The Labour form book: Alan Johnson

Coffee House is running a series of posts on the contenders to succeed Gordon Brown as Labour party leader.  The latest is below.  Click here for our profile of David Miliband, and here for Jon Cruddas.

Alan Johnson, 58, Secretary of State for Health

Pros

Impossible to hate: Johnson is, as one political operative put it to me, the only member of the Cabinet who when he appears on TV  doesn’t make the public want to throw something at the set. After 11 years in government, having a leader who the public are at least prepared to listened to would be a major boon for Labour. While dampening the public’s enthusiasm for kicking the bums out, could prevent the Tories from winning a two-term majority.

Acceptable to all wings of the party: Johnson isn’t an ideologue and his Union roots and role in the Blair government makes him acceptable to the full spectrum of Labour opinion. He also hasn’t been a participant in the Blairite-Brownite briefing wars which should help him in any effort to unify the party—a key task for any new leader considering how bloody a task persuading Brown to step down is going to be.

A contrast to both Brown and Cameron: Johnson is laid back, English and, well, normal—a change from Brown. But he also has working class roots, a contrast to Cameron. Indeed, if anyone in the Labour Party could play the class card against Cameron and Osborne successfully it is Johnson. His humour and relaxed manner means that he could do it in a genuinely funny, light-hearted way rather than in the ham-fisted way that Labour did during the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

Cons

Is he up to it and up for it? Johnson famously said on Desert Island Discs, when asked why he didn’t run for the leadership last time round, "I don't think I would have been good enough, frankly. I don't think I've got the capabilities.” This quote would be regularly thrown at him if he ran for the leadership or became PM; although Johnson’s humour could help him deflect the question. On top of this there are rumours in Westminster that Johnson’s confidence was knocked for six by losing in the deputy leadership race to Harriet Harman and that the fire has gone out of his belly.

Doesn’t poll well: Every time a media organisation conducts a focus group or a poll, it turns out that Johnson doesn’t come across anywhere near as well as one would expect. The relaxed manner and the cheeky chappie approach that the press finds so appealing seems to be taken by the public as a evidence of a lack of seriousness. This could be a particularly acute problem given the current economic uncertainty.

Caved in to the unions on public sector pensions: There are two big political things Johnson has achieved. One was helping steer tuition fees through the Commons, the other was a deal on public sector pensions. But Johnson, negotiating for the government,  didn’t get much in the deal and the unions got pretty much what they wanted: only new recruits will be required to wait until they are 65 to receive their pension and public sector pensions will still be linked both to inflation and earnings. Those in the civil service, the NHS and working in education are also guaranteed that there will be no further changes to their pension arrangements. This leaves public sector workers with far better and more generous pension arrangements than their counterparts in the private sector. It also exacerbates the problem posed by the government’s unfunded public sector pensions’ liabilities. As the scale of this problem becomes clear, Johnson could find the finger of blame pointed at him.

MP for Hull West and Hessle since May 1997

Secretary of State for Health
2007-Present

Secretary of State for Education and Skills
2006-2007

Secretary of State for Trade and Industry/President of the Board of Trade
2005-2006

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
2004-2005

Minister for Higher Education
2003-2004

Minister of State for Employment Relations and Regions
2001-2003

Minister for Competitiveness
1999-2001

Swing required to unseat: 

17% from Labour to Lib Dem or 17.15% to Conservative

Major rebellions

None