Has the 'novice' line worked?

David

Wow, a ComRes poll by the BBC does Labour a favour. I'll have to have a lie down in case the shock causes me to faint.

On a more serious note - it sounds like post-conference bounce stuff to me. Expect it to turn around again after Birmingham, not that the BBC will be organising any more polls in the Tory bounce period.

Bocephus

This is an open goal. If the Tories can't pin this chaos on Brown they don't deserve to be in power. They have a week to themselves, they just have to keep hammering the point home. "Feel the publics pain" as Clinton would say.

mac

Word association.
Crick. Wark. Robinson. Naughtie. Mason. Edwards.
Objectivity. Impartiality. Credibility. BBC. Conclusion?

Nick Kaplan

The fact that Brown, who is more than partially responsible for the current crisis, can be seen as the right man to lead us through it, just goes to show how poor the Tory strategy has been in the last few weeks. Cameron’s silence on this issue has been deafening. It is little wonder that just 30% of people think he could lead us through the crisis, given he hasn’t said a word about it. The only thing that surprised me about this poll was that only 24% responded ‘Don’t Know.’ At the moment all the leading politicians seem equally inept and I would have imagined a huge amount more people would not know who could help. At conference there are a few things the Tories must do:

1)Let Brown’s role in the current crisis be known; He set up the regulatory system that has so spectacularly failed. He removed the Bank of England’s supervisory role that could have averted this crisis. He deliberately appointed people to set interest rates too low. He changed the measure of inflation to allow the continued setting of low interest rates. He created the housing price boom with cheap credit, immigration and destruction of the pension system (meaning the only way to make money for the future was to buy property) which all pushed up demand hugely.

2)Inform people of the huge debt Brown created whilst Chancellor that is going to make this crisis very hard to deal with. This should be used as a reason to cut spending upon entering office.

3)They must turn around Labour’s attack line that ‘the Tories called for greater deregulation’ by pointing out that it has become evident that the regulation we do have is ineffectual and what we need is better regulation in the form of supervision by the Bank of England, which is exactly what the party called for several years ago.

4)They must suggest ways that they would ensure this crisis would not repeat itself. For example promise to use an anti-cyclical interest rate policy i.e. as the economy grows increase interest rates and as it slows decrease them (the reverse of what Brown has done). They should ban excessive mortgages of the kind that have caused the crisis. They should give the Bank of England a greater supervisory role, and sell it using Fraser’s point on QT last night that the only people we can trust less than bankers is politicians.

If the Tories cannot make such a case they will thoroughly deserve all the criticism they get from the media and the left. The time for cheap talk is over, people have got the message that the Tories have changed and are ready to listen, now is the time to say something of value. If not a fourth Labour term could be on the cards and I could imagine no worse disaster for the UK.

John Ward

David has it right; and I was already thinking of writing something similar somewhere as soon as I read the headline elsewhere.

The timing of this poll gives the game away: it is after the "post-conference bounce" for Labour, and just before the Conservative conference even begins. The smell of that rat is overpowering.

As it happens, though, the BBC has unintentionally done the Conservatives a favour, in that they will indeed be cautious and heed David Cameron's warnings on recent days. The end result ought to be a better, more sober (in all senses!) and stronger outcome at the end of next week's event in Birmingham than might otherwise have been the case — not by a large amount, but every little helps, as they say at Tesco.

Bearing in mind the (as usual) skewed nature of last night's "Question Time", but even in Manchester it was the Speccie's own Fraser Nelson who was received most favourably, this all goes to show that the trend is continuing to head toward a Conservative vistory at the next General Election.

All that has to be done on that side is to hold their nerve, behave in such a way as to give no opening to the unscrupulous journos out there, and work hard toward that near-certainty as if it wasn't one.

As the Terminator once said (in "Judgment Day) — I would!

Alex R

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article4831474.ece

Today's developments on the high street aren't looking great. This "novice" line is going to be tested to its limits.

TrevorsDen

Mr Kaplan is missing out on the point that next week is the conservative conference and I do not expect tories to be dribbling out their views before that.

Also Cameron has at least one pre conference interview (on SKY) so why dilute his message?

Equally its the normal convention not to play politics when conferences are on.

And on top of all that the situation is quite fluid and why comment on something which may not happen.

Mr K talks about govt interest rates. Its the BoE which sets interest rates not the govt. The Govt has to set the criteria.

I think the Tories can be relied on to make the right case (I do not see anything in Mr Kaplans treatise which has not been said by Tories before) - the question is, will the lefties on the BBC and the likes of Channel 4 let them publicise it.

David

"... just goes to show how poor the Tory strategy has been in the last few weeks. Cameron’s silence on this issue has been deafening."

With respect, Nick, what comment there has been has been tidy and precise. But there's no doubt in my mind that the Conservatives didn't want to appear as bad eggs, making a fuss during the Labour conference. We saw how badly that worked for Brown last year. Wait until Birmingham starts on Sunday...

john problem

Hold on! How can Brown call them 'novices'? Miliband went to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Cameron was in PR. Terrific qualifications to run a country in an economic shambles. OK, so they're not a good as Brown who was a solicitor and has been practising to be an economist for eleven years. But this kind of cat-calling will give democracy in our treasured isle a bad name.

Mike, Brighton

You'll note that the biased-BBC majors on Labour halving the gap to the Tories in the YouGov poll and now a Comres poll.
Look back a week or so, did the biased-BBC report on the Tories at 52%? No, they buried it.
The BBC is certainly working hard for Brown

Paul B

Nick too is right, its time for DC, Osbourne and others from Tories to step up to the plate and apportion blame where it lies...firmly in Brown court.

Brown imo, has had a good couple of weeks now, his positioning of "its everyone else's fault bar mine guvnor, I'm as pure as the day is long" , is gradually taking root with the British public.Watch him claim some credit for the Paulson rescue plan should it ever see the light of day. If Brown is anything, hes a sly crafty so and so, who craves power like a junkie craves his next fix.

Fraser produced a brilliant essay in last weeks magazine outlining just how deeply this country is in debt. Others on this blog have further pointed out, how the credit splurge has benefited Brown via Vat returns , stamp duty etc.

Brown is succeeding in his efforts to pin the blame on immoral banker, all cities faults, spivs etc. Whereas the only immoral banker is him and his quite obscene and morally reprehensible tax and spend spend spend policies.

Nick Kaplan

TrevorsDen; I have on this blog been a supporter of Cameron and the strategy he has followed, so I was not making a bias attack. However I do think that given the potential severity of this crisis a party which seeks to govern should really have a clear analysis of what has gone wrong and what can/ should be done. The real worry that I have is that if our only right wing party is silent on this issue for too long than it is the left that will fill the void and that is not something we want. It should also be a perfect opportunity for an aspiring leader to demonstrate his fitness for office by responding authoritatively to a crisis (as McCain has done in the US). Cameron’s inaction means that Labour charges of inexperience could start to stick and this is not something I want to see.

As to your point about the Bank of England setting interest rates, this is of course true, but you are forgetting that it is Brown who appointed all these people and did so because he was aware of their desire to keep interest rates so low. Brown has followed, almost exactly, the model of Greenspan in the US and it has resulted in disaster.

I really hope that you are correct and the Tories silence has been out of respect for tradition rather than lack of something to say, however I think you may be being slightly optimistic (although I accept my claim about a potential Labour 4th term is wildly pessimistic). If the Tories can pitch the right message at conference they should be able to make political capital out of the current difficulties. However if they continue to be silent then they will have handed the left a big opportunity. I am confident that Cameron will do the right thing, he cannot afford not to.

emil

Did Brown really fly out to New York to pronounce that global problems need global solutions?

wow, what a visionary the man is.

John Miller

This novice line really blows my mind. I obviously haven't got the common touch, cos it totally beats me.

So the plumber who buggers up your central heating is the man to put it right?

I'll have to work on this interesting concept and let you know...

Richard Holloway

Just read Nick Robinson's latest blog post. All he seems to be doing now is acting as a PR machine for Jonah Brown...

David Belchamber

Nick Kaplan at 2.55 makes excellent points. All we want now is some tory MPs to keep on making them loudly, so the electorate hears.

Oscar

The bias of the BBC is overwhelming. They have been working very very hard to turn things around for Brown along with his entourage of media backers and spin doctors. But this does not mean that it isn't working. I'm afraid to say I think it is working. They've seized on a simple narrative (albeit an entirely fabricated, false one). Brown is a giant, experienced in steering the economy and we need him to sort out the mess. Cometh the hour - cometh the man stuff. I'm afraid the electorate are being forcefed the message and there are signs they are buying it. I also sense the media are going to do everything they can to marginalise the Tory conference. Global events might well assist them. If there is no Conservative bounce after the conference - then this indeed could be the moment the polls turned. Also the image of Brown seeing off Miliband (another careful construction) has made him look strong. Sorry to be such a pessimist, but this is what I'm picking up.

Carol

I would like Ken Clarke to be shadow chancellor and Osborne moved to another brief. The fact is Osborne is too young and has never had a proper job in his life. He is just not someone you would put in charge of the economy.

TGF UKIP

Sorry, folks, but Nick Kaplan's diagnosis is largely right and there is a great deal of wishful thinking in many of these posts.

Once you look in detail at the results of this poll and other recent polls it becomes apparent just how shallow and patchy the Tory headline poll lead really is.

It's easy to decry the messenger but what is in this Com Res poll for the hated BBC does no more than bear out what has been evident for some time in YouGov polls for the Telegrah and the S. Times and I do commend all Coffee Housers to avail themselves of the links to virtually all polls and look at the results in detail.

As usual, quite shockingly in current circumstances, the recent polls show that most voters consider themselves to be instinctively Labour rather than Tory and most AB voters and most voters in the vital 35-64 age group back Brown and Darling against Cameron and Osborne in the economic stakes.

These are truly appalling results results for the Tories and no doubt Pete can tell us us if they exist and, if they do, and give us parallel figures for the Labour position pre 97.

The Tories have been hugely unconvincing on the economic front ever since Dave took over. Partly this is a result of Dave's own image and performance as a flim flam man but largely because of the presence of his best mate Osborne as Shadow Chancellor. Has there ever been a less convincing figure in so important a position?

Dave won't do it, I'm sure(which confirms again my view of Dave) but the Tories desperately need to replace Osborne to gain any traction on financial and economic affairs.

emil

The great British public don't give a toss about any of this, what will matter is whether they feel good about their own personal economy in 18 months time. Since Brown continues to spend money like water on completely uneccessary things like ID cards, and will continue to tax us to the hilt, it doesn't matter what the MSM say - he's (rightfully) toast.

Whether the next lot are any better is another question, and they don't need to say anything at all at this stage.

molesworth 1

If Cameron & Osborne can't pin the 'novice' label on Brown's 'irresponsible' chancellorsip, they are not really trying; as Ben Brogan reports, George Osbourne reckons Brown's ".. writing my speech for me!"
The idea of Ken Clarke as Shadow Chancellor has an appeal that may not register within the Conservative party as effectively as it might among the wider electorate...