Labour's lead drops by 7 points, what will Brown do now?
Fraser Nelson 8:14pm
It's 7pm and the Channel 4/YouGov poll is out: Lab40, Tory36, LibDem13. Now, 40% isn't bad for Labour - but a lead that’s shrunk from 11 points to 4 emphasises the volatility of polls in an era where party identification and tribal loyalties have never been weaker. We must factor in the post-conference bounce, so the "real" Labour lead is probably 7 points - but less in the marginals.
If Brown goes next week, the bar is high for him: he needs to do better than Blair. A reduced majority will be emasculating, and he risks losing his majority. What a plonker he'd look. But then again - will the Tories be more beatable in a year or two years' time? I suspect not. So he has to make a gamble. And for a hesitant chap like Brown, the decision will be excruciating.
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Tiberius
October 5th, 2007 12:32am Report this commentIf next Tuesday is the deadline, he won't call an election. The consequence of that is an election no earlier than May 2009, and Brown risking the lame duck label.
Giovanni
October 5th, 2007 10:53am Report this commentWhat do you call a Prime Minister with a reduced majority? Mister Prime Minister!
Kenneth Murray
October 5th, 2007 12:45pm Report this commentThe time for calling an election was last weekend; but now the wind has changed Brown is damned if he does (likely reduced majority and resultant loss of authority)and damned if he does not(damaged credibility and resultant loss of authority). If he calls and loses his majority it will be the beginning of what might be a quick end for him and we will have the tragedy of an estimable man undone by chronic caution. And perhaps not just in the theatrical sense. We need a prime minister of conviction, and Mr Cameron has a long way to go to prove that he can be one.
Cogito Ergosum
October 5th, 2007 8:04pm Report this commentIt's not the polls which are volatile, but the margin of error. Labour has gone from 44¢2 to 40¢2. Conservatives from 33¢2 to 36¢2. Not really any movement at all, in the eyes of a mathematician or statistician.
Cogito Ergosum
October 5th, 2007 9:13pm Report this commentTypographical fog in my previous comment at 8:04pm. Let's try again. (P) It's not the polls which are volatile, but the margin of error. (P) Labour has gone from between 42 and 46 to between 38 and 42. Conservatives from between 31 and 35 to between 34 and 38. (P) Not really any movement at all, in the eyes of a mathematician or statistician.
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