has ensured that he’ll cop the blame if anything goes wrong—for example, Europe stepping in to block the deal on competition grounds. Once again, Brown has created a potentially serious political problem for himself for the sake of a short-lived, short-term advantage.

Update: Iain Martin has an important post over at Three Line Whip on how Brown and Darling's desire to protect various of the more dignified functions of the Bank of Scotland might have been part of their Glenrothes by-election strategy.

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Simon

September 18th, 2008 5:05pm Report this comment

Brown's behaviour through this have been anti-competitive and possibly open to legal challenge.

Disreputable

Liz Brown

September 18th, 2008 5:23pm Report this comment

The man is despicable, dishonest and disengenous to boot. I await the Jonah effect

In despair

September 18th, 2008 5:27pm Report this comment

It's unbelievable.

He thinks he can keep the whole charade going by telling them not to cut jobs and to keep handing out mortgages people will likely struggle to pay.

In other words, HBOA, as you were.

Crisis, what crisis?

Laughing Larry

September 18th, 2008 5:37pm Report this comment

We'll see if the market don't like the deal. If the share goes under two then the Lloyds Board will get some hard flack. They should have nationalised HBoS and then re-floated it in 2011. That would have been the brave decision. They could have merged it with Northern Crock. More jobs would have been saved and the market less dominated. This is a bad for Britain and Team GB should be hammered for letting the housing boom get out of control with its false inflation targetting and attack on savings which made a lot of people invest in buy-to-let. GB should be tarred and feathered.

Max Kaye

September 18th, 2008 5:40pm Report this comment

.... and he abolished 'bust', too.

Dean

September 18th, 2008 5:43pm Report this comment

Your determination to make Gordon Brown the central story in all this apparently knows no bounds! In case you hadn't noticed, the real story is the most serious systemic financial crisis to hit the West since the Great Depression! Do you imagine that the UK Government could have allowed the opportunity of a Lloyds buy out pass, if it was the only alternative to the collapse of a major High Street bank? And do you really think that it would, in fact, be socially acceptable for Lloyds to start foreclosing on millions of Halifax mortgage customers? Articles like this only go to show that the true face of Conservatism hasn't really changed - you are all still (unbelievably!) wedded to the dogma of free market fundamentalism that has been so thoroughly discredited by the credit crunch (one hopes for good!) And no, I am not saying this as a Labour supporter. If you want an object lesson in how pragmatic governments should respond to this type of crisis, read Anatole Kaletsky's article in today's Times. It is the false belief that the market can look after its own that has got us all into this mess!

richardj

September 18th, 2008 5:54pm Report this comment

As Lloyds TSB shares are 15% down today and maybe more tomorrow, maybe the shareholders will not approve the merger - what price Black and Brown then?

Pete, Scotland

September 18th, 2008 6:04pm Report this comment

The bank has given a guarantee to provide mortgages to first time buyers in a market that is falling.

Eh! How about reducing the tax burden and giving some spending power back.

Mak

September 18th, 2008 6:08pm Report this comment

Dean you make some good points, however Brown himself is obsessed by putting himself at the centre of the story in order to do all he can to save his political neck. This behaviour of his is well documented. He gets all he deserves.

Man_on_Richmond_Bridge

September 18th, 2008 6:10pm Report this comment

Lads the deal is not done and dusted

See the attached link
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2008/09/get-out-clause.html

mac

September 18th, 2008 6:37pm Report this comment

This would be the same Anatole Kaletsky who only 2 weeks ago opined in his Times column (www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4649026.ece):"What on earth, then, was Mr Darling talking about when he described the present economic crisis as the worst since 1948? ... This is a failing that [the Chancellor] can never live down". That's punditry in the Newsnight Mason mould.

salieri

September 18th, 2008 6:39pm Report this comment

The likelihood of non-interference by Brown is as great as his knowledge of how banking actually works. He is and always will be a meddlesome, Pooterish amateur, eager to proclaim his knowledge and inacapable of admitting his ignorance.

RobertD

September 18th, 2008 6:48pm Report this comment

Given that there are major European banks involved in the UK markets it is clearly open to the EU Competition authorities to review the deal. Their guidance is that any deal resulting in a concentration of over 25% in any marketplace (i.e. UK mortgages, UK retail savings) is prima face anti-competitive.

A government sponsored deal behind closed doors and without the opportunity for other major European banks to bid for HBOS is a near certainty for investigation.

Gordon's waiver of UK competition rules is unlikely to stand unchallenged.

Rex Burr

September 18th, 2008 7:19pm Report this comment

Dean. I agree with your sceptical approach to free market economics but the financial nonsense of recent years happened on Brown’s watch. He not only allowed it to happen, but also encouraged it and bathed in its false glory.
Remember how he did not want to stifle innovation in financial markets.
During the past decade he has accepted the plaudits of his fawning ministers for his supposed masterly management of the economy, of which the City was a significant part.
Now, suddenly, it was nothing to do with him. All those others got it wrong.
Without the credit boom financed by the City, brown had nothing.
Hypocrisy.

TGF UKIP

September 18th, 2008 7:35pm Report this comment

richardj is right, this deal now has the feeling of the touch of Jonah about it.

Interesting to see the intraday chart of HBOS share price. Starts out in upper 140s knocks on door of 230 at midday finishes at 172.6.

Offer is .83 of a Lloyds share for each HBOS share, worth 232 this morning but 197 tonight with HBOS closing price still 13% below that.

Clearly it's not just Guido asking a lot of awkward questions.

TrevorsDen

September 18th, 2008 7:56pm Report this comment

Given that all the regulators and EU authorities are panic stricken like rabbits in a cars headlights right now I doubt that they will object to this -- but what about another merger in the future to match this one ??

Lets face it everyone is making this up as we go along. So much for an end to boom and bust. Where's prudence?

Will brown take credit for mthe redundancies?

Laughing Larry

September 18th, 2008 8:11pm Report this comment

Anatole Kaletsky - should not be taken seriously. TV news now use him as a pundit, when he has been consistently wrong on the Credit Crunch. He should be fired from the Times.

Pete, Scotland

September 18th, 2008 8:28pm Report this comment

I am trying to get my head round what is wrong with short selling.

All else being equal,if a company is sound why would it attract short selling?

Why would I take on shares that I was thought were going to drop in value?

Labour says that this is mess that needs to sorted out. Where have they been for the last eleven years?

Dirty Euro

September 18th, 2008 10:46pm Report this comment

I like the spectator. But why it on one article the PM is insulted for having noting to do with fixing the deal and on the next he is criticised for interventionism. This is anti labour bais.

carol42

September 19th, 2008 12:22am Report this comment

I have savings with HBOS and was fairly happy to leave it there - until now. If Jonah is in any way involved I am taking them out as he is a jinx on anything he touches.

Wookie

September 19th, 2008 9:56am Report this comment

I quote Lando Carlrissian on this one "I've got a bad feeling about this"

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