He's just making it up now

Chris Blore

Daniel Finkelstein has a particularly amusing piece on Comment Central about his claim to "end boom and bust". Apparently, he reckons he promised "no more Tory boom and bust" (which he achieved on the day he took office, simply through the act of replacing the Conservative administration!). Yet another example of something he's just made up!

CS

Well, I imagine that the get out line is "as a proportion of our national income". If the debt stays the same but the economy grows over the last 11 years, then debt as a proportion of national income drops.

Of course it's all bollocks (excuse the technical terms). This is the sort of thing Cameron should concentrate on at PMQs.

You told a fib yesterday. Back it up with proof. None of us will understand the answers but it should hit Brown where he needs to be hit - lying about finance.

RobertD

Since G Brown is now a shadow director in three major banks perhaps the FSA and LSE should apply to him the sanctions appropriate to directors who deliberately or negligently make false statements about their company in order to profit from a false market. Disqualification and massive personal fines as a start point.

Harold Vest

I saw this today and couldn't believe he said it. None of the nation's "leading" journalists challenged the claim in the numerous questions that followed either.

Geoff

What it means Frazier is that if he hadn't have wiped off the £100bn, net debt in August would have been £100bn higher than it actually is.

He is not saying he reduced it to £100bn, but by £100bn.

Cheers

Oor Willie

Fraser,true but no one challenges him!
Another Brownie was ocntained in his question/answer session in France on Sunday, where he claimed to have been calling for global solutios (regulation) for global problems FOR THE LAST 9 YEARS.
Presumably this would have been based on his own brand of regulation which has patently failed, but no journalist made this very obvious point.
I despair.

Gene Fox

Oh do shut up. Your punch and judy nonsense is so immature. You all behave like it's business as usual with your petty point scoring. This is what so disgusts most voters about the so- called political classes.

Mike, Brighton

Q: Why don't journalists challenge Brown on his dodgy statistics?
A: Because they will be cut out of government "off the record briefings", their careers will be damaged and frankly many are just too ignorant and lazy to do anything other than cut n' paste press releases (spin) and wikipedia

Bocephus

I am at a loss as to how the nationalisation of our banks can be portrayed as a triumph for Brown. Nationalisation is a last resort after all else has failed. A triumph would be finding a way out of this mess without nationalisation. If he hadn't done it clearly the country would have disappeared into a black hole.

What about the destruction of Lloyds TSB. A few weeks ago we were being told this was a conservatively run bank whom Brown had persuaded to rescue HBOS. Fast forward 3 weeks they are now a basket case needing 40% government ownership. Gee thanks Gordon.

This is an utter humiliation for Brown with his economic record in ruins. Every country is having problems but Australia, until very recently run by John Howard and Canada - Conservative Government - don't seem to be in the same mess as us.

Mike, Brighton

Gene Fox. Why don't we just cancel democracy and declare Brown as the Great Helmsman and Dear Leader for Life?

Er, no it's something called scrutiny of the executive. Long may it continue to whatever party is in power!

Lord Elvis of Paisley

There's another great piece of Brownspeak on the BBC website at the minute where he basically states that the UK property market is well placed to bounce back because we "failed" to build enough houses, and this one's a doozy;

He said the UK problem was not shortage of demand for homes at "the right prices" but a shortage of mortgages "at the right prices for people to buy".

WTF???

CS

***Since G Brown is now a shadow director in three major banks perhaps the FSA and LSE should apply to him the sanctions appropriate to directors who deliberately or negligently make false statements***

Not possible I'm afraid, Robert D. The FSA and LSE only work 9-5 weekdays.

Chris S

You're mixing up the level of debt and the proportion of national income (which is what the PM referred to). Here's what the ONS says:

Public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), was 43.3 per cent at the end of August 2008, compared with 36.4 per cent at end of August 2007. The increase was largely due to Northern Rock which is now included in the figures from October 2007, the date of its classification to the public sector; latest figures for June 2008 show Northern Rock adding 6.0 per cent to the debt ratio.

Debt peaked at 44.8 per cent of GDP in 1997, its highest since the mid-1980s. The debt ratio then fell steadily as public sector finances improved, reaching a low of 29.6 per cent in March 2002. Since then it has risen. The Budget forecast for the end of March 2009 is 38.5 per cent.

Net debt was £632.7 billion at the end of August, compared with £506.8 billion a year earlier. The Budget forecast for net debt at the end of March 2009 is £581 billion.
Source: Office for National Statistics

In other words, even with Northern Rock, debt is lower than the Government inherited in 1997.

The other thing to understand about public sector debt is that "net" debt offsets liabilities with short term financial assets but not long term ones such as the value of the NR mortgage book.

CS

Gene, so the PM tells a porkie pie and we have to swallow it without complaint for fear that we'd be accused of partisanship?

CS

***None of the nation's "leading" journalists challenged the claim***

Well he gave the speech to the Lobby, didn't he? None of the nation's leading journalists would have been in the room.

J Ladd

What's wrong with our supine journalist that so many of them just keep letting that cretin Brown off the hook? - He lies, its in his genes and you lot just swoon at his feet - DO YOUR JOB AND LET THE WHOLE COUNTRY KNOW WHAT A DISHONEST CREEP HE IS

Henry Rogers

I'm curious about Lloyds. If they were not about to join with HBOS, would they be able to stand aside, if they so wished, from government "help" or not? If they are still sound are their major shareholders likely to plug the plug on the merger. It should be interesting to watch events, in a voyeuristic sort of way.

The PM doesn't look quite so cheerful as he did at the end of last week. Bearing in mind the wise words of the shrink on 'The Daily Politics' it will be interesting to observe his moods over the next week or so. I do pity the people who work for and with him.

CS

***What about the destruction of Lloyds TSB. A few weeks ago we were being told this was a conservatively run bank whom Brown had persuaded to rescue HBOS.***

Rang my building society's automated phone line at lunchtime to transfer some cash. Got a recorded message as follows:

"We appreciate that many savers are concerned about the security of their savings. You can feel reassured however by the fact that we are a division of Lloyds TSB. Lloyds TSB is very well funded and was recently assessed as Britain's safest bank by Global Finance Magazine."

CS

Chris S, that's very well explained. The problem is that the economy is about to nosedive and with it GDP. Yet the amount of debt won't budge.

Something tells me that Brown won't be relying on "relative debt" when that happens.

Jonathan Hall

Hi Chris...

Just one question - do you really believe that March 2009 forecast? Is it even up to date? I think we both know the answer and so does Gordon. which makes his claims to have reduced debt, very hollow indeed.

GNeilson

Chris S, I think the more pertinent point is that GB used an absolute figure (£100bn) not the relative figures you quote. It is a blatant lie and no amount of relativity will excuse it.

oldtimer

I watched the press confernence and answers to journalists questions on Sky. In it, and
particularly in his answers, he made a number of misleading statements. Here are four:

He claimed the problem is all global whereas in fact much of it is UK originated. Prime
examples include 125% loans, income self certification, under capitalised trading and,
most important of all a failure of the regulatory structure.

He claimed it is the first global financial crisis. This ignores the consequences of the
1970s oil shocks, namely the Plaza Accord and the rise of the petro$ and euro$ with
their devastating consequences for foreign exchange rates and third world debts. Then, as now, the sums involved were huge multiples of underlying volumes of international
trade. Resolution required global action. Today it is a different kind of problem requiring a global solution, but is by no means the first

He claimed that banks had misled the regulators by holding debt off balance sheet -
ignoring the fact that he does exactly the same thing when he accounts for the national
finances.

He claimed that FSA reform had improved regulation by combining several agancies into
one. Yet the scale of the problem now faced is clearly systemic. It is not just the problem of one bank. The regulatory system has clearly failed to identify and correct the problem. If just one institution had failed it might have been dismissed as happenstance. But the fact is that we have had Northern Rock, Bradford and Bingley, HBOS and RBS fail. Furthermore
Lloyds-TSB has been sucked into the vortex by an opportunistic (and ill-considered) acquisition of HBOS, supported by the government.

The consequences of these events and the measures to acquire shares in the banks will now be extremely damaging to pension funds and savers who depend on their dividends.

Mr Brown should resign - along with the four disgraced bank chiefs who have or will
step down from office. His attempt to dodge responsibility, to claim "leadership" and to
provide the "rock and stability" is as contemptible as it is grotesque.

TrevorsDen

We have allegedly had 11 years of growth - in fact something like 14-15 years of growth since we had about 4 years under the last conservative administration.

So after all that time we have more debt. And we have a massive spending deficit - all at the start of the down swing.

Public sector debt fell because Brown followed Tory spending plans. Since then he has let spending rip and revenues have been consistently failing to meet expectations for several years now.

Fiddling with GDP is just smoke and mirrors Brown is clearly trying to say the debt figure is down when its shot up.

Immigration has fuelled GDP without actually adding anything concrete to national wealth - our numbers on benefits have gone up instead.

Ken

Chris S. Actually Brown is lying. The proportion of debt to national income is 43.3% relative to the 44.8%. 1.5% of GDP is not £100 billion. Only if one excludes Northern Rock can he make this claim. Given that he has shifted lots of debts off-balance sheet (PFI), I dont think he can then make the claim that he should also be allowed to simply knock NR off as well.

And it is deeply flattering to use the peak of borrowing (eg, after a major recession) and compare it to the beginning of the Brown Recession. Gordon's rep as a good chancellor is rubbish anyway since it the boom was all about external factors and now for the pillock to claim that the bust is mainly external just tops it all off.

Nicholas

Smacks of Campbell and Mandelson. If you are going to lie make it a really big and outrageous one.

Since they've been back on the scene I notice the Coffee House is being closely monitored by the rabid rebuttal unit. The situation is so dire it will be all about spin.

And let me tell you, Gene Fox, whoever you are, what most voters are so disgusted about is the constant lies and spin which are the first and last resort of this most contemptible of governments in the face of anything remotely resembling the truth. New Labour have buried truth and integrity, the ideals of public service and every other laudable quality of our parliamentary democracy beneath a stinking year on year pile of lies, corruption and deceit.

Harold Vest

"Well he gave the speech to the Lobby, didn't he? None of the nation's leading journalists would have been in the room." - CS

Hence why I put leading in inverted commas.

Toby

Chris S nails it, but Coffee House could have saved their own blushes if they had bothered to do their own research.

GB did indeed pay off substantial amounts of debt in the early years of the Labour Government, and was attacked for doing so.

From memory, the proceeds of the mobile phone spectrum auction alone netted a huge amount (looked it up: £22.47bn) which was used to pay off debt in 2000.

Whilst debt was reduced substantially over 6 years, it's climbing now and is off the scale if all the new debt is to be taken into account, it's disingenuous to claim that Brown was fibbing in his claim of 100bn paid off (which is why journalists didn't embarrass themselves for questioning it).

You'll be checking all that out no doubt and then offering an apology, right?

Henry Crun

Brown's comments about off-balance sheet debt are even more contemptible given that, in his Mansion House speech of 2007 he boasted how he resisted calls for a British Sarbanes Oxley regime. S-O would have made off-balance sheet reporting compulsory in year end financial reports and made cheif executives more accountable.

geoffDC

Totally blindingly economically illiterate. You are making us all look like fools and not helping the tory message at all.

Debt peaked at 44.8 per cent of GDP in 1997

It was 36.4 per cent at end of August 2007.

That has given us some room for additional borrowing and represents a bit more than 100m off of the national debt.

Debt is now climbing fast, but as a result of the banking rescue package.

So only WITH northern rock does it get back to the same sort of level as 97- 43.3%

sams

Ken, he isnt lieing you just missed his point. He is intentionally excluding Northern Rock because he is talking about debt BEFORE banks started getting in trouble - he is talking about his room for increasing debt via the nationalisations.

This whole original post and thread are a shame because the brownies were exactly that early on - indefensible untruths - but they have now become as unclear and murky themselves as the "facts" they are disputing.

We might as well talk about Spectatories - claims that Brown has told a lie when in fact its a misrepresentation of what he said.

Alfred T Mahan

Brown's comment is ambiguous and could refer to an absolute figure or a relative one, IMHO. I would have let him off the hook on the precise accuracy as it was an ad-lib during a press conference, were it not for his history of telling Brownies whenever it suits him.

In this case, he has entirely misrepresented the state of public finances. He's trying to give us the impression that he has been saving money, and we all know he threw money at public services faster than they could spend it.

Many small-time crooks have a similar behaviour pattern, incidentally - they wrap a web of deceit around a grain of truth. It provides self-justification and throws others off the scent. I'm sorry to say I've come across rather a lot of them in my career.

So I would find him guilty as charged.

Sentenced to swopping his pension for mine for life.

Henry Rogers

Whether you are a Labour apologist or a Tory apologist, open or covert, just count your change. And then revisit Guido and replay what the shrink had to say on 'Daily Politics' last week. There are some circumstances in which rational comment is a bit difficult.

TrevorsDen

The point about G3 mobile phone income is a good one. But all it proves is that a significant part of debt reduction is just a windfall, the basic structural reduction is not that much.

But the harsh fact is we already have a growing spending deficit after a long period of alleged growth. Any claims to have room for manoeuvre with the national debt would hardly be enough to cope with that.

Lets face it - there is precious chance of Brown doing anything about burgeoning spending and falling receipts over the next 12 months- far more likely he will continue to spend spend spend to put a fig leaf over his embarrassment. Will the Sterling crisis come before or after the election?

Tony Kenny

Could it be that he really is delusional and cannot recognise reality? Let us hope not.

Athesius the Facilitator

Chris S at the 4.33PM comment gave a full explanation of the debt per capita thing! It was good and very informative but even if the figures are correct Chris S has not mentioned the PPP and PFI debt. He also forgot to mention the undeniable fact that after all the growth that he boasted about - we still have massive debt problems and we now enter a recession. God only knows what the debt will be when we come out of it.

The Conservatives are correct, he needed to save a bit of pocket money, he didn't.

And I have been dripping like a septic pigs bladder about the Journalists not getting tucked into him about his "Brownies". C'mon lads put him on the spot he deserves to be carpeted.

seb

@TrevorsDen

You asked whether the sterling crisis will come before or after the election. I’m sure that Winston Brown wants it 'before'. If the present crisis resolves itself [yes, I'm insane even suggesting this may happen], Winnie will need another crisis that he can appear to tame, thereby wowing dimmer members of the electorate for a second time. If today’s crisis is still raging, Brown can boast that he’s twice the colossus by dealing with two epic disasters at once.

By ensuring that Wendy’s spending plans in the next year and a half are utterly berserk, Brown need of course have no worries that potential kudos for dealing with the sterling crisis might accrue to David Cameron.

EyeSee

Lying is the bedrock of New Labour, as devised by the likes of Mandelson, Blair, Brown and others -Campbell being one of its less subtle operators. For Brown and the other incompetents it is essential of course. But just think, draconian new laws to make us more of their desired police state, the destruction of the UK and British history, ID cards on the way, forcing up fuel and food prices to make us more dependent and with less disposable income, plus mightily increased taxes, Brown is well on the way to the totalitarian state he craves. State banks are crucial of course. Naturally, to get the lowest price you need a useful idiot to drive the share prices down. Step forward Robert Peston who seems able to do much damage and attract no official sanction. Well when the trail is going to lead back to Gordy, that aint gonna happen! What worries me is, what shows up a real terror in the making? To go to the extreme, when should we have seen the Nazis for what they were and stood a chance of nipping it in the bud? The left have through the likes of political correctness, infiltrating and distorting education and the judiciary brought our nation to its knees. A nation of uneducated saps who don't want to understand something when the government will give them answers without requiring effort. A nation ready to be forced into communism (probably in the EU's version) without the brains to resist. Too much? I don't know, but there are a lot of things pointing to rather too pleased socialists during our present problems and they don't seem too surprised either. But then a mugger doesn't, does he?

Tiberius

It's hard to argue against you, Eyesee.

Keith

I just wish you would stop calling them 'Brownies'. They are LIES.

TGF UKIP

Here we go again. More Gordon lies, producing the usual welter of hatred, anger and righteous indignation they always do in the Coffee House.

However, don't you guys think at least some of your ire should be directed towards Dave and Boy George and the rest of the gang for being so limp and lame that Gordon knows by now that he can get away with any lie, no matter how big, absolutely scot free.

Your dozy boys had better shake themselves, Tiberius, Gordon is motivating the Labour Party and the unions and seeking to marginalize your Tories and unless they get their fingers out right quick he's highly likely to succeed.

PMQ's this week and your lad has got to do a right lot better than appearing to be Eton's answer to Dennis Skinner.

David Priest

Mr Brown increasingly reminds me of a ship's captain who, having failed to supervise his crew,allows his boat to hit an iceberg then declares the voyage a great success as a few passengers were rescued.

He has no integrity at all.

Fraser Nelson

Chris S, I accept debt as a share of GDP is lower if you were to strip out Northern Rock (which taxpayers, alas, cannot do). But Brown told us he’d wiped out £100bn. This is what mystifies me: it’s a sum, not a ratio, expressed in sterling. Where does that figure come from?

Toby: I have indeed done a little investigating for you. In May97, net debt was £351bn and the lowest it reached was £304bn in Feb01. At no point was £100bn paid off, even after the 3G selloff.
says that it was once true that Brown had paid off £100bn of debt. And if I say I've paid off half my overdraft, I'd be lying if I meant I had done last year but then maxed out again after a long summer holiday. You'd put in an extra word: I "had" paid off half my overdraft. Brown gives us the impression we are in a good position because debt has been repaid. Alas, not so.

So (tell me if I’m getting you wrong here, Toby) Brown meant to say “we had wiped off £100bn of debt, before we jacked it all up again, which is why we’re in a good position.” But this doesn’t square with the figures.

luke

Brownies used to be a cutting indictment on how GB couldnt be straight.

Now they have become just another form of right-wing spin - as countless posters have pointed out here, the guy isnt lieing, he has a pretty good point!

Lord Elvis of Paisley

Great fun spotting all the dolly clones. The new national past-time.

Alex R

I am guessing that he based this on if the government had maintained debt at the level of GDP that they had inhertied in 1997 rather than temporarily reducing it.

Ann

Well, I don't call them Brownies. I call them barefaced, sickening lies. The man is a barefaced, sickening liar. He's been a barefaced, sickening liar since he entered politics. Probably all his life, but until he entered politics they were a matter for his parents, teachers and possibly the police. Now they are a matter for his employers, namely us.

Ann

TGF's silly rant can be seen for what it is by the fact that he uses the silly label 'Boy George'. Terribly clever when you are in the fifth form, totally infantile in this context.

Eyesee: absolutely!

Fraser Nelson

Alex R, net debt as a share of GDP is stil higher now than what he inherited so that wldnt work...

Chris S

The point about the £100bn is that debt in 2007 (pre-Northern Rock) as a proportion of GDP (the sensible measure) was 8.4% lower than in 1997. GDP is roughly £1400bn and 8.4% of that is £117.6bn. That's where the figure comes from. Because he'd already reduced debt (it's pointless to deny it) the Government was in a stronger position than it would have been to take on the extra debt from the banking crisis.

Fraser Nelson

Chris S, I think you mean he should have said "this time last year, we had reduced net debt to 36.8% of GDP, and it would have been £117bn higher had we kept it to the ratios we inherited".

But I agree, this is most likely what he meant. Yet failure to increase debt by as as much as the economy grew is by no means "wiping out" debt.

If you are right, he would be using three misrepresentation devices to have arrived at this Brownie:-

a) backdating, where he refers to a historical point and presents it as the situation today
b) Northern Rock denial
c) Misrepresenting ratio reduction as a real cash reduction.

Thoughts?

Tiberius

TGF: I'll concede that Cameron's brilliance does not extend to making the wind change direction.

Hence I agree with Tim Montgomerie's view on the Tory tactics on this, as pointed out by James.

alastair harris

if the arithmetic gives the wrong answer he will probably claim that it is mathematics that is wrong, and arrest it under anti-terrorist provisions.

Christian Gowers

I think I found the Brownie.

If Northern Rock, PFI etc are all conveniently left off the balance sheet then the national debt is 7% lower, as a proportion of GDP. And 7% of the GDP is £189Bn.

So, in fact, by using misleading accounting practices he has managed to save us £189Bn!