A temporary lull before the storm
James Forsyth 12:29pmThe mood here in Manchester is odd. No one expects a move against Brown this week but most people expect that this will be Brown’s last conference as leader. Talking to folk on the left, it seems that the one thing that could save him with the Labour party is him tacking hard to the left in the coming days.
At the same time, no one is quite sure who will succeed him; it really is all to play for. David Miliband doesn’t seem prime ministerial yet. Last night he was at the excellent New Statesman party--he could be seen in a corner briefing some of the most influential commentators on the left—but there was no presence, no sense of awe that surrounded him. I suspect that most people in the room were unaware he was there.
Harriet Harman’s stock is rapidly rising. She turned in what the Labour selectorate will have seen as an impressive performance on Adam Boluton’s show this morning. She is positioning herself perfectly for a run as the loyalist, centre ground candidate if Gordon is deposed.
Cruddas is now part of the conversation. But there remain doubts about how much he wants it and whether he can make the leap from backbencher to credible candidate.
Worryingly for Brown, the leadership conversation is now in two parts. The first is should Gordon go. The second is who should succeed him. On Marr this morning, Brown repeatedly said that he wanted to turn the next election from a referendum on this government into a choice between Labour and the Tories. But if he is to survive until the next election, he needs to change the Labour leadership question from being a referendum on him into a choice between him and a set of candidates who all have their flaws.
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Ian C
September 21st, 2008 1:05pm Report this commentA momentary reprieve of global turmoil instantly flshed full blast down the pan by care for 2 year olds a decade after he is to be ejected from office. Script writers for children's television could not have come up with anything so pointless and facile.
mark c
September 21st, 2008 3:53pm Report this commentgordon .. justgo .. get it over with so we can start repairing the damage
Hysteria
September 21st, 2008 4:38pm Report this commentit's all too depressing! The economic news means that GB may yet recover - in the minds of the electorate anyway, if things stabilise (largely due to the US measures) then GB will be seen as the Great Helmsan, who "saw us through troubled times".....
The voters in the main will not be "in" to the arcane tax policies, increased public debt etc etc - so long as house prices stabilise then perhaps - perhaps - the anti-labour feeling will not be so great.
Ironically in the US, the Republicans will get little credit and we will get the most left wing president ever (read "The Obama Nation" for the evidence).
These are depressing days for thoe of us who believe in small government.
Bill Corr
September 21st, 2008 4:54pm Report this commentProbably a majority of Speccie readers would rejoice to hear that the Harperson, whose stock "... is rapidly rising," has become Labour leader.
Such a ludicrous choice would render Labour as unelectable as it was under dear old Michael Foot.
Fergus Pickering
September 21st, 2008 7:04pm Report this commentDon't worry, Hysteria. Nobody out in the real world thinks Broon is any more than a clown. He lives in a world of his own and yet the Labour Party can't get rid of him t's only journalists who give hi anycredence abnd, after all, they have to, that's what they do. He reminds me of the Roman Emperor Vitellius. whohid in a dog kennel to escape the troops of Cameron, sorry, Vespasian. Itdidn't do him any good though. His throat was cut and his headless corpse thrown into the Tiber. Those Romans knew a thing or two.
DM
September 21st, 2008 10:08pm Report this commentHH held her own on Question Time the other night. She's one of the few labourites who will actually go on and take the flak, and always has. She did wrong foot Hague at PMQ during a stand in. Of course she is not top class PM material, but I wouldn't mind her being a stand in till the election....better sense of humour if you watch the twinkle in her eye, than Gordon.
cuffleyburgers
September 22nd, 2008 11:39am Report this commentI think Hysteria has a point.
The voting public is astonishingly fickle, as most people cannot be bovvered to think about what they expect and don't expect from government and are happy to hoover up Brown's lies as long as the essentials of life (oven ready meals, petrol, booze) are within reach.
It is essential that the sun and the News of the screws be on side.
It is that simple.
Cameron's (or the Tories in general) task, while Brown is so obviously ridiculous, is to work on them. It can be done.
The white working class (as opposed to hampstead socialists, guardianistas and benefit scroungers, are essentially fair minded, conservative folk, who abhor waste and hubris.
That is the point that must be driven home.
TGF UKIP
September 22nd, 2008 7:34pm Report this commentCuffleyburgers, as you point out Hysteria has a very valid point as do you on where the Tory effort should be targeted.
Unfortunately, though, not only has Cameron not shown the slightest interest in the C2, DE vote he has spared no effort or rhetoric in alienating it. All the things metropolitan, pc, liberal Dave is for, the white working class are against or not interested in.
Just ask Norman Tebbit.
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