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Tuesday, 30th September 2008

Which party's share price will plummet?

Peter Hoskin 8:59am

Questions abound after the financial panic yesterday, which saw the Dow Jones index experience its biggest-ever one-day fall and which has triggered similar drops in markets across the world.  Will a(nother) bailout package be agreed upon in the US?  How long might that take?  Will more banks collapse?  Have we seen worst of it?  Only the last of these can be answered with anything like certainty, and the most persuasive answer to it is: No.

Less significant, but floating around nonetheless, are the political questions.  Who will benefit, and how?  Another poll this morning suggests that Labour might be capitalising from the turmoil - not only does it record a reduced gap between Labour and the Tories of 7 percent, but 43 percent of respondents think that Gordon Brown is "best in a crisis", compared to only 33 percent for David Cameron.  The question of which of the two men can be more trusted with the economy produces exactly the same result.

Sure, it's a ComRes poll - they produced another "Brown more trusted on the economy" poll for the BBC a few days ago - so some might feel we need more data from other polling companies before we can see the wider picture.  And, sure, there are still convincing reasons to think that this Labour poll boost is only temporary.  But there'll still be a twofold worry among the Tories: that Brown's "experienced man for these troubled times" message is actually connecting with voters, and that their own message - "the Gordon Brown experience" - is getting submerged under the news emerging from Wall St.  As with so many political narratives, only time will tell.

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Luke

September 30th, 2008 9:15am Report this comment

I think we have to accept that Brown is more experienced, looks more reassuring and will get a sustained bump in the polls through the crises.

Personally I think we need to stop trying to say its all his fault (does anyone actually believe that?) and recognise is global. Its like trying to pin a terrorist atrocity on the govt - mad politics.

However, if we buckle down now, are seen to support the govt, i dont think brown can sustain the recovery into the post crisis period - and I think we will be well back in front come the election

TomTom

September 30th, 2008 9:19am Report this comment

David Davis would be much more credible now...that is the problem with windmills and chocolate oranges - it all pre-supposed credit cycles would not turn.

We have a panicky government nationalising rather than recapitalising. Once Lloyds shareholders see the mortal risk to a Good Bank by merging with a Bad Bank - and resisting management hubris such as with Scottish Widows - then HBOS too will be a candidate for nationalisation which is ridiculous.

These banks could be re-capitalised and reverse-auction bad debt to a Treasury Bad Bank

C

September 30th, 2008 9:38am Report this comment

I have to disagree with Luke! GB was dreadful at 9pm last night making his statement. He repeated himself time and time again (same old mantra) and when asked if he had spoken to the President he seemed uncertain and shifty as if trying to figure out the right answer. I have never had time for him but it occurred to me last night for the first time that he really isn't in control and doesn't know what to do. Alistair Darling on the other hand seems to be showing a much defter touch. I have this feeling that GB is going to make a serious mistake in the next few weeks. Just a hunch - don't know why!

TrevorsDen

September 30th, 2008 9:50am Report this comment

Of course its all his faut. The credit crunch began in America (where selling of duff mortgages to bad risks began with Clinton) but British banks badly regulated by the very system that Brown himself created have taken out more than their fair share of toxic loans.

B&B demutualised under labour.

The whole mess we are in has been stoked up by Brown. Just who else do you blame for the fact that Britain is the most indebted nation in the industrial world. Who else do you blame for our growing public deficit which puts us in a very weak position.

And who will savers blame do you think when our interest rates tumble to say zero. And who will people expecting a decent pension blame when it turns out they get far less than they expected?

Tiberius

September 30th, 2008 10:12am Report this comment

There is only one response to anyone who thinks Brown is capable of handling money, even when kept in the tea caddy.

It's not offensive, but is too patronizing to print.

Mike Smithson

September 30th, 2008 10:17am Report this comment

Rubbish analysis if I may say. You are making the fundamental mistake of comparing with a old ComRes poll. The previous survey, ten days ago, from the pollster had a 12% Tory lead - the same as we have this morning.

That survey

Paul B

September 30th, 2008 2:10pm Report this comment

I agree with C above- Brown was truly awful,sounded like a parrot on Prozac-" we will do anything, anything do we, we anything do"- ad nauseum. Truly appalling and he looked it- grey unshaven palour glistening with a cold sweat, putrid.

No way the Tories should play along with Brown lumpen assertions that its a global fault and thats its everyone lies fault by mine- because that aint true. It is his fault and his quite horrendous Nicholsonesque spending that have largely contributed to the dire state we find ourselves in today. We do not let this grotesque man off the hook now.

Paul B

September 30th, 2008 2:16pm Report this comment

As an afterthough, I do feel it would be aid DC if he could persuade Ken Clarke to speak more- he could tear Brown up for the proverbial and importantly, people like & trust the man. He is a heavyweight, as described in Rod Liddle article in last weeks Speccie.

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