As Tories head to Blackpool, Brown has a landslide lead

TGF UKIP

I've just read the full YouGov numbers in the DT and they're almost too good to be true for Gordon, absolutely crushing for Cameron and, what must really hurt in the Speccie office, a complete validation of Simon Heffer. Virtually everything SH has been saying about Dave is borne out in these grisly numbers. Not much use either hoping the Holy Grail might turn up next week, even if it did the BBC wouldn't cover it. Gordon's tanks, in the form of his spin doctors, are already encamped in the BBC News and Current Affairs offices and Damian McBride will be in Helen Boaden's ear from the second Dave stands up to speak. If Gordon doesn't go now whether it be for foot and mouth spreading or any other reason, the Tories will have had a very lucky let off.

Tiberius

I haven't read Heffer today because I bet I know what he says. There are only so many ways to say "prat" to someone. But Vicki Woods' piece was interesting, highlighting the different view of Brown between men and women. I too still think Brown will not put his position on the line, despite these polls, and would have named the date by now if he were of a mind to go for it. If he has decided that tomorrow is his deadline, one more night sleeping on it will make waiting seem even more the comfortable option.

TGF UKIP

Ah Tiberius, I rather though my mention of Heffer might bring you to the surface. Only 18% believing David Cameron "is generally in touch with concerns of people like you." Isn't that exactly what SH has been banging on about? As a one issue politician it would obviously be news to Dave that Mr & Mrs C2 do tend to debate whether it's going to be Spain or Cyprus this year and not whether they'll have a windmill or solar panels with their spare cash. On the politically interested right I suspect views of Dave differ almost according to social background. I do tend to agree with you though that an election isn't yet certain. What is, though, is that the Tories will not be allowed a clear run next week. What price, following Frank Field's piece in the DT, a review of the England's constitutional needs in Brown's Britain and I'd still bet he's going to find, next week, some red lines have been crossed in the Treaty negotiations. But Brown might go, Dave might win and I would certainly grovel and send you a bottle of champagne or whatever it is you Dave types drink. It would be your choice Tiberius.

David

Of course, Simon Heffer's agenda is so 'in touch with the people', it won a resounding victory at the last election. Er, surely it did, didn't it? Surely?

Oscar Miller

David - you are so right. Outside the Tory bubble real people like David Cameron. And nobody I know actually likes Gordon Brown. The fact is the Brown spin machine has a stranglehold on a media more fawning than I can ever remember and people are being brainwashed into Following the Leader. Cameron just did an excellent interview elegantly swatting aside Andrew Marr (who was in full attack dog mode), laying out policies that are clear, realistic and attractive. Not something Brown has ever done (has the man ever faced a hostile interview?). I don't believe the polls, I don't believe Brown intends to hold an early election and I certainly don't believe in Simon Heffer. Old clunking fist has overplayed his hand trying to sabotage this week's conference - he's put everyone on such high alert he's imposed discipline. I think Dave will triumph this week and polls as volatile as these clearly change whichever way the wind blows.