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Friday, 19th September 2008

Reasons for Brown to be cheerful

Fraser Nelson 11:14am

The Brown demise is on a downward rollercoaster trajectory: it stabilises before it plunges again. I suspect that a period of stabilisation, and maybe even an upswing, is now on the cards.

Yesterday went very well for him, and from the quotes I have seen he managed to get through even Jeff Randall on the Sky interview to be broadcast at 8pm tonight. Also, he may soon have another merger deal to point to.  EDF, which walked away from British Energy in July, will meet during the Labour Party conference to discuss a higher offer.

Creating an entente nuclear is one of Brown's main ambitions - something which justifies his tough talk about "long-term decisions", and which, best of all, is a wedge issue with the Tories. He could genuinely claim some credit this time, as he has personal contacts with EDF and his government owns 35 per cent stake.

P.S. I originally wrote that Brown's Sky interview was on at 8pm yesterday evening.  Apologies - it's actually on at 8pm tonight.

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bill

September 19th, 2008 11:24am Report this comment

What did Jeff say?

Simon

September 19th, 2008 11:28am Report this comment

We are about to enter a weekend of further leadership speculation. Any unity next week will merely be a facade. We all know this. The Labour Party is not a happy place - that much is very clear. They are not going to come together.

The Nuclear issue is potentially toxic for Brown - there are many on his own side who are passionately opposed to any further nuclear developments.

We also have more to come out about the role his financial regulatory system has had to play in the recent turmoil.

It ain't over yet!

Nick Kaplan

September 19th, 2008 12:00pm Report this comment

According to Dianne Abbot, if Labour loses the coming by-election then the Cabinet will turn against Brown. If true then Browns position is very precarious.

Anom

September 19th, 2008 12:09pm Report this comment

Is this not a dead cat bounce?

BrianSJ

September 19th, 2008 12:23pm Report this comment

The nuclear saga does include parting with Westinghouse for less than £3Bn to Toshiba just before we really needed them.
The bank merger is a long way from home as a financial or political success.

Oracle

September 19th, 2008 12:41pm Report this comment

The gods are toying with him (and, by extension, us).

TrevorsDen

September 19th, 2008 12:50pm Report this comment

Go to the Telegraph website to see just how Jeff regarded Browns answers.

A good day for Brown? Well you might think that if you are mentally deranged.

A good day when we have just seen the banking indudtry turned upside down with a forced merger (forced by the govt) which will grossly distort competition and see 20,000 tomn 40,000 job losses (didtorted against England in favour of Scotland) -- THIS is a good day?

Is a good day like its a good day having your toes amputated in stead of your foot.

TrevorsDen

September 19th, 2008 1:01pm Report this comment

"he has personal contacts with EDF " -- you mean he is putting billions of pounds worth of work his brothers way?? Why don't you just come right out with it??

Patrick

September 19th, 2008 1:25pm Report this comment

Then you must have seen a different programme Fraser. Jeff Randall asked the right questions and received the usual suspects answer from the PM. Please read Jeff's excellent article in the Daily Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/19/ccjeff119.xml

which is rather at odds with the tone of your article

Richard Holloway

September 19th, 2008 1:31pm Report this comment

I think he will get a few days respite before conference (as he seems to be getting), before a event at conference triggering the whole shebang. My money is on a woeful speech on the final day, which will get the longest applause ever and then the bickering will really kick off. Either that, or one of the tory policy announcements will resonate with the public, they will be another strong poll lead and the speculation will begin all over again.

That's not to say Brown will actually go. He's not going until May 2010, in a huge landslide loss. Why? Because Labour hasn't got anyone to replace him.

Seasurfer1

September 19th, 2008 2:01pm Report this comment

Fraser, It is only a 100 Billion Dollar Breather, compliments of the World Banks, oiling their banking systems. Monday onwards will bring more volatility.
It is something we are used too with our Deluded PM- flooding the market with funny money, otherwise known as NATIONAL DEBT.

Ike

September 19th, 2008 2:04pm Report this comment

The EDF energy deal is a laughing stock in the business world. The bulk of the business was sold off for almost nothing and we now have the spectacle of nuclear power being run by a foreign country. Yes, the French have the expertise we need but what an indictment of the dither and delay over nuclear.

After a decade of 'what to do?' the Government finally woke up and saw that if we didn't do something, the Russians could turn the lights out on us.

It's just one farce after another.

Seasurfer1

September 19th, 2008 2:04pm Report this comment

I thought Jeff Randall mauled him in the Daily Telegraph?

John

September 19th, 2008 2:20pm Report this comment

In the clips I saw on Sky, Gordon Brown talks about the off balance sheet positions, of banks, (SIVs)as he has only just heard about them. Who was chancellor for the last ten years? What about PFI? I think he comes over very badly but you did hype him up.

Fraser Nelson

September 19th, 2008 3:12pm Report this comment

Gents, I'm not saying he deserves this. But Brown is an expert at exploting the fault line between the political and financial worlds. To read some of the press you'd think Victor Blank runs Lloyds and that Brown orchestrated the takeover over a dry martini at a City reception. I'm just saying that he got away with it. For as long as Lloyds need favours from him (laws passed, competition laws suspended) they'll let him take his bow. If I was Lloyds, I would.

Patrick, Brown doesn't survive Jeff's typically excellent article. But he wasn't mangled in the interview to the extent I would have liked. His defence mechanism for interviews - ignore and recite - means its hard to spar with him. Anyway watch it at 8pm tonight and we'll come back here to compare notes.

Fraser Nelson

September 19th, 2008 3:13pm Report this comment

Nick, ignore this Glenrothes nonsense. Labour's defeat there is a formality, the SNP already hold the constituency for the Scottish Parliament. Talking up Glenrothes is a way for the rebels to buy time.

Ian C

September 19th, 2008 3:43pm Report this comment

And there's the small matter of the Glenrothes by-election and Scotland just lost its largest employer to one south of the border. Diane Abbott "understands that if Glenrothes is lost the cabinet will then move against him" - from This Week.

Frank Pulley

September 19th, 2008 4:10pm Report this comment

I worry about you Mr Nelson, put the telescope to your good eye, please.

mac

September 19th, 2008 5:26pm Report this comment

'Gents', Fraser? How very dare you, Mr cod-Prescott. Gents? That's a pissoir. "Gentlemen', please!

simon s

September 20th, 2008 4:39pm Report this comment

The tories are going easy on Brown - because they want him to remain in power. Surely Labour mp's must know this.

EUSSR GO HOME

September 21st, 2008 4:22am Report this comment

Ee, Wot a luvly picture of Our Gordo!
[He must have seen something really nasty in the Gulag - to make him grimace like that.]

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