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Friday, 10th October 2008

The early signs aren't promising for Brown

Peter Hoskin 10:46am

It's down, down, down for the markets - and how.  The Dow Jones closed down by 7.33 percent; Nasdaq down 5.47 percent; and the Nikkei down 9.62 percent.  Whilst the DAX is currently down by 9.25 percent, and our very own FTSE has plummeted by 7.34 percent. What's more, three-month LIBOR rates - the rates at which banks tend to lend to each other - aren't showing much sign of downwards momentum after the series of coordinated interest-rate cuts by central banks.

Of course, it's early days as far as the bailout package is concerned, but these latest indicators do suggest that the banks, the brokers and the analysts have their eyes more firmly rooted on an impending recession, than on Brown's efforts.  Problem is - for our PM - the less effect the bailout seems to be having, the less political capital he'll be able to gain out of this situation.  "£400 billion of taxpayers' money for nothing" is hardly a good message by which to restore a beleagured premiership.  So - as James observed earlier - don't bet against that smile fading soon.  And don't bet against our PM leaning on the Bank of England to cut interest rates even further.

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Ian C

October 10th, 2008 11:04am Report this comment

Lower interest rates will make no difference in the present frenzy of selling and deter those with cash from doing what we all need them to do - put it on depoist in a UK regulated bank. So if he presses for that he will be stuffing himself. If he does not he will be seen as doing nothing. He's done for. But postponed until the new set of realities dawn.

Tories need to start poistioning themselves for calling this - but not yet.

TrevorsDen

October 10th, 2008 11:13am Report this comment

Meantime Brown is now grinning his way round Swindon - before a specially invited audience to tell us how clever his bale out is.

Does he know whats happening in the stock exchange? Probably but I guess he does not care tuppence about the affect all this is having on pensions, we all know he does not give a toss about peoples pension plans.

Call me old fashioned but I would have thought in this crisis the PM should be in Downing St (not party politicking in a marginal constituency) - even if it is only on his knees praying for a miracle.

Travis Bickle

October 10th, 2008 11:16am Report this comment

So the great leader's plan fails, never fear he'll position himself as not really having had anything to do with it and grinningly try and pin the blame on someone else. You never know he might even crack a few more jokes along the way, as the rest of us see our savings, houses and jobs go to hell in a handcart.

TrevorsDen

October 10th, 2008 11:28am Report this comment

Watching brown on TV right now and its clear he has completely lost control of his hands and arms - the Guy in Germany whose just got 2 new ones has more control. I wonder if this is an analogy for our economy?

Brown is trying to claim credit for the oil price coming down !! Incredible. The oil price is coming down because we are heading for a recession.

Gosh here we go again - its a global economy and the credit crunch is nothing to to with what happened in Britain ...

He seems to be talking to a carefully invited audience of local authority secretaries

David C

October 10th, 2008 11:56am Report this comment

When he begins turing the schools explaining the genius of his scheme, I'm going to start pulling my gold teeth before the government does.

Bob. India

October 10th, 2008 12:28pm Report this comment

I wonder if Brown has factored into "his" plan to save us all, what the BBC's Robert Preston draws our attention to on www.bbc.co.uk/blogs . Preston mentions "But it's as well to remember that they (World-wide stock market crashes) are the symptom of the disease, not the disease itself"

He continues, "The underlying illness remains in the financial system" and "serious anxiety concerns the auction today to settle liabilities on insurance - or credit default swaps - on debt of the collapsed investment bank, Lehman Brothers"

"There are estimates that claims under insurance contracts will total $400bn (and) if demands for payment are as big as $400bn, there will be pain for banks, insurers, hedge funds and other financial institutions.”

He further writes, “So this day of reckoning (10 Oct 08) on Lehman credit default swaps is momentous - and it could not come at a worse time for fragile bank shares.

“(Urgent) is for the US Treasury Secretary to decide how and whether he will inject US taxpayers' money into banks to recapitalise and strengthen them, along the lines of what the British Treasury is proposing to do.

But he "only" has $700bn to play with, which no longer looks that enormous in the context of the $400bn claims that may be enforced in just the next, anxiety-inducing few hours.”

Perhaps Brown’s smile will be wiped away even quicker than we think.

Nicholas

October 10th, 2008 12:50pm Report this comment

Anand's bigging up of Gordon on DP today failed spectacularly when the body language expert explained in no uncertain terms just how psychologically flawed the "Great Leader" is. Wish I'd taped it and recorded each and every damning detail of the nutjob in No.10.

Hereford

October 10th, 2008 1:12pm Report this comment

Does he know whats happening in the stock exchange?

In Brown's case his major concern will be to ensure that whoever he is talking to at the time is unlikely to know. He knows that, unless he tells a lie the truth of which is obviously public knowlege within the event, he will ge away with it by insisting that he was quoted out of context or, as he often does, simply deny that he said it.

He should be a used car salesman.

Richard Holloway

October 10th, 2008 2:29pm Report this comment

Cameron's position looks a little better today. No intervention will now change the direction of the markets. Confidence has been replaced by fear and the only thing that will change that attitude is time. Which seems to be exactly what Cameron is waiting for. Brown's bailout has given him a day or so of happiness. It won't last. Not when unemployment goes through the roof and taxes rise.
The Conservatives are going to be left to pick up the pieces here. Mark my words.

m dowding

October 10th, 2008 2:43pm Report this comment

It would be an excellent time for Conservatives to announce the restoration of tax relief on pension fund dividends.

dennis

October 10th, 2008 6:35pm Report this comment

Nicholas

That psychoanalyst's take on Brown can be seen again here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/7663563.stm

Maybe someone could embed it in coffee house for posterity?

JohnAnt

October 11th, 2008 11:18pm Report this comment

Maybe we can get the Dear Leader to sit on an oil well, just to illustrate his point

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