Will Gordon go?

David Lindsay

The Tories CANNOT win, because elections are now, to call a spade a spade, rigged against them. Not necessarily against any conservative party. Not necessarily against any "free" market "libertarian" party (which would just lose, fair and square). But against the Tories. I do not, of course, write this as any fan of the Tories. It is just the fact of the matter. But the Tory bogeyman is the only thing keeping the Labour Party in existence. If such members as there still are (mostly retired, almost all over 50, in safe seats normally in receipt of councillors' allowances or married to people who are, practically unheard of anywhere else) ever cottoned on that no such bogeyman existed anymore, then that would be the end of the Labour Party. It has never had any concept of itself apart from as a weapon against the Tories. But no such weapon is now necessary. And they will cotton on, sooner rather than later. Labour is as doomed as the Tories, precisely because, without the Tories, there can be a social democratic party, or a left-wing party, or a trade union-based party, or whatever, but there cannot, and there very soon will not, be the Labour Party.

MillPoint

I agree with Matt's point - and was about to make it myself yesterday in a comment but was distracted from doing so! However, what will surely weigh more is whether Brown thinks he can win (i.e. beat Blair's majority). If he is not 100% convinced of that then he will stay his had: The Clunking Fist Clenches!

Dave Bartlett

I don' see why a Labour victory at the next election should be seen as inevitable. Labour 'won' the last general election with 36% of the vote.

Labour are not a popular gov't. They have no ideas or goals for gov't. The parliamentary party is stuffed with unprincipled, undistinguished, yes-men.

Labour are very, very beatable, and I think the Conservatives have an attractive, practical program of reform that can, and will, attract the british electorate.

David Parker

The issue of the EU Constitution/Treaty may well swing the balance against an early election. If Brown makes acceptance of the Treaty a part of Labour's manifesto that would be a gamble which might well backfire. On the other hand merely to offer a referendum, without any promise to abide by the results,would now be treated with the cynicism which it deserves. To go into an election with no promise of any referendum would leave the Tories with an open goal which even David Cameron might not miss. On the other hand to attempt to force the ratification through Parliament immediately prior to an election would cause anger and resentment amongst many would be labour voters. Doubtless Brown is plannning to stage a mock battle at the forthcoming Lisbon meeting, from which he will emerge, Chamberlain style, brandishing a piece of paper promising every imaginable opt out and special British concession. But he has already played that card and the voters are becoming wary of such promises. On the other hand Brown may be deliberately planning to raise the profile of the European issue in the hope of reopening the former divisions over this amongst the Tory old guard. If so he would risk igniting the smouldering euroscepticism of the majority of the population.

Simon

Ed Balls the next Labour leader. I can't understand why he made it to the cabinet. I dont doubt he is very bright but he just cant string a sentence together.