Brown gets a poll boost but the Tories are still ten points ahead

Dirty Euro

He is going blind according to the telegraph. Now tories cannot be nasty to him. LOL, That will put them in a pickle. The queen looks nasty now for making fun of him for not being able to find his way. Bring in the republic. :

John Page

For all Brown's faults, I don't think he's sunning himself by the pool - that would be a poll boost (heading).

strapworld

Mr. Forsyth, Whilst I agree with your conclusions I am still extremely unhappy with Cameron. When, on Sky News this morning, he was given the opportunity to back John Maples, in his call for Bank Bosses to resign or be sacked!, he gave a lukewarm answer.

Is he beyond leading this debate?

TrevorsDen

'Political Betting' point out amongst others two following findings

"Gordon Brown mismanaged Britain’s public finances when he was Chancellor, and he will use the crisis as an excuse for raising taxes. AGREE 49% - DISAGREE 34%

Do you think Gordon Brown is doing well or badly as prime minister? BADLY 65% - WELL 31% "
and
"only 29% thought Brown was handling things well, against 37% who thought think he was handling things badly."

This is positive news for Brown??
Lets remember this is a public opinion of Brown before the truth about his switch to a risk based 'light touch' regulatory regime in 2005 has become general public knowledge - that the full responsibility for the surprise with which this whirlwind of financial disaster rests with him and him alone (after all Ed Balls will be keeping a desperately low profile on this one)

It seems to me the swings shown are well within statistical error.

The Lib Dems seem to be generally slipping.

The Laughing Cavalier

The extent to which Brown is revelling in this crisis because it saves his own political skin is truly disgusting.

mitch

I heard General Galtieri was quite popular once.
Bye bye brown looks like you wont get a chance to see what you have wrought.

Short the UK

I think its 50/50 that Britain could go bust this coming week.

Gordon Brown stuffed the MPC with doves and now we will pay the price. He left the crummy FSA regulating banks. All praise to the Bundesbank.

There was an incestuous relationship between the City and Downing Street. Both wanted a boom: one to get votes and the other to get profit. This diabolical relationship has imperiled us all. The greed is obscene. Corruption at the heart of our country. The selfishness is staggering. I could weep. Where are the leaders who believe in prudence and honesty - of living within your means. For a stiff upper lip. Not crazy get rich schemes. In the seventies it was the workers who screwed and destroyed our country, now it is the ruling elite.

I expect to see rioting pensioners outside Downing Street in the coming years.

The police will get whacked by walking sticks and zimmer frames. Their toes will get run over by a supped up mobility scooters. Yorkshire terriers will be savagely attacking alsatians.

Japan opens at 1am - could be worth a late night with Bloomberg TV, a stiff scotch and a revolver.

Hey ho.

Kev G

I agree with your prognosis but no thanks to the polls, most of which predicted a Labour majority of over 100 at the last election.

It is the spread-betting companies we should be watching after the dust has settled.

TGF UKIP

Oh dear, James, you're getting nearly as bad as Fraser and his aged alter ego, Tiberius, at putting the best Tory gloss on poll results and on the recent economic news.

As I frequently post, to measure the Tory performance as an opposition you have to put it in context. If you do that by going back, say, twelve years, while the Major government of that time was not even a tenth as bad as this lot, the Labour Opposition had it dead and buried and beyond any chance of revival.

The failure of Dave & Co to come anywhere near achieving that level of terminal destruction of Brown and his rotten lot, accounts for Labour seeing themselves as having everything to fight for and indeed, more than halving the Tory lead in less than a month does provide them with significant political momentum.

The relevant factor, though, in the poll results which neither yourself, James, nor Fraser, ever comment on, is the significant variations behind the headline figures which is why I recommend Coffee Housers to avail themselves of James' link and look at the results in detail.

As usual in this poll the already heavily Tory south of the country skews the overall headline figures towards the Tories. In this regard, it's interesting to note that, even setting aside the soviet socialist republic, Labour has a small lead in the North where many marginals are located. Similarly, while the Tries have a 15% lead in the ABC1 group, that shrinks to just 4% for C2DE. Similar variations exist in the age groupings and on most of the other questions put in this poll.

On the present economic crisis, James, I believe you are being far too sanguine in your expectation that if and when the markets panic abates, job losses, hard times and recession will ensure a re-assertion of a big Tory lead. I'm not so sure that will be necessarily so.

Gordon is a clever as well as an evil sod and it seems to me that he is constructing a halfway plausible narrative.

This is that we Brits have our backs to the wall in an "economic war" visited on this country by "events in the US" and the failure of international markets. In other words, it's every other bugger's fault except Gordon's and the hardships, job losses and recession we will have to bear is all part of the sacrifice of war. Naturally, the corollary of this will be that to disagree with Gordon at this time of national unity and survival will be deemed to be deeply unpatriotic. (As Dave, however, has so far gone along with his spend, borrow and tax policies, Gordon probably has little to fear from that quarter.)

Then in, hopefully, late 2009 or early 2010, when the worst of the crisis starts to abate and better times appear on the horizon, Gordon will claim to be the wartime leader who brought Britain through its darkest economic hour and claim the right in June 2010 to lead the British people to the sunny economic uplands once more.

Of course and especially if the Tories start behaving like a proper opposition, the British people might not fall for Gordon's "economic wartime" ruse and even if they do they might still end up doing to him in 2010 what they did to Churchill in 1945.

biggestaspidistra

'to see what is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle', George Orwell (borrowed from Andrew Sullivan's blog)

Trumpeter Lanfried

A lesson from 1945: Churchill, the saviour of the nation, had brought us through our darkest hour. Then the electorate spoke: 'Sack him!'

A similar fate awaits Gordon Brown.

Keith

Very strange...in my little neck of the woods, I've met only one person who is pro-Brown....the comments of the rest are unprintable here.

Susan Hill

Brown knows how ordinary people live. Cameron hasn`t a clue on that subject. Brown has a decent salary but is not a rich man. Cameron has access to vast amounts of family wealth, as does his wife. Nothing wrong with that but it puts him out of touch with normal people. In spite of his many flaws, Brown has never been out of touch with them. And right now, that not only matters, it should be seen to matter. But just as Cameron should see the way the wind is blowing and rap Hague over the knuckles for the Lake Como jolly, Brown should tell Mandelson to give up his nice fat bonus for not finishing his euro-job - or get out. Litmus test for them both. But don`t hold your breath on either.

Roy Simpson

Ken Clarke's performance on Thursday's Question Time should surely convince David Cameron that there is no one better than he to run the Shadow Chancellor portfolio, (and eventually the real thing.)

George Osborne's recent media interviews and parliamentary performance have been less than impressive, although as he acquires more experience I am sure that he will become a valuable asset to the Conservative Party.

The lead which Brown and Darling have opened ahead of Cameron and Osborne on the question of who voters trust to best handle this crisis, is cause for concern.

Mr Clarke's views on European membership,(which I personally strongly oppose), would not, in my view, be detrimental.

Whilst I respect and applaud what Mr Cameron has done to revitalise the Tory party, he should show further that he has the leadership qualities that are required to lead Britain's greatest political party, by putting the party's interest before personal friendship.

Tiberius

Undoubtedly, Brown has had his fair share of personal tragedy with his eyesight and his children. His obsession with being PM is also unhealty since he clearly isn't up to the job.

But history will judge him for his performance as a professional politician which, also undoubtedly, is a catastrophe.

Let's hope that 10 point lead is still in place when the GE comes. Brown in perpetuity is reason to consider emigrating to Malawi.

Travis Bickle

Susan Hill

excuse me whilst I reach for a huge pinch of salt in reading that complete nonsense. Brown has never been poor, and anyone who understood, or cared a jot about, those who are would not have doubled their starting rate of tax for personal political points scoring.

Kat

Brown has no idea how ordinary people live, none whatsoever. It's not just to do with salary. He has had a life that bears no relation to the sort of life most people have - read Tom Bower's biography if you want more details.

Cameron may be wealthy, but has a great ability to connect with people - he has a completely different personality to Brown.

Bob the Fish

There are two ways to look at this poll? Sorry - there's only one.

"...the best that Labour can do is to close the gap to ten points that is hardly encouraging for them.." Look where they've closed it from. On September 17th the Tories' lead was a whopping 28%. Polling is now back to the level it was just after Gordon Brown decided not to call an election. The Tories have a good year, poll-wise, but any ground they may have gained has drifted away. The heady days of summer when the Tories constantly enjoyed poll leads in the 20% region are gone. Since then the trend has reversed. Instead of polling in the high 40s, the Tories have moved towards the low 40s. Labour's consistent 20s have moved into the 30s. Numbers don't lie.

jennywren

On the subject of the polls it would be incredible if Brown had not had a boost since every news bulletin on the BBC in the last week seems to have started with the words 'Gordon Brown'. His obvious glee in the face of the current crisis however, when many people are seriously concerned about their future is reprehensible, shows that he lacks real leadership skills, and will come back to haunt him when the dust settles. This is no Falklands moment for Brown. (Mrs. Thatcher was never caught giggling during that crisis incidentally.)
Re Susan's post above, I find it sad that people believe that wealth is necessarily a barrier to understanding how 'ordinary people' (whatever that means) live. Many so called 'ordinary people', or politicians from 'ordinary backgrounds' have no idea how anyone else lives themselves. Selfishness and empathy are not class specific in my experience.

TGF UKIP

Roy Simpson, I have been of the view that Osborne carries no credibility in the role of Shadow Chancellor ever since he was first so appointed by Michael Howard.

However, I cannot agree that Clarke would be a satisfactory remedy for Osborne's deficiencies even though he has the necessary weight and media presence.

My reasons for this are that Clarke carries the prohibitive baggage of an unrestrained tongue, a monstrous ego, a complete absence of discipline and a proclivity for being massively disruptive.

In this regard, I just ask you to cast your mind back to the nineties and poor old Major's problems over Europe. Then, whenever there was a welcome period of silence from "the bastards," Clarke could always be relied upon to make a highly inflammatory europhile speech to ignite the whole issue again to the delight of Labour and the BBC.

Indeed, you can measure just how unsuitable Clarke would be now, by the welcome there would be for him at the BBC and particularly the Today Programme. They would happily have him on at least once a week, ostensibly as Shadow Chancellor, but in reality in the knowledge that he could be completely relied upon to use his favourite word "bonkers" at the drop of a hat to describe not only Tory policy on Europe but on any other policy which might be at variance with his own One Nation social democrat beliefs.

Moreover, I suspect Dave knows only too well that to so elevate Clarke would mean kissing goodbye to a great many party constituency workers.

The man who does have the heft, media presence and economic backgound to be a really heavyweight Shadow Chancellor is, of course, David Davis. Unfortunately, though, Dave is probably quite rightly fearful of how DD in such a role might throw into rather cruel relief Dave's own lightweight defiencies.

John

"Brown knows how ordinary people live... In spite of his many flaws, Brown has never been out of touch with them"

ROFLMAO. That evil, lying *&^%$ has no clue how ordinary people live, nor does he give a flying monkey. That's why he abolished the 10% rate.

In my neck of the woods, it's years since I've heard even one single solitary person express a printable opinion about McPinocchio.

John

"Numbers don't lie"

But opinions polls do. They are notoriously unreliable. Most people say what they think would reflect well on them, and then vote differently.

As to the ghastly Clarke ... the only weight he has is the one pushing his belt outward. He is completely without principles, integrity, honesty or indeed common sense - his demented support for the USSR of Euroland is proof of that.

IvyEileen

Re: Susan Hill and Brown "connecting" with ordinary people - many years ago (when NuLabour was in Opposition), I would travel through Edinburgh airport on a Sunday afternoon to Heathrow.

Invariably, one GB would appear in the departure lounge, announce himself to the check-in girl and then disappear. It was only on the 3rd or 4th occasion I noticed that, when she picked up the 'phone, GB would appear and embark. A little later, she would call the rest of us to the departure gate, where we took our turn in the queue.

On the 'plane, we would find GB in his seat and reading his papers - we (the great unwashed) were ignored.

Austin Barry

Has anyone noticed how Brown's vision (real rather than metaphorical) problems have been getting a lot of play over the last couple of days? Preparing the ground for an honorable exit after the November by-election?

Nigel Bradshaw

For the first time since his 30 August Guardian interview, Alistair Darling came across (BBC TODAY programme this morning) as his own man, impressive, confident and human. Gordon Brown look out!

cuffleyburgers

I do not share your upbeat interpretation of these poll results. In my view they reflect badly on an opposition which has simply not unleashed the attack dogs.

Now there is an argument which says that at a time when the only thing that stands between the savers and pensioners of the country and total ruin is the credibility of the government, that this is no time to be laying to with the cat o' nine tails.

I disagree. The best interests of the people of this country lie in being kept aware of the extent to which they have been betrayed by labour in general and by Brown in particular, he extent to which the blame for the gravity of this crisis lies with him, his hubris and incompetence, and the opposition's job at this time is to stand up for the tax payer who will be paying the bills for generations to come.

Osborne has been unimpressive (pretty well invisible) during this business as has Cameron.

This is an idea time to be trumpeting the virtues of sound money, low taxes smaller government, but I strain my ears but cannot hear this chorus.

Shrewd observation by A Barry.

Travis Bickle

It's all well and good slating the Tories for not going into full out attack mode but given the MSM (and not just BBC) have largely swallowed, in fact promoted, the Brown hype then if they had you can count on the fact that Osborne and Cameron would have been blamed for what happened last week.

(The ITV report this morning was especially laughable suggesting that the public were fickle because Brown was still 10 points behind in the polls)