Brown's speech: live blog

1400: Welcome to our live blog of Gordon Brown's conference speech.  No sign of the man yet - he's expected to take to the stage in around ten minutes time.  Early word is that his speech is going to be of the "personal vision" rather than the "specific policy annoucement" variety.  We can, though, expect some more details on that internet announcement.

Stay tuned, then, for my thoughts, as well as analysis from James and Fraser in the conference hall.  Just keep refreshing the page to get the latest.

1410: This just in from Jon Cruddas:

"We await the speech. Meanwhile rumours abound. My favourite- the existence of a Caroline Flint martyrdom video filmed by Hazel on a hand held in a Salford cave. In the hothouse of a conference this is being taken seriously.

Rumour number two: that David M only gave 60% yesterday for fear ‘of doing a Hestletine’- why the PM’s press guy was pushing this one around to the hacks last night is beyond me. Impressive calm response from David.

The ‘Spectator/Compass Middle Class Tax Cut’ is now almost official party policy.  I fully expect it to be the cornerstone of the PM’s speech. If I were Mr Osborne I would be worried, really worried.

Last night’s Guardian do was a lively affair – the standout moment was Mandelson/McDonagh/Ryan/Flint thing going on in the corner- the plot thickens. Retreated to the bar and then bed by 2ish. As I left I saw Tom Watson MP on manouvers- he is the PM’s top political guy and runs the whole conference. He is the only person I know who can sleep standing up; a legend.

Hopefully Gordon will nail the speech."

1415: The TV cameras are spending a lot of time on David Miliband in the crowd - the leadership rumours really are threatening the overshadow Brown's speech.  No sign of Brown yet.  Expect him any minute now.

1420, James Forsyth: After Miliband’s failure to seize the moment yesterday, the stage is set for Brown. But it is crucial for Brown that he remembers that he is speaking to two audiences: the hall and the country at large. The faithful are going to love a litany of Labour achievements, the video they are playing is self-congulatory in the extreme, but the nation will want contrition and a recognition that things have gone wrong.

1423: Sarah Brown is addressing the crowd.  This is unexpected, and a little reminiscent of the American presidential race.  She introduces a video of "what Labour has achieved" so far.

1424, James Forsyth: Sarah Brown is introducing Gordon in an effort to humanise him. Sarah Brown is not someone who likes the limelight so this is a sign of how bad things are.

1427, James Forsyth: This self-congratulory video is touting the achievements of the Blair government not the Brown one.

1427, James Forsyth: Could Barack Obama have looked and sounded any less convincing than he did in that video?

1428: Here's Brown now.  His demanour: relaxed.  His tie: purple.  His teeth: luminous.  The applause seems warm.  He says "you can see why I'm proud of Sarah".  It would be sweet if it didn't feel like a desperate attempt to shore-up his beleagured premiership.

1428, James Forsyth: An almost Gore-style smooch for Sarah. Messsage: Gordon is passionate.

1430: Brown's really pushing the "I'm the best person to get us through the economic storm" message.  He says: "If some people say I'm serious.  Well, that's because there's lots to be serious about."

1434: "What happened with 10 pence, it stung me ... on the side of working families is the only place I've wanted to be. And from now on it's the only place a will be".  That sounds half-way like an apology to me.  Again, pushing the "let me get you through the hard time message".

1434, James Forsyth: Delivery poor so far. The class card is being played early, another sign of how bad things are.

1434, James Forsyth:  Vicious—and unpleasant—swipe at Cameron, “my children are people not props”

1437, James Forsyth: A mea-culpa on 10p tax and then a self-interested warning that the public won’t put up with a Labour leadership race. So far, this hasn’t sung.

1438: "In the 1990s, Tony and I asked you to change policy to meet new challenges". Showy nod to Blair - maybe to appease the Blairites.

1440: First sign that the City should be scared.  "Those who believed in the unbridled free market have been proved wrong once again".

1443, James Forsyth: Brown tries to triangulate on big government/market fundamentalism. But everything so far sounds very 1990s. Brown could have given pretty much this speech anytime in the last ten years.

1444: Talking about the "green economy" now.  Hefty commitments: 80 percent reduction in carbon emissions; 1 million new jobs in the "green services industry" (CoffeeHousers, did I hear that right?).  As usual, it's all long-term commitments.  Nothing so far on how he'll help the UK - and its families - now.

1446, James Forsyth: They love that JK Rowling money. Indeed, Labour are clinging to her and the Olympics in a hope that some of their popularity will rub off them.

1449: Brown's peddling the "3 million new jobs" line - "lives changed ... 3 million times over".  As Fraser's pointed out before, some two-thirds of those jobs have gone to immigrants.  Meanwhile, 5 million in the UK are on benefits.  British jobs for British workers, he said last year...

1451, James Forsyth: A bit of passion accompanies the ‘not by accident but by our actions’ line. ‘The real power of Labour to change lives’ is not a bad line either.

1453: Brown talks of "lifting up those in the middle who want to get on" - does he have a measure for the middle classes in mind?

1457: And there's the "free nursery places for two year olds" pledge.  One we already knew about - details here.  Still waiting for a surprise.

1458, James Forsyth: Name-checking colleagues now on the fairness agenda. Harman, Ed Miliband, John Denham and John Hutton get a pat on the back. Now, we’re all waiting to see what he says about the other Miliband in the foreign section.

1500: Audience Watch: Is it just me, or is Jack Straw looking particularly nervous?

1501: He's moved on to the NHS - "we're the party of the NHS" etc.  He returns to the story of his rugby injury and - "what I didn't tell you last year" - the story of how the NHS helped when he started losing the sight in his other eye.  Brown's delivery doesn't make these personal interludes feel natural.  They seem as what they are: forcefully wedged in by No10.

1504: Policy annoucement: From next year, people suffering from cancer will not pay for prescription charges.  Brown seems to suugest this will eventually apply to everyone suffering from a long-term illness.

1505, James Forsyth: The crowd love the tribute to the NHS. He tells the eye story again but with added extras. It’s a powerful story but its deployment is another sign of how Brown is using anything and everything to try and prop himself up.  

1508: This just in from Fraser Nelson:

"When Sarah Brown came on stage, it looked for a glorious split second that there had been some last-minute leadership coup. But no, she was just introducing old Brown, back on typical plodding form. A huge smile at the start which vanished almost as quickly as that grin he practised for American Pop Idol.  So how does he get around the expectation for a good speech? By not even trying, and seeking to make a virtue out of his lack of verve. It’s like he decided from the start: I can’t do uplifting, inspiring speeches like Blair, Obama or other people who have won elections in their own right so I won’t even try. “Now let’s come straight to the point” he starts - at least, sparing us another of his Papal Nuncio jokes.

And then we’re off. “I was brought up seeing my parents juggle with their budget like the rest of us” – code: unlike Cameron and Osborne. He has a new phrase “people on middle and modest incomes” – something he’d know about, given how his taxes turned middle incomes into modest ones. “Those who argue for the dogma of unbridled free market forces have been proved wrong,” he said – like all those idiots in the Treasury from 1997 banging on about “light touch” regulation? Oh. Anyway.

Not very many Brownies, but this one is a bit rich:-“When we talk about three million more people in work since 1997, that’s not just a number. That’s a life that’s been changed – three million times over. That’s the young woman laid off in the mid 90s who’s now built a booming business of her own.” Actually that’s a Pole working his guts out, living on baked beans and stale bread, in pretty grim conditions. As I never tire of saying, 2m of those 3m new jobs are imported: accounted for by immigration. The remaining 1m are pensioners and public sector. There are fewer British-born people working today than in 1997. “When things get tough, things get tougher. We don’t give in and we never will” – code: I don’t give in. “I want to unleash on this country a new wave of social mobility” – shame he didn’t get this brainwave in 1997.

Okay, the script has arrived. It’s twenty pages – leaden, turgid, not even anything controversial enough to Fisk. All stuff like the above. For example, when he’s started going backwards on his child poverty target, he’s compensating for it by claiming to legislate for it. As if passing a bill will make it better. I just despair. It’s typical Brown: a laundry list without a narrative, only this time at least twice as long as it should be. It reads as if about 20 people submitted paragraphs, and instead of editing them down he kept them all in. I swear I can hear the applause fading, as if even the audience have realised they are in Room 101 territory – listening to a neverending Brown speech. I suspect even Blair, watching wherever he is, would have switched off halfway through on the basis that you only live once. If this speech was genuinely make-or-break, he’d be broken. But he’d get a standing ovation if he’d read the phone book (which, at times, it sounded like he was doing). “United we fall” is the unofficial theme of this conference."

1511, James Forsyth: Brown does the tub-thumping ‘fight for’ stuff well, it’s the strongest part of the speech so far. But I think it goes over a lot better with the Labour faithful than the country at large.

1514: The first extended attack on the Tories, a (dubious) list of what the UK wouldn't have if the Tories were in power - "No investment in the NHS ... no independence of the Bank fo England ... no minimum wage." etc. etc.  Brown ends the list with: "We did fix the roof while the sun was shining".

1514, James Forsyth: A migrant charge for public services’. How is that going to work?

1515, James Forsyth: 'We did fix the roof while the sun was shining’, further evidence of just how much Osborne gets under Labour’s skin. He really is the Tory they love to hate.

1517: Here's the "same old Tories" attack proper.  Cameron's strategy is to "Change [the Tories'] appearance - to create the appearance of change".  Brown's also majoring on the "Tory spending cuts" theme - potentially boxing his own party into raised taxation or (more likely) raised borrowing, as the Exchequer's funds dry up.  Scorched earth, anyone?

1520, James Forsyth: ‘No time for a novice’, Brown says playing the experience card. He is sticking with the line that the Tories are hiding something. The Purnell ‘real thing’ approach would be more effective.

1521, James Forsyth: Brown delivers the easy hit on the Tory’s inheritance tax cut plan. Making the allowance transferable, effectively raising the threshold to £2 million is a political liability.

1524, James Forsyth: David Miliband gets the briefest of mentions and Brown makes clear that he is his boss. Considering what he said about other colleagues, this is going to be seen as a slap.

1526: "All the polls, all the headlines ... will all be worth it if I make life better for one child, one family, one community."  A line that 's just too cheesy to work.  And I suspect that not everyone in the party will be agreeing with his "it's all worth it" take on the situation...

1528, James Forsyth: He's doing the Hillary ‘this is not about me, it’s about you’ thing. She pulled it off better, though.

1528: "Together we will win for the sake of our country."  And that's it.  Brown gets a stadning ovation and what sounds like hearty applause.

Round-ups from Team Coffee House

James Forsyth: That was a lot less good than I expected. He used everything he could to try and establish an emotional contract, to borrow a Stephen Carter phrase, with voters but to my ears it fell flat. The chances of Brown being ousted by Christmas just increased signficantly.

A super-smart friend texted me half-way through to say that ‘this is the speech he should have given last year’ and I think that’s right. The public don’t want to hear about Gordon the man, they want to know what he is going to do. He also missed an opportunity to show that he is the man for this new, uncertain world. This speech compares very poorly to Blair’s post 9/11 conference speech.

Peter Hoskin:  Even this speech's very, very best parts were mediocre - and they were few and far between.  Perhaps the biggest question hovering over it is: where's the beef?  Although some of his policy announcements will be welcomed - particularly those on prescription charges - none were particularly groundbreaking, and most were either recycled or timed for the far-flung future.

There was nothing here to tell the public that Brown is really the man to lead the country through the hard times; nothing to convince them that he will make today and the day after better for them. By extension, then, there was little to convince the Labour party that Brown should lead them into tomorrow.

In the end, I suspect no-one who thought Brown should go will have been swayed.  But some who thought he should stay may well be having second thoughts.