Will the Labour poll boost stick?

richard

Dead cat bounce, I believe the term is. To describe the motion of a party in decline gaining momentary popularity and then returning to its habitual position.

David

Perhaps the most significant thing about this poll is that despite a week of wall-to-wall positive coverage of Labour, helped by their friends in the media, the Tory vote has slipped 3 points. That's within the margin of error. I agree that the Tories shouldn't be complacent in any way, and that they need to work hard at their conference in a few days time, and indeed over the next couple of years. But I think this poll is actually a bit more encouraging than some are suggesting.

David C

With regard to point 2.
As far as I know the Paulson rebuff hasn't made the BBC headlines. The state broadcaster is still squarely behind the image of 'Our Glorious (and Courageous) Leader' flying the Atlantic to dispense the benefit of his mighty intellect to the poor benighted souls wrestling with the travails of the economic crisis (woe unto them).
Just be clear:
The BBC decides what the News is; nobody else.

You'll be wanting democracy next!

TPR

Far from impressive and certain to fall as the post-conference buzz subsides and Brown finds himself beset by further problems. It will be interesting to see a YouGov poll after the coming Tory conference.

Presently the real worry has to be for the Lib Dems: post-coference and a dip in popularity. Hardly inspires confidence in Cleggy.

Michael Hargrave

Once GB starts stammering in PMQs again next month, he will be back to square one.

The Conservative Party now have a god-given opportunity, being last in the conference calender to have the last word on a path for the future and I do hope they don't fluff it. Get some good advice from the senior experienced Tory veterans and tell it like it is, but give us all the lift in spirits that we need.

Tiberius

I agree with you and James, Peter, that the time is right for the Tories to be more outspoken about all the wrongs that are going on. We have had some instances already, for example Cameron's speech in Glasgow East, and the policy on family taxation, and these have been well received.

Of course what we don't want is a repeat of Dominic Grieve or David Willetts going policy-walkabout. Such things linger in the mind, but it is about time such silliness stopped.

Mike, Brighton

Not only is the Glenrothes by-election looming.
Any idea when the met police investigation into the (alleged) proxy donations by David Abrahams to the Labour party reports to the CPS. I understood it would be "this autumn"?

Andrew Spencer

I didn't think Brown did get that great a write up in the press. The Times was fairly hostile as was the Telegraph; The Mail was as schizophrenic as usual with Dacre and Oborne counter-acting the Brown-haters; The Sun was lukewarm and the Guardian was reasonably supportive but hardly putting out the flags.

It was the broadcast media which gave it the really positive press, pumped up by lots of Labour talking heads saying how wonderful Gordon was and nary a Tory in sight to offer some balance.

Cameron and Osborne need to put some meat on the bones next week, as Fraser has been saying. Cameron does best when he's boldest. Otherwise, the media narrative will start that Brown's comeback is on.

Oh, and the Sarah effect uggh! That grown up journalists are wetting themselves over the fact that the PM's wife intorduced him (saying virtually nothing btw) is a sad indictment of the state of politics and journalism in this country.

Nicholas

As a YouGov respondent I'm deeply suspicious of their methodology and that a Sun-commissioned poll should elicit such a significant "bounce" for a doomed party. YouGov ask questions that enable them to categorise respondents politically and have admitted they use selection criteria in determining the respondents for some political polling. The wording of recent political polls were clearly 'positioned' from the Labour government perspective rather than impartial and some seem to be sounding out future national socialist policy.

Easy for them to select predominantly Labour supporting respondents to reinforce the "bounce" notion. This is after all what Brown and Labour are all about - public perception of them and spin to that end. I'm not convinced by YouGov's supposedly impartial credentials.

TPR

Ditto N's comment: I'm also on the YouGov panel, not that I was asked to participate in said survey. The reason I suspect is because I had to specify my voting history and party allegiance when I first registered with YouGov. I should have said Labour!

Karen Barclay

Andrew at 1.59pm

I so agree with your view about the 'Sarah' effect - why a few boring lines introducing her husband can be such a vote winner is astonishing.

Another thought - if Gordon is so uniquely qualified to lead us through these turbulent economic times, he can take over Alistair Darling's job and become Chancellor again, thereby leaving the top job for someone else. Why hasn't this been put to him.

Trafalgar

Nicholas, Yougov were bang on with the London mayoral and local elections and are the pollster I trust the most.
A post-convention bounce is par for the course.
As the guys at pb.com have pointed out, when Cameron has a lot of press, the Conservatives polls go up, so expect everything to be as you were this time next week.

DM

I am sure the Tories have been planning their conference meticulously. Cameron is very astute - remember last year's conference when he was under pressure about his own leadership, and he (and Osborn) turned the polls round forcing Labour on to the back foot where they have stayed.
During the Party Conference season, the host party's 'love-in' obviously gets most coverage (mainly with its own supporters being in situ and applauding madly.) The other parties hardly get a look in, and all this after the long summer recess. No wonder the Tories have slipped back.
Give them a week. Watch this space..

Bernard from Horsham

Nicholas, I think thats unfair, but on the other hand it is in the interest of pollsters to have close polls to make sure they get repeat business regularly... Its not one poll that matters, its the trend. Remember the polls after Gordon's coronation and where we are now. End Of Oct should make things a lot clearer.

Travis Bickle

I've done many surveys on YouGov and never been asked to take part in any political poll.

As I understand it we are talking about a sample of just 1500 on this poll, and Brown did (on the whole) receive a very easy ride from BBC and much of the mainstream media (don't forget George Pascoe Watson labelled it a masterful speech...)

Mark

YouGov seem to have been pretty good recently. But this is a temporary blip.
Brown had a good day in the press.
Given the large number of floating or undecided voters, it is not surprising that 3 days of fairly consistently positive coverage has an impact. But Brown was back to his usual useless self on Wednesday morning and his attempt to build on his speech by flying off to New York has failed miserably - the big story is in Washington, not Wall Street today. Brown looks or will look irrelevant/a sideshow even if the BBC fail to report the fact that Paulson didn't have time to meet him.
If - and it is an if - the Tories, and Cameron in particular, have a good conference, Labour will drop to 22%. I am assuming/hoping that their low profile over the last 2-3 weeks is beacuse they are preparing intensely for their conference.

TrevorsDen

Political betting point out that a 'quickie' (to use a term which might find its way into a haridian hareperson speech) 24 hour poll is heavily slanted to Guardian readers.

This is however factored out.

Suposedly

Oscar

I think the poll bounce is genuine but hardly earth shattering. Everything now depends on the Conservative conference which will be as pivotal as it was last year. If Cameron doesn't gain momentum this could prove a turning point for Brown. I suspect the BBC/broadcast press will do their best to marginalise it - I bet they're banking (no pun intended) on some big news from America to shunt the tories into a news backwater. Or some such. A lot of work has gone into relaunching Brown and the Brown media machine isn't about to squander all its efforts.

Man_on_Richmond_Bridge

You want a plain English explanation of what's going on financially see the link below

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/dummys-guide-to-us-banking-crisis.html

Carol-Ann

'a plain-English explanation of what's going on and of what can be done to rectify things'

I couldn't agree more with that sentence. Ironically it was George W Bush, yes Bush, who gave the best analysis of the problem in his address to the American people last night. He was clear about what has happened, what needs to be done and the consequences of not acting. He also spoke in a way everyone can understand and grasp. I know he is mocked but no other politician has been as clear as he was last night.

John Miller

Given that the Tories are the opposition, they need to, err, oppose.

Their only danger is a coup by Harman, and I can't see that happening. The Labour mob aren't like that-have I missed any female trades union leaders?

This is the time to give GB the most comprehensive grilling on all his Brownies - or lies, as everyone else here calls them.

Expose the man for what he is, a complete fraud. Do not spare the rod, as it were. Nothing will make the Labour Party depose Brown and he will not fight an election. At the last minute, he will duck out of a battle, as he has throughout his political career. He will retire for some reason, then Harman will step in (having bottled a confrontation with Brown earlier)- again with no contest.

In the last few weeks before the general election Cameron's team need to come out with a blizzard of new ideas that leave Labour reeling and it's job done.

John Miller

Oh and sorry for another comment, but someone at the Tory conference should point out that Brown is uniquely qualified as the person who led the country FROM boom to BUST, so if we want to be more bust, he's your man. Again, no matter how much the Tories rubbish Brown, it will have no effect on his position as PM, because Labour will rally around him. But the public has to view him for what he is.

John Miller

I should really get my own blog I suppose, but I bet a pound to a Gordon Brown book on courage, that we will see the most appalling, negative, nasty campaigning by Labour during and after the Tory conference - this is what Labour excel at, after all.

Cameron & Co don't need to react to this - on its own it will make Labour look bad in the eyes of the public - but they do need to focus on Brown's brownies and his general incompetence.

mitch

I think that every time gordo has a little victory someone else will resign to overshadow it this seems to be the plan no obvious stabbing just a demoralising pecking to death.This way he cant attack them without looking stupid.Ruth Kelly could have waited a week or did it before the conference but no,she rained on his parade.

TGF UKIP

Nicholas & Co, fascinating posts on YouGov particularly in view of who takes them, the D Telegraph and the S. Times. Be interesting to hear Fraser's take on their reliability.

So far as the Tories next week go, Gordon is now lying about them and distorting their views and policies so frequently that they really do have to step up and call a liar a liar. Presently they do not even appear to be a serious opposition let alone a serious alternative government.

And Tiberius, funny how we recall speeches differently. You remember the Glasgow East speech for family taxation, I remember it, as do I suspect many others, for Dave, in his best prissy, priggish Blue Labour manner, lecturing us all on eating too many chips.

Mike

just a "dead twat bounce" me thinks

Robert Wooller Bradford England

I hope Labour bounce to 50 with the Tories on 30. The last thing we need after 18 years of Tory rule is another Tory government, dragging us back to the dark ages.

chris

Yes i agree with Robert there. The tories are doing what they are best at. PR stunts. I do not trust them one bit. As the lady said in the daily mirror this week. David Cameron does'nt understand anything. He is false. Keep labour in!