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Wednesday, 8th October 2008

A Swedish-inspired plan

Fraser Nelson 8:38pm

Sweden really does rule. What Mervyn King and Gordon Brown have agreed today is, essentially, the Swedish 1992 bank bailout plan, (NYT write-up here). It was authored by the same conservative government which introduced the voucher school model that the Tories are proposing to replicate. While the UK bailout is comparable to the Paulson plan in the US (adjusting for the size of the respective economies) in terms of scale, it is a far better plan. And this is where Gordon Brown does deserve some credit. Instead of buying toxic waste, as Paulson proposes, the UK taxpayer is injecting capital and taking preference shares. This means that if the economy turns around, the UK shareholder will be first in line for the dividends. If the banks go bust, we’ll be first in line for asset sales upon liquidation. The US taxpayer, by contrast, can kiss goodbye to that $700bn because I suspect that toxic waste will just be buried somewhere. The UK/Swedish plan is, of course, part-nationalisation. But this is only because the taxpayer would have equity for their money – and quite right too.

In the US, Paulson just wants to do corporate liposuction, hoovering up the gunk. The Swedes didn’t make a profit on their bailout, but reduced the loss from 5 percent to 2 percent of GDP. They also had a global economic upswing to help them – and this is a huge difference. We could be looking at a L-shaped downturn.

Like the Paulson Plan there is just so, so much to this plan that we don’t know. How many banks will take the £50bn Tier 1 Capital pot, whether it will become £100bn or £200bn pot and who will pay for it. Sorry, we do know: we will all pay for it. Darling’s Mais lecture tonight should, I hope, level with the British public and let us know we’ll all be getting the bill.

Hat tip: Johan Norberg
 
PS I know the phrase “in fairness to Brown” will jar with some CoffeeHousers. After the stunt Brown and Darling pulled taking false credit for the Special Liquidity Scheme, I’ll reserve the right o revise my opinion on who authored today’s bailout plan. But for now, I’ll take Brown at his word.

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John Page

October 8th, 2008 9:08pm Report this comment

Hm, wonder if that other man in the picture you chose had anything to do with it....

mitch

October 8th, 2008 9:17pm Report this comment

"But for now, I’ll take Brown at his word."

Oh dear! what possible reason could you have to do that?

Michael

October 8th, 2008 9:23pm Report this comment

Sorry Fraser,
All, Vince Cable, Tory financial pundit, Ken Clarke were saying that the banks should be recapitalised. None were recommending a Paulson plan of buying toxic assets. Brown cannot be credited with this plan which was a long time in coming after Monday's fiasco by Alisdair Darling in parliament.
And don't forget Mervyn King and the treasury who are full of economists not to mention that we have a Chancellor whose job it is to shepherd these things through the public service. None of these things were Brown's brilliance.

Hadrian

October 8th, 2008 9:37pm Report this comment

Crucial, Fraser, to the Scandanavian bail out was the tiny fact they were indeed lucky enough to be entering an up-turn; We most certainly are not. I am a Jeremiah enough to doubt the long term advisability or even viability of all this further money crunching, pain avoiding pandering. Until idiot Brown stops his own profligacy we remain in a very long tunnel- even if the lights can ever so temporarily be switched back on.

Paul

October 8th, 2008 9:39pm Report this comment

Erm, haven't they just copied Warren Buffett?

Bocephus

October 8th, 2008 10:10pm Report this comment

Just seen a clip of Brown on SKY News. He seems to be enjoying this all a bit too much.

Short the UK

October 8th, 2008 10:13pm Report this comment

I applaud the pref. share action plan. Nouriel Roubini has been banging on about it for ages. He reckons the Yanks will probably have to follow this path. The markets hate the TARP. What I can't get my head around is whether we are going into a prolonged deflationary slump, a mini-deflationary slump, or a long term inflationary cycle. There will be little wealth and preserving capital will be a monumental struggle. We are all going to become much poorer - that is the bottom line. I thought about this when I was looking at fellow shoppers in ASDA today - its going to get very rough.

Austin Barry

October 8th, 2008 10:13pm Report this comment

Fraser, your be-nice-to-Gordon syndrome is a concern of Coffee Housers but is, thankfully, a treatable condition. I suggest that you consult an understanding health care professional as soon as possible. They will have you back on your contra-Broon feet in short order. Bless.

mac

October 8th, 2008 11:34pm Report this comment

Ah, is this why you described Toynbee as 'superb', Fraser; you share her boundless admiration for Svensk politik?

hadrian

October 8th, 2008 11:48pm Report this comment

I suppose, Austin, it's why we all love Fraser so much- apart from being a whiz kid with facts and details, and his dashing good looks, of course- it's his cheerful generosity of spirit. In this instance I think he's being delusional, however!

Dirty Euro

October 8th, 2008 11:51pm Report this comment

But some theorists say the toxic DEBT waste is far larger than the USA banks claim. They say some non american banks bought some of this USA debt, thinking it was a good USA investment, when in reality it was a enron style fraud debt created by crooked US bankers, but now non American banks are staying clear of the USA. This might be conspiracy theory though. :

TGF UKIP

October 8th, 2008 11:58pm Report this comment

"Sweden really does rule." Just remind us, Fraser, of the name of Mrs Nelson's home country.

Fergus Pickering

October 9th, 2008 3:23am Report this comment

All I remember about Sweden from a flying visit many years ago was that it was bloody cold and miserable and getting a bottle of Scotch to make it look and feel better was quite an operation. In the words of theimmortal Ian Botham I wouldn't send my mother-in-law there.

Hereford

October 9th, 2008 7:51am Report this comment

You say that the UK taxpayer will profit from any upturn because of the structure of this plan. We absolutely will not. We will never ever see a penny returned to us in any form of rebate. It will be sucked up by the insatiable hunger of Government for revenue to spend on grandios non value adding schemes.

Read this article if you want an honest assessment of what GB and AD are doing.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/banks-to-lend-you-your-own-money-200810081308/

Kevin the Gerbil

October 9th, 2008 8:51am Report this comment

To Fraser's detractors.

Be thankful for small mercies. If the Editor had taken this slot, he would have been rhapsodising about Brown's little joke in response to the mobile phone going off.

"It may turn out to have been the moment that the political tide started to turn ...(etc)"

Letters From A Tory

October 9th, 2008 10:10am Report this comment

There is no question that the scale of this move by the government has helped restore some confidence in the market, but whether taxpayers are facing yet another massive bill courtesy of Labour seems a much more complicated issue.

Ian C

October 9th, 2008 10:27am Report this comment

Before we all get carried away with how wonderful Sweden is, we may not think so well of them in a few weeks time when/if a Baltic State or two get into trouble and the banks in Sweden come tumbling down again as they are 'long' on Baltic banks apparently.

Also, before we heave too huge a sigh of relief that some effective action has finally been taken, we have done half of it. The other half necessary is to ensure that the 'toxicity' is bled from the system. Simply sending in a few billion quid is not going to do that - it actually takes the auditors to insist it is written off now and added back later as it performs - or it is pooled per the Paulson approach and set aside. Either way the balance sheets of the banks have to take the hit. We still do not know by how much.

Both elements are necessary in order to get the result we need, which is liquidity now. But noone is forcing the pace on the toxic stuff over here, while Paulson/Bernanke are now moving ahead with taking stakes in Banks per the action we took yesterday.

A long way to go - and writing off toxic debt is now a political football.

Arbie

October 9th, 2008 12:42pm Report this comment

Actually I rather liked your credit to Brown line. I wouldn't want to read someone who puts previous/general personal or ideologically-based disagreements ahead of proper analysis, even if it means you saying some things you hadn't thought previously possible.

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