The tectonic plates just shifted
James Forsyth 12:11pm
Alan Johnson’s interview with Alice Thomson and Rachel Sylvester changes the dynamics of the Labour leadership debate. By once again making clear that he isn’t interested in the top job and praising David Miliband in such lavish terms, Johnson has made clear that he won’t be a candidate. (Johnson admits that it was his defeat in the deputy leadership contest that “finished the little bit of ambition” he had inside him).
As Sam Coates notes, this opens up space for another contender given that Miliband is unacceptable to large chunks of the party. Sam speculates that if there is a contest it will be a straight left-right fight between Miliband and Cruddas. But I expect it will actually be a three way race with Harman or Straw running as a middle ground, unity candidate. Harman’s positioning in the last week has been typically astute. She has been sounding—unlike her cabinet colleagues—increasingly warm about Gordon as the week goes on, suggesting that she is aiming to secure the loyalist vote in a post-Brown leadership election.
The other noteworthy thing about the interview is just how weak Brown’s position is. Johnson describes Brown as “the best person at the moment” given the current financial turmoil. We are hearing this sentiment from a lot of cabinet minister at the moment and they do appear to be hinting that once the current crisis calms down the attempts to remove Brown will start up again with renewed vigour. Johnson also states that Brown will serve only one term as PM, something I do not believe we have heard from Brown himself. The Brownites have semi-publicy suggested that their man will only fight one election as PM. But there is a subtle but important difference between the two statements.
Johnson openly admits that he’s “never been a great Brown cheerleader” and pokes fun at Brown in a way it is hard to imagine him doing this time last year. Take his comments about Brown’s appearance:
“I think Gordon has a nice smile. He worked on it as well – he paid quite a lot of money for that smile.”
One suspects Gordon wasn’t smiling when he read this interview.
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David Lindsay
September 20th, 2008 3:24pm Report this commentNo one else could get the seventy nominations, and the idea that Miliband, of all people, could win in Labour's Electoral College is utterly beyond preposterous. There is not going to be a Leadership Election.
Nor is there any need for one. If anyone admitted that the Tories could not win an overall majority next time (which they can't - their support is too heavily concentrated), or that they wouldn't change anything anyway (which, literally apart from foxhunting, they wouldn't), then what would be the point of the Labour Party? There wouldn't be any.
Labour, and New Labour above all, depends on the unanswerable character of "You'll let in the Tories". No we won't. And it wouldn't make any difference if we did.
Many on here should consider that latter point, in particular.
Austin Barry
September 20th, 2008 3:28pm Report this commentJohnson's crack about Gordon's Hollywood knashers surely amounts to lèse majesté of a significant kind. It suggests that to many of his colleagues Brown is no longer the terrifyingly powerful brute from some Caledonian Grimpen Mire, but an absurdity. And a joke about the baleful Brown's fangs shows that they have been drawn.
mitch
September 20th, 2008 3:51pm Report this commentIf gordon can get the meme going that he saved the market with his ban on short selling and his soon to be announced buy up of all the UK bad debt like the USA he will be safe and we will all be screwed because nationalisation will be back with a vengeance and gordon will paint himself as a hero.
John Miller
September 20th, 2008 4:12pm Report this commentI dunno. I think we have seen a turning point in the LloydsTSB takeover of HBOS.
Brown is rushing around telling everyone it was his idea and he made it happen.
If Moulson has done something unprecedented and averted a world recession, in a few months time, Brown will be safe.
Of course, David Cameron is probably praying for this to be the case...
The sight of Brown fighting to win an electionwill probably be a pitiful sight.
Frank Pulley
September 20th, 2008 8:29pm Report this commentAustin
A very witty (and biting) little masterpiece of metaphors.
:-)
You're wasted on this blog.
JohnAnt
September 21st, 2008 1:28am Report this comment'Paid a lot of money'? But surely Gordon will have used one of the millions of NHS dentists to which we all have much-heralded access.
That's 'herald' as in 'heraldic motif of unicorn'.
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