Obama will determine the potency of the novice line
James Forsyth 4:18pm
‘This is no time for a novice’ was undoubtedly the line of the conference season. It is the one that people will remember six months from now. But the effectiveness of it will to a significant extent depend on events outside of Brown or Cameron’s control.
It looks as if the US presidential race is breaking decisively in Barack Obama’s favour. Obama’s lead in the polling averages is now the largest it has been since June and his numbers are trending upwards. Obama and Cameron’s levels of experience are roughly comparable and so his election will become a test of whether novices can lead in these troubled times.
If by the time of the next general election, which will probably be about 16 months into an Obama presidency, Obama is seen as a success, the line will lose most of its force. It will be a stretch to argue that while America is doing just fine with a novice president, the situation is too serious for Britain to have one. A successful Obama presidency could also set off a yearning for a generataional turning of the page which sees the Browns, Mandelsons and Campbells of this world consigned to history.
However, if in 2010 a president Obama were to look out of his depth in responding to the worsening financial crisis or a deteriorating global geo-political situation, the line would be even more powerful than it is now. Brown’s point would appear to have been vindicated.
Tellingly, Cameron’s retort to the novice line—“The risk is not in making a change. The risk is sticking with what you’ve got and expecting a different result”—was borrowed from Obama. Team Cameron will be hoping that if elected, Obama provides them with the most effective rebuttal to Brown’s jibe possible.
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Frank P
October 5th, 2008 4:42pm Report this commentIt really is just this simple:
http://americandigest.org/mt-archives/5minute_arguments/it_really_is_ju.php
thaggie
October 5th, 2008 5:29pm Report this commenthmm. i don't like the idea that us tories' hopes rest with what Obama does.
Dirty Euro
October 5th, 2008 8:33pm Report this commentI dissagree Mccain and Obama are novices in running government departments. While Obama has a team of old Clintonites and even Carterites, and former governors etc:. The cameron team has ony two people with government experience. Hague and Maude. He needs to add some more experience to his team. I would say Rifkind, Trimble, Ancram and Clarke should be added.
Wilfred
October 5th, 2008 8:34pm Report this commentThis is surely an inane line of argument from James Forsyth - and wishful thinking. He may as well argue that Obama is discredited because Palin is also a novice. The point is that Obama's words carry the authority of well articulated policies and good previous judgments. Whereas Cameron is perceived as lightweight in terms of policies, and dubious in terms of judgment (just one example being his disastrous statements on Northern Rock). And of course Palin is discredited not because of her lack of experience but because (in Rod Liddle's memorable phrase) she has the intellect of a whelk.
Dirty Euro
October 5th, 2008 8:37pm Report this commentPlus this is most inexperienced tory front bench versus the most experienced labour front bench.
David
October 5th, 2008 11:01pm Report this comment"Whereas Cameron is perceived as lightweight in terms of policies, and dubious in terms of judgment."
Perceived by you, and Labour supporters. This 'no policy' nonsense really has got to stop. The Conservatives have plenty of policies, but I really don't see why they should be forced to introduce a manifesto in the middle of a Parliament. They have a clear direction, with some policies included. That should suffice for now. And his political judgment seems okay to me as well; he certainly isn't making his core supporters poorer by playing politics with their tax rates, for example.
Frank Pulley
October 6th, 2008 12:58am Report this commentJames you have become Obamarized and I hope to God that the unholy alliance to which he belongs does not spread its influence into the Cameroon camp. Conservatism is almost defunct here, I discerned a vestige of it in DC's conference speech. If you as an 'insider' are intimating that Cameron has been gulled by the Chicago con man, then I despair.
And Wilfred if you value Rod Liddle's opinions on the subject of women, I should have a quick word with his ex-wife. She seems to think he has the intellect of an alley tomcat the manners of a pig and the morals of a whore, according to her little essay in a daily newspaper last week.
luke
October 6th, 2008 9:37am Report this commentI hear Obama thought Cameron was light weight
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