This financial Waterloo
Matthew d'Ancona 10:34am
'It's like the battle of Waterloo,' one leading Cameroon said to me at the Spectator's party last night. He meant that nobody knew what the morning would bring, and that once the battle had been joined - in this case a global financial battle between impersonal forces of unimaginable scale - nothing would be the same again.
He was right. One has the sense here at the Tory Party conference in Birmingham of being in an ant colony whose residents have just realised how tiny they really are. This is not a reflection upon the Conservatives, who had a good day yesterday and are running a show as smooth as an Innocent smoothie here. No: the problem is that it is hard to compel media and public interest in the prospective policies of an incoming Tory Government when the Dow is in freefall and the very future of the British banking system is in doubt.
The Cameroons are not unduly concerned by this, irritating as it is to have the carefully planned choreography of many months driven to the margins by a financial hurricane. They know that there are severe limits to what any Opposition can do in a crisis - and that it has more scope for embarrassments and unforced errors than for triumphs. So: expect even sterner faces on the conference platform and sobriety all round, almost to the point of parody. There will, of course, continue to be a sharp critique of Brown's custody of the economy but also a post 9/11 style promise of bipartisanship. The Tories point to Bush's talks with senior Democrats and ask why Gordon can't do the same. Of course, the Tories don't control the legislature, as the Democrats do in Washington, so the comparison is scarcely exact. But the real reason, as Cameron well knows, is that Brown would rather have his toenails torn out than hold a Labour-Tory summit with the people he calls the 'public school bullies'.
The next 36 hours are an obstacle course for the Tories, who will lead the news only if they stumble. Welcome to Waterloo.
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Comments
Seasurfer1
September 30th, 2008 10:56amThe problem the Conservatives have is that the electorates mind is for once without frivolity, focused soley at the safety of their bank accounts. Brown could come out of this crisis, smelling of roses, with solid poll leads.
Seasurfer1
September 30th, 2008 11:01amThere could be a run on the banks before the week is out. Customers are more spooked than ever, and it will only take a yet undefined small trigger.
Astro inflation is the only way out, caused by interest rates dropping to 2% and wholesale printing of money to create liquidty.
It looks like the tory conference is off the air today and has only breached page 8 in my newspaper.
mac
September 30th, 2008 11:21amMore like Gallipoli than Waterloo. At Waterloo we had a courageous, proven leader - Wellington - who eschewed bullshitting. In contrast, Gallipoli was a showcase of inept generalship. Gordon and his acolytes would have fitted in well with the Dardanelles disaster.
TrevorsDen
September 30th, 2008 12:07pmDunkirk comes to mind.
Does Brown really think of the Tories as 'public school bullies'?
It shows the depth of his prejudice and the bigotry which has driven his policies - his flawed policies of 'equality'.
Its worth pointing out Michael Foot went to public school as did Darling and Browns other current bete noir James Purnell.
Ruairidh
September 30th, 2008 12:09pmYour missing the point there mac. The events at Gallipoli did not reshape the world order, a different outcome would have kicked Turkey from the war and hastened it's end but the ultimate outcome would have been the same. The Battle of Waterloo was a genuine turning point of history. Success for Napaleon would have had massive long term impact on European history.
Rex Burr
September 30th, 2008 12:23pmMight I suggest that some of those in power in America knew that rejection of the package would create a buying opportunity on the markets followed by a selling opportunity when they let the package pass.
It's the market, what fun.
Austin Barry
September 30th, 2008 12:36pmSeasurfer, if you're that concerned with a run transfer all your assets to an Irish bank. The Irish Government this morning guaranteed all, yes all, deposits, bonds and debt of the six principal Irish banks. Then treat yourself to a Guinness for an astute move.
mac
September 30th, 2008 1:17pm@Ruairidh: Napoleon - and revolutionary France - had "a massive long term impact on European history" irrespective of Waterloo's outcome. My point was about generalship.
Herbert Thornton
September 30th, 2008 5:48pmSeasurfer1 speculates on there being a run on the banks, but my impression is that most of the population have very little deposited in the banks, and that it is the banks who are, on the whole, the creditors.
As for those who are thrifty & do have substantial deposits of money in the banks, the choice seems to be to either withdraw it & spend it on durable goods, or leave it where it is where it is and wait for it to lose value when the government, despite "guaranteeing" the deposits, accelerates the rate at which it prints it.
It seems to me that if the only choice is between Brown and Cameron, the country might just as well invite Robert Mugabe to take charge - and not just of Britain's financial affairs, but of the interests of the indigenous white population.
Russell
October 1st, 2008 8:34amIt doesn't matter what happens in the financial market,Brown cannot come up smelling of anything but brown stuff. He is finished and it is just a matter of when.