Coffee House exclusive: What the Russians want in return for bailing out Iceland
Andrew Neil 1:52pm
Near-bankrupt Iceland's €4bn ($5.43bn) loan from Russia is still not a done deal. Iceland's central bank Governor David Oddsson says that talks are still "ongoing" but that any aid from Russia would be "very much welcomed."
You can understand why Iceland is desperate for a massive euro-injection in the current bank crisis: the Sedlabanki, the central bank in Reykjavik, urgently needs euros because it has only €4.5bn in its current reserves and the country’s banking system needs to refinance about €10bn before year end -- not easy when the Icelandic krona has fallen 40 per cent against the Euro currency so far this year.
But what price will the Russians demand for their bailout? A highly-placed source in Reykjavik tells Coffee House that Iceland might look kindly on requests from Russia's military to use America's former military base in Iceland. America closed its Naval Air Station at Keflavik Airport two years ago, handing back the Nato facility to the Icelandic government.
Now the word in Reykjavik is that the Russians could have use of it in return for the loan. Not that Keflavik would become a Russian air base -- Iceland is a member of Nato, so that is out of the question -- but it would suit the Kremlin to be able to use it for, say, refuelling and maintenance. Having use of such a facility only a few hours flying time from North America would be a major Russian propaganda coup and cause consternation in Washington.
Iceland is in two minds. It wants to remain a loyal Nato member. But it is also in financially desperate straits and there is some resentment about the abrupt manner in which the Americans left, leaving the massive facility to deteriorate. So Iceland might look more kindly on any Russian request than the rest of Nato thinks.
UPDATE: Sources in Reykjavik, who've now read our story, tell Coffee House that Iceland turned to Russia for a loan after the EU, the Scandinavian countries and the US Federal Reserve turned it down.



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kinglear
October 7th, 2008 2:07pm Report this commentAh so not only financial Armageddon, but WW 3 as well. Nice.
TrevorsDen
October 7th, 2008 2:09pm Report this commentWant?
a pound of flesh - what else?
TrevorsDen
October 7th, 2008 2:12pm Report this commentAnd a PS ...
A dumb blond SKY News reporter has just pointed out that Mandy is still in Downing St talking with Brown and is no boubt giving him the benefit of his "economic expertise".
I kid you not - you could not credit it could you?
Clement
October 7th, 2008 2:41pm Report this commentHardly an exclusive! And you may have missed the real motivation. The Icelanders might not be as stupid as we think:
http://www.thebloggersguide.com/reykjavik/russia-bales-out-iceland-what-cost
C Powell
October 7th, 2008 2:43pm Report this commentWell, if no-one else is prepared to bail Iceland out, why wouldn't Iceland agree to Russia's request? What about the IMF? What about the suggestions that the Scandinavian countries would bail Iceland out? And why only 4 billion? 4 + 4.5 doesn't equal 10.
What's the UK going to do given the impact a collapse of Iceland's banks would have on UK savers and businesses?
THX1138
October 7th, 2008 2:45pm Report this commentPutin's gone to Iceland!!
Faceless Bureaucrat
October 7th, 2008 3:14pm Report this comment"Not that Keflavik would become a Russian air base -- Iceland is a member of Nato, so that is out of the question..."
And who, pray, will go in and kick the Russians out if they decide to take-up residence? - The Icelandic Dog Sleigh Display Team?...
lol
October 7th, 2008 3:18pm Report this commentA highly placed source in Reykavik told me the Russians wanted 23 Icelandic virgins per week for the next 4 years.
Duh.
David Lindsay
October 7th, 2008 3:21pm Report this comment"cause consternation in Washington"
Why?
Old Hack
October 7th, 2008 4:45pm Report this commentSurely the arctic mineral rights issue will come into play?
James Lees
October 7th, 2008 4:52pm Report this commentPerhaps we should extend an invitation for iceland to join a new Sterling area. They could have a seat on the monetary Committee and have Icelandic Banknotes. Anything to restore stability, stop the Russians and help our friends. Also a nice place to go on holiday!
Andrew Forbes
October 7th, 2008 4:57pm Report this commentGiven the price; giving Russia the ability to occupy them at any time at all, you'd have thought they'd hold out for the full E10bn.
Dirty Euro
October 7th, 2008 5:06pm Report this commentBush makes another disatorous geopolitical mistake for the USA. What a beef head. In geopolitical terms has there been a worse US government.
anthony steyning
October 7th, 2008 5:08pm Report this commentWasn't it 2 months or so ago that Iceland was to reported to be happiest, richest, most fulfilling place on earth and Icelanders with the most longevity and all that BS. Can you dig up the dream-team that came up with that report?
David Lindsay
October 7th, 2008 5:45pm Report this commentAnyone who still doubts just how completely unconservative neoconservatism is need only read this thread.
Russia is the pre-eminent protector of the Biblical and Classical civilisation that is the true West, both against the decadent pseudo-West of globalisation, European federalism and American military-industrial hegemony (such as in Georgia), and against the pseudo-West's Islamic allies (such as in Chechnya and Azerbaijan).
Putin has recently said that he would not want streets to be named after him. Well, streets used to be named, and not without cause, in recognition of things like the struggle against apartheid in South Africa. Today, let them be named in recognition of the struggle against globalisation, European federalism, American military-industrial hegemony, and Islamic expansionism: Abkhazia Street, Ossetia Road, Karabakh Avenue, that sort of thing.
Meanwhile, Iceland is the sort of place to which Scottish separatists tend to look for inspiration. And now, it is giving them plenty.
There is a vast financial services sector based in Scotland, and it is very dear to the popular heart there. As well it might be. An independent Scotland could not underwrite one, never mind all, of the Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Standard Life, Scottish Widows, and all the rest of them.
So Scottish independence is now, and really always has been, a dead cause. And it is difficult to see what the point of devolution is, in that case. There is no need to go through the rigmarole of abolishing it. Just let it die of disuse. As, in fact, it is already doing.
Herbert Thornton
October 7th, 2008 6:11pm Report this commentMy first question is - how long are the 4 billion Euros going to retain their value?
And if Russia is in such a poor state as we are constantly told, how come it is in a position to lend 4 billion Euros?
And can we now expect to see China, which I gather has rather large reserves of non-Chinese currency, also lending money to bail out other countries - and if so which? Pakistan is reported to be near bankruptcy - though I suspect the Chinese are too wise to throw money away in the same way as the U.S. has thrown it away in return for worthless mortgages.
Maybe George Brown should ask the Saudi government for money? Oops - I forgot. Saudi money is already pouring in - just look at all the nice shiny new Mosques, complete with advanced education facilities and teachers.
J.B.S. Haldane once suggested that the universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose. I very much incline to say the same thing about the worlds financial system.
Talia
October 7th, 2008 6:13pm Report this commentMr Neil, while you’re here, would you mind sharing your thoughts on the ode to Gordon Brown by Duncan Bannatyne on This Week of September 25?
Andrew Forbes
October 7th, 2008 6:43pm Report this commentDavid Lindsay; Scottish independence will come AFTER the bail out. Don't expect a thankyou, though.
mo9lesworth 1
October 7th, 2008 8:15pm Report this commentThis rumour is forcefully rebuffed here:
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2008/10/iceland-denies-base-offer-to-russia/
Witchhunted
October 7th, 2008 8:54pm Report this commentlol: Icelandic virgins?
Not very familiar with Scandinavian countries, are you?
Kurt Ewiopp
October 7th, 2008 11:08pm Report this commentAll bets are off. The tectonic plates are shifting in world hegemony terms. Clearly, nobody knows WTF is going on anymore, but I wonder if historians will be talking about this in 100 years time, if they are allowed to?
David Short
October 8th, 2008 3:09am Report this commentSomeone's been taking gullibility pills.
Mario Ferrandi
October 10th, 2008 2:53am Report this commentCan't you see the the Western American Empire is falling?
Richard
November 13th, 2008 7:02pm Report this commentI wouldn't count on being a member of NATO as a deterence to Iceland. Britain embargoed Iceland during the Cod wars. Iceland turned to Russia for essential trade. Icelanders and Russians have had good relations ever since.
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