The politics of the crisis
James Forsyth 8:10pm
Westminster is convinced that Gordon Brown is the political beneficiary, at least in the short-term, of the current financial turmoil. Brown looks more energised and confident than he has in a long time, the rebellion within the Labour party has been quashed, and the Tories are in a bind. They have to be supportive of the government lest they be accused of playing politics with the situation but this leaves them looking like they have no ideas of their own as David Cameron found to his cost at PMQs.
But the Populus poll in today’s Times, obviously taken before today’s bail-out, suggests that there is less of a Brown bounce than you might expect. The poll finds the Tories on 45 percent, 15 points ahead of Labour. Admittedly, Labour is up three since August but the Tories are up two since then. This implies that the crisis hasn’t, at least yet, significantly altered the balance of power between the parties.
The internals of the poll offer further encouragement to the Tories. Cameron and Osborne have maintained their 38 to 31 lead over Brown and Darling on who would best handle the economy. While a whopping 65 percent of voters think that it is time for a change.
Today, probably, marked the high-water mark of the crisis for Brown. He took action and looked like a leader. But now Brown is faced by another problem. If the package works, then the dramatic nature of the current meltdown will be replaced by the drudgery of a recession, something that will allow time for a reassessment of Brown’s economic record. While if it fails, Brown’s claim to be the man who can guide Britain through this crisis will be dashed on the rocks.
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mitch
October 8th, 2008 8:41pm Report this commentThe "dead cat" bounce followed by the inevitable recession and endless bad news about jobs lost and house price falls will soon have labour under 20% however much brown spins this happened on his watch,fair or not he will be blamed.Poor joe taxpayer wont see any benefit in his pocket but he will see the banks saved at his expense and those taxes will keep rising.
JimBob
October 8th, 2008 8:46pm Report this commentBrown being Brown, he won't have the guts to cut spending or increase taxes but will just let debt balloon and give two fingers to the future
Even worse, if the general public buys into the current nuLab/BBC narrative then he'll keep on getting away with it
Hysteria
October 8th, 2008 9:42pm Report this commentand if he calls a snap election????
Martin C
October 8th, 2008 10:16pm Report this commentSo far there has been no change of direction in government policy of any significance; NO public sector spending reductions, planned or even mooted.
We already had a record balance of payments deficit, at the end of the boom. Now, as the current problems in the financial sector bite they can be expected to seriously reduce the tax returns received from the city.
Darling must produce a budget forecast shortly. Good. We need some serious comedy to take our minds off the worries such as the state of the jobmarket or the value of our pension funds.
strapworld
October 8th, 2008 10:20pm Report this commentI was at a hospital today and if the comments I heard from fellow patients waiting patiently! are an indication of what we, the common herd, are thinking then Brown and the Bankers are being blamed, equally, for the problems. There was quite an amazing disgust of our taxes being used in such a cavalier manner.
Sorry, Westminster Bubble but get out in the real world, Listen and you will learn a great deal.
Cameron should be shouting from the hilltops. Showing real leadership. He should also bring Kenneth Clark back unto the Front Bench he has far more gravitas on economics than boy george.
Cameron cannot afford to let Brown run the economic debate. HE MUST come out all guns blazing and the letter sent by Michael Howard should have been his attack on Brown today. Peston has got to be sacked. Cameron must demand it.
TGF UKIP
October 8th, 2008 10:43pm Report this commentTwo television images capture it all.
Firstly Marr on Sunday, Osborne and Cable side by side on the couch. Vince languidly authoritative, Boy George butt clenched like a rabbit before headlights - no question about which was primus inter pares there (and just how many more seats do the Tories have than the LibDems?!)
Secondly, PMQ's today and despite (because of?) Dave trying to sound like Dennis Skinner on bank executives' remuneration, the Tory backbenches like church mice, Labour's like a Millwall football crowd especially when it finished by "statesman" Dave being comprehensively hosed by Gorbals Gordon.
The utter stupidity of the promise to match Labour spending and, by direct implication, Labour borrowing right through to 10/11 is now being brought home.
Fergus Pickering
October 8th, 2008 11:12pm Report this commentHysteria, the last poll shows him down 45 to 30. I really don't think a snap election is the way out. There isn't a way out. In Westminster there is a Brown bounce. Everywhere else he is hated and despised. As indeed he should be.
Pete, Scotland
October 8th, 2008 11:34pm Report this commentIt's a shame this crisis will end someday, Gordon Brown is having such a nice time.
Paul Hill
October 9th, 2008 12:08am Report this commentStrapworld -spot on.
Osborne looks like a twelve year old schoolboy;he just hasn't got "it"
Clarke would have vapourised NuLabour over this
The Laughing Cavalier
October 9th, 2008 9:16am Report this commentBrown, being the man that he is, can only see this crisis in terms of confounding his personal enemies. Statemanship doesn't enter into his calculations.
SeanW
October 9th, 2008 10:13am Report this commentThere are two crises..
1.the banking world
2.people's personal problems as a result of Labour's economic record over the last decade.
When it comes to the vote, the second problem will be what people will judge Labour on (hence the opinion polls).
The banking crisis is the just the icing on the cake.
Gordon Musgo
October 9th, 2008 10:29am Report this commentTories support govt in the name of untiy. Govt ministers sneer at tories in parliament.
Hope the tories don't make that mistake again, the duty of an opposition is to oppose, and only to oppose. Not to have a better idea or an alternative plan.
JONNY
October 9th, 2008 10:42am Report this comment@STRAPWORLD
'He should also bring Kenneth Clark back unto the Front Bench'
Yes indeed. A brilliant move, seeing that Ken was chancellor when Gordon was still the novice.
And he still looks surprisingly young. Considering...
Ian C
October 9th, 2008 10:48am Report this commentFor the sceptics
1) Only half the job has been put in place - so if Brown/Darling don't do the other half they will be found out very soon. And I would wager they are patting themselves on the back not even half aware of what yet must be done by government.
2) As said above the pre-budget report is going to bust wide open the idea that Labour are in any sort of control.
3) Any case made now by Tories will not get the hearing so should not be made as it reveals the line of attack with no benefit to them.
4) The bonus restrictions sought by Cameron was for this year only. Pay attention and put your cynicism away. It hurts your wider credibility.
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