Osborne's Quango could be used to counter the tax-cutters
Fraser Nelson 12:43amNaively, I missed a sixth potential function of Osborne’s new Office for Budget Regulation – to protect David Cameron against Tories who want tax cuts. Here’s the theory, which I heard last night from more than a few people. The OBR is programmed with a static rather than dynamic model of tax collection – ie, it judges a reduction in a marginal tax rate as a net loss to the Exchequer, ignoring the extra industry it would unleash. So it says “no tax cuts, we must pay off debt” and strengthens Cameron’s hand against his own party.
If this sounds daft, remember that the Tory party is still in therapy over the issue of tax cuts. I don’t include Osborne in this, but there still plenty of artists formerly known as Portillistas who are still unable to debate the issue logically. They regard all low-tax Tories as the Mad Ones - a cave-dwelling cult led by Redwood and Tebbit, who think tax cuts are a golden bullet and must be destroyed if the Tory party is to prosper. So they start to hyperventilate when hearing the word “Laffer” or “spending cuts”.
For what it’s worth, I believe Osborne sees the OBR as a political tool to amplify his core message - that Brown is a profligate bounder. While this OBR has the potential to act as a bulwark against the tax cuts, I don’t think Osborne would be so cowardly as to create a Quango just so he can hide behind it once in government. It’s not his style.
I’m chairing a Taxpayers' Alliance debate on Tuesday evening about what a Tory Treasury could look like, and one absolute priority I see is to return to dynamic tax modelling, so HM Treasury factors in non-compliance and entrepreneurial stifling when it considers money to be “raised” by higher marginal rates. Only then do you get a realistic assessment of the harm high taxes do, and the potential of actually confiscating less of people’s money.
Judging my the response to my last blog on dynamic tax modelling, this is an issue which even splits CoffeeHousers. I am firmly amongst those who believe we’re on the wrong side of the Laffer curve and that if Cameron wants to repay this debt quickly he can both lower tax rates and increase revenue.



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Paul B
September 29th, 2008 1:22am Report this commentIm with you Fraser- the less you tax (directly via income tax) the harder they work,and the less inclined they are to look for every scheme to avod paying taxes, its basic human nature. The governenment eventually get the money via increased spending by the individual-the important point to note being that the individual decides on what he/she spends his/her money on- not the state.
Frank P
September 29th, 2008 3:23am Report this commentGet off to bed Fraser, there will be no Peroni left for tomorrow.
jr
September 29th, 2008 7:11am Report this commentDon't be fooled by Osborne. He is a complete opportunist. All he is interested in is power, as is Cameron. He's spinning you about himself. He's supported much worse than this. You just had to be there when he said it.
David
September 29th, 2008 7:12am Report this commentThe problem is, Fraser, is that when the economy was doing well you demanded tax cuts, and now the economy is doing badly you demand tax cuts. This lack of any nuanced position makes it hard to take your views seriously.
GS London
September 29th, 2008 9:05am Report this commentIf I were to take your money away from you, then give it to someone else (who you didn't know), and he/she gave a bit of it back to you, you'd forget being defrauded of your cash in the first place and be overwhelmingly pleased that someone somewhere is handing out free cash. This is the myth of Tax credits, and one which has been successfully exploited by Labour.
It's a psychological thing, and takes a form of devious engineering to perfect. This is what the tories are dealing with: redefining the psychology of money.
RobertD
September 29th, 2008 9:14am Report this commentThe real issues are which kind of tax cuts act best to stimulate the economy and generate investment and growth and are the cuts made when people can respond by increasing their economic activity.
Top of the list for me would be Corporation tax to attract new companies into the UK; Employers NI to encourage extra employment; and capital gains tax on active investments (offset if necessary by restoring the higher rates on passive investments like second homes.)
If there is more money in the kitty a cut in VAT reduce some of the pressure on consumers and help limit the number of retailers going out of business.
These need to be done now not in 2 years time when the economy is trashed beyond recovery, with major corporations gone offshore and entrepreneurs demoralised and bankrupt.
David Bouvier
September 29th, 2008 9:21am Report this commentDavid - if the economy is over-taxed perhaps tax cuts are a good idea.
I doubt Fraser was asking for tax cuts to moderate the Brown bubble.
Forlornehope
September 29th, 2008 9:23am Report this commentWhat is needed is a comprehensive overhaul taking in both personal and corporate taxation. This has to address the fiction of National Insurance, which is both additional income tax and a tax on employment, pensions both public and private, benefits, which effectively create a ridiculous marginal rate, and, of course, corporation tax (this is of course linked to employers' NI payments). Out of this could, and should, come a dramatically simplified system that encourages hard work, saving and enterprise, protects the genuinely unfortunate and costs a great deal less to administer.
The problem is that this could not possibly be done with a "no losers" requirement. So, "if it were done when ‘tis done, then ‘twere well it were done quickly". We can only hope that the Tories have done the necessary staff work, because if they haven't they won't have time to do it in office.
Beside this challenge, the exact rates come into the category of fine tuning. One area where everyone seems to agree that we are badly behind the Laffer curve is at the lower end of the earnings scale. It could be argued that this is a far more urgent, and possibly more important issue than at the top.
Bob Tizer
September 29th, 2008 10:40am Report this commentFor heavens sake, all you lovers of taxing the people of this country to death - WE'VE HAD ENOUGH - ENOUGH - JUST CUT OUR BLOODY TAXES
Ian C
September 29th, 2008 10:59am Report this commentTax cuts are best used where they are needed to reduce/remove obvious disincentives. It is noteworthy that the worst disincentives, towards the end of Labour period in government, that the worst disincentives exist at the bottom end of the income scale.
Not only is it noteworthy, it is scandalous. And shown themselves up to be the most mendacious, cynical bunch of self-serving champagne socialists of a sort you would not have thought could possibly exist.
Nicholas
September 29th, 2008 1:23pm Report this commentjr: "Don't be fooled by Osborne. He is a complete opportunist. All he is interested in is power, as is Cameron. He's spinning you about himself."
I see that with the Tory conference in full swing the New Labour blog monitoring unit (paid for by my taxes no doubt) is also in full swing. Out and about undermining DC and leaving as many Tory-damaging wordbites on as many blogs as they can.
So, jr, my little socialist troll, Gordon Brown and his gang of useless incompetents are not opportunists in it for power and spinning like there was no tomorrow (which there isn't for them)?
Damon
September 29th, 2008 1:43pm Report this commentDavid,
When the economy was growing I wanted to keep more of my own money, now the economy is shrinking I still want to be able to keep more of my own money. Supporting tax cuts in both scenarios is a perfectly rational position to take
Frank Pulley
September 29th, 2008 5:57pm Report this commentFraser
Who truncated my post at 3.23am?
When I posted it, it read, "Get off to bed Fraser, there will be no Peroni left for tomorrow.
But I suppose you could always share Andrew's Blue Nun but don't get into the habit."
It wasn't that excruciating was it? And if he uses it on Thursday evening, I'll claim a copyright fee.
TGF UKIP
September 29th, 2008 10:33pm Report this commentFrank Pulley, any mention of Andrew Neil in any even slightly derogatory or piss-taking way is verboten. As for the Barclays, don't even think about it, Matthew will simply re-write it.
TGF UKIP
September 29th, 2008 11:03pm Report this commentFraser, we're seriously in danger of agreeing here. It's not just no tax cuts full stop, that get's me so pissed off with Dave and his gang, it is their unwillingness to make the basic conservative case for tax cuts.
Too often in recent times when Tories (and many Coffee Housers) do talk about tax it is always on a social justice basis, particularly advancing the notion that the lowest earners should be taken out of taxation altogether - something with which I cannot altogether agree on a taxation/representation basis.
From a promotion of growth and enterprise viewpoint, cutting the taxes of a business owner earning £150k pa is far more likely to be beneficial than cutting the taxes of his employee earning £15k pa.
Taxes should be cut for all on the basis of returning citizens' own money to them but proper conservatives should not shirk from making the supply side arguments.
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