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Wednesday, 1st October 2008

The fundamentals still favour Cameron

James Forsyth 8:09pm

The financial crisis might be giving Gordon Brown a temporary boost but when you consider the issues the next election is likely to be fought on you see that Cameron has quite a distinct advantage. By the time of the next election, the economy will be—or will have been—in recession, shining a light on Brown’s actual economic record and making it harder for him to claim that all the trouble has come from America. Huge amounts will still have been spent on public services without the desired results and the problems of a broken society will, sadly, still be with us.

This is not where the Tory advantage ends. As Cameron’s speech today reminded us, the Tories are led by an able performer while I don’t think even Brown’s own supporters would claim that he is a natural in this respect. It seems reasonable to expect that Cameron will benefit from the increased media exposure during a general election campaign while Brown won’t.

This is all worth bearing in mind as I’d wager that if the polls don’t show the Tories getting a decent conference bounce a lot of commentators will be keen to declare that Brown in back in the game; as Jonathan Freedland noted the other day in The Guardian, the media are keen for a new narrative. The absence of a bounce will not, though, be proof of the political plates shifting. It will more likely be a consequence of the Tories not getting much coverage during their conference because of the financial crisis and a short term boost for Brown from it. 

Brown’s most potent attack on Cameron was his ‘this is no time for a novice’ line. Cameron went a long way to rebutting that today with the Obama inspired line that the “risk is sticking with what you’ve got and expecting a different result.” I suspect that asking people in 2010 if they want another three years like the last three they have had under Brown will produce the answer no.

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mitch

October 1st, 2008 8:38pm Report this comment

Goodbye Mr Brown go dither with someone elses money.Meet the new boss looks a lot better than the old boss.

Austin Barry

October 1st, 2008 9:52pm Report this comment

Brown has been left flat-footed by the Irish Government's astute move to guarantee, without limit, deposits with Irish banks. What will he do?The next 48-hours will be interesting and instructive.

geoffP

October 1st, 2008 9:58pm Report this comment

The recession is cause by the global factors though - and i think the events of the last few weeks are going to mean people do realise that

We have to adjust from the simple blame gordon message that has worked so well over the last year

tessa

October 1st, 2008 9:59pm Report this comment

But the truth is the narrative has shifted. Brown is not though incompetent in the way that he was and we have to change to respond to that

Bernard from Horsham

October 1st, 2008 10:23pm Report this comment

The BBC coverage has been abysmal.It made me very angry that they could behave in such a way.

Chris Heathcote

October 1st, 2008 11:34pm Report this comment

the Obama inspired line that the “risk is sticking with what you’ve got and expecting a different result.” - I think that was in fact originally a Bill Clinton in '92 line that Obama usefully appropriated against Hilary.

Keith

October 2nd, 2008 7:10am Report this comment

Brown must be so upset with the Irish. I'll bet he's throwing his phones about and biting the carpet.
Well done the Irish say I.

Nicholas

October 2nd, 2008 7:41am Report this comment

geoffp - the recession may be caused by global factors but not Britain's debt which is worse than most other countries. That one is down to Brown and the Tory message which the BBC are so busy ignoring/suppressing is that Britain has entered a recession with a staggering amount of debt and no reserve having enjoyed 11 years of economic growth. Hardly the legacy of a "prudent" chancellor or a fiscally responsible government.

The biggest task facing the Tories is still how to communicate effectively when they are up against hostile and partisan BBC and Channel 4 news channels.

strapworld

October 2nd, 2008 8:56am Report this comment

Actually Mr Heathcote - it is a line from an Enid Blyton book. Noddy goes to Westminster!

GS London

October 2nd, 2008 9:01am Report this comment

If the tories have any sense, they can advertise a £125pa saving for every taxpayer, and get rid of a nasty media headache at the same time... Of course, they shouldn't be foolish enough to campaign on that though - it'd best be forced through parliament after a victory.

richard

October 2nd, 2008 9:07am Report this comment

Funny joke spotted on Guido:

Q. Why is Gordon Brown?

A. Because he's toast.

David C

October 2nd, 2008 9:41am Report this comment

The 'expecting a different result' line was actually inspired by a much more pointed remark attributed to Einstein.

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result"

But it had to be rephrased because a politician could never say that.

The narrative has not really changed because Brown has not changed. Day by day, he still fights to maintain his grip on power.
Another factor has merely been added. To weigh along with Brown's decade long scheming, deceit and backstabbing is the sight of him using the mess caused by his own fiscal mismanagement as the excuse to cling to the premiership.
There are already hints in the Press that Brown is exulting as the future prospects of our children disappear into the Black Hole of crippling debt. It fits in with what is known about his personality.
And it will not wear well as the electorate realise what he has done.

Hook Norton Man

October 2nd, 2008 10:42am Report this comment

I agree with both Nicholas and Bernard -- communication will be a major problem for the Tories and the Lib Dems at the next election given the now shameless bias by the BBC.

Any previous attempts by BBC News to temper its bias with some degree of subtlety appear to have been abandoned entirely by its editors. Out-and-out propaganda in support of Labour now seems to be the order of the day -- just look at the website coverage of the conferences.

Sadly, Channel 4 news is also heading the same way: I was appalled by Snow's recent weak questioning of Brown in comparison to Guru-Murthy's badgering of Cameron.

It's fair to expect that the independent media in print, TV and radio will have its leanings; that's fine -- 'you pays your money and you takes your pick'. But given that we are all expected to pay the License Fee under pain of death, I believe we should be able to expect a far greater degree of political neutrality from the BBC.

Unfortunately, despite persistent claims by the BBC to the contrary, we're not getting that neutrality, and so the License Fee must be reviewed. The current situation is entirely unacceptable in a major, progressive European state.

I am particularly concerned that fewer and fewer 'big name' presenters are dominating more and more airtime on both TV and radio -- this can only serve to narrow the institutional political position further.

It's all rather depressing to those of us who value high quality journalism and its role in a balanced, parliamentary democracy.

Ian C

October 2nd, 2008 11:18am Report this comment

You who sweat about the broadcasters need not. Hardly anyone watches The News (Magazine quality, telly on while doing something else) Newsnight (for the few who follow politics) C4 News watched by very few but discerning watchers.

The bounce will come from the paper reporting. There are more and more people with time to read more than one paper as the economy hits a cliff this autumn (mortgages down 90%; M&S sales down 6%! both unheard of without deep recession). The whinge we can righfully have is having to pay for the Beeb.

There was much that was impressive about the speech. In particular his analysis of how the credit crunch has happened, was spot on. And he did not blame the Gov't for it all, which would have been overkill in this troubled week. He simply let it be known that they were not going to get off the hook however well they do in crisis mode.

By the correct analysis he let it be known that when the time is right he will be saying the right things to hurt Labour's record and planning the right strategy for the future. That was very encouraging and gives him the credibility he needs without pressing the case for Brown's removal now, which would have caused unnecessary self-inflcted damage.

He did well.

Barnaby Trubble

October 2nd, 2008 1:50pm Report this comment

BBC bias? Record it, measure it, blog it and put it on the cover of the damn magazine. Challenge the Beeb with its biased coverage. Go after their licence money. If you don't like the way they play take them out of the game.

David

October 2nd, 2008 2:02pm Report this comment

I fully agree with Barnaby. The problem with individuals or small groups going after the BBC is that it's very easy for the BBC to ignore them/paint them as loons. And, unfortunately, there are some loons who are very vocal against the BBC. But once the proper media start noticing they should have to answer some more serious questions.

David C

October 2nd, 2008 4:06pm Report this comment

Biased BBC (surely it deserves an appearance on the Blogroll) has been commenting on the BBC for years. The outcome is desultory appearances on Biased BBC by BBC apparatchiks with a bit of time on their hands, proferring choice slices of condescension, explaining how it is all a figment in the imaginations of the commenters, how everything evens out in the long run, how the seeming pro-labour bias is balanced by articles putting the opposing view (even if they are broadcast at 3.45 am on BBC4 or squirreled away under some obscure heading in the nether reaches of the BBC website).
The BBC is a monolithic institution, impervious to criticism, invulnerable to legal sanction by virtue of its resources and position, that can afford to ignore, obfuscate or mislead the victims it laughingly refers to as its audience.
It is simply beyond control.

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