How the Tories plan to respond

Gawain

Patience is the only policy. Everything this government touches turns brown. We're all going to be thoroughly fed up with them in six months time.

James

Sensible strategy. They just need to ensure that they counter the Campbell-media spin that the Tories are panicking when the lead drops to single digits.

It is almost in the Tories interest for Brown to succeed in the next couple of weeks as the news story won't move onto the underlying issues and the litany of other Governement failures until the immediate chaos has passed.

Faceless Bureaucrat

Being 'invisible' of late was risky for Cameron and Osborne, but invariably necessary.

Brown should remember what happened to Churchill – ousted by an ungrateful Nation post WWII – before aligning himself with the real ‘Great Man’…

Joe Money

George and David should say we are supporting the rescue package and not Gordon Brown or the Government.

Gordon Brown got us into this mess and he must be held to account in due course.

molesworth 1

I know the Tories' policy of "dignified silence" on the subject has made its reporting difficult, so perhaps the unintelligible profusion of prepositions in the first sentence is merely down to an eagerness on your part to 'get going' on the story.

A Social Democrat

The really interesting thing about that piece on ConHome is that it shows the Tory machine is worried that there is about to be a wave of Tory criticism of Cameron and they are trying to douse it down.

They must be getting very worried in CCHQ.

Pat

The Saviour of the World is heading towards the Mother of all Ambushes.

Bagehot

Aut tace aut loquere meliora silentio.

Mike, Brighton

The msm will get bored of the new narrative, Labour triumphalism and deceit. Just give it time. It's still a long time until the next election.....

Nicholas

I'm not convinced. Whilst I might buy the wisdom of the "lay low for now" strategy I'm not persuaded that when it comes to the attack phase the Tories are lean and hungry enough. Although the shadow cabinet is strong in comparison to Brown's dire rabble of a teachers staff room it is not strong per se. In opposition it needs to be very strong in its own right. I'm also not convinced they have the right PR.

The difference is between holding their own and smashing Labour to pulp. I would prefer the latter. Electoral oblivion Labour deserves and electoral oblivion is what it should get.

I hope you are right about this but New Labour's track record is the successful manipulation of the truth and myth creation. At this stage of their game (rumbled and discredited) they should be polling in single digits. That they are not suggests either that their propaganda works sufficiently to dupe a sizeable proportion of the electorate or that the Tories have no sustainable narrative against them. The fact that Brown is so awful and so widely disliked but that Labour still manage to show an increase should worry the Tories.

geoff

Look this is good insofar as it goes, but its a pretty limited political analysis. There are some further changed "truths" I would like to see Tory strategists recognising.

(1) In the mind of the public Brown is no longer the ditherer they thought he was - that argument is lost to us and we have to adjust.

(2) We can no longer complain about debt. We are backing this plan (if I hear Osborne right this morning) it will dramatically increase government debt. We cannot back the plan and rail against government debt without looking foolish and 2-faced, so that argument is lost to us as well

(3) The money for tax cuts in the next few years is gone. We have to deal with it. So too is the money for spending committments - it will be a competence election and we have to adjust strategy dramatically.

(4) The next election will be about who can drive economic recovery. This is solid ground for the tories but its not been the thrust of our thinking so far and we have to adjust

(5) Crises of whatever sort work for labour and not the tories. We need more gravitas in the shadow cabinet to show a depth of experience.

joeD

Very interesting that CCHQ put this out to ConHome. Its clearly NOT targeted for the wider commentariat - but is aimed to firming up support in the party.

I guess this means they are worried Cameron and Osbnorne are taking or about to take a bashing from supporters saying "where on earth are you?".

I bet you that is how this is interpreted out there in the MSM.

David C

Brown came in with 30 months to a GE.
His first year disaster was his mistakes of the previous year coming home to roost.
He still has ten more years of Labour record in the wings, waiting to make their entrance onto the stage.
The lies, the tricks and double-dealing, the political stunts and wilful mismanagement are still there and will be seen through the lens of a recession.
The last year Labour was approaching oblivion and Brown, together with the media, has stolen back the spotlight; He will not be able to exert the same control as the economy goes toxic. The coming eighteen months will see fear and hatred thrown into the mix and the antics of organisations such as the BBC will seem as relevant to the public as the stories from 'Dallas' or 'Dynasty'.

TGF UKIP

Bang on, as usual, Nicholas. There seems to be more than element of wishful thinking not only in the outline Tory strategy itself but with the glee it is being received by Speccie hacks and Tiberius and other Coffee Housers.

Gordon is a clever and determined, as well as an evil and dishonest, sod and he will have his tanks and propaganda machine well in place not just to resist the Tory "real economy" attacks but to mount his own counter blitzkrieg.

The Pre-Budget Statement is going to give Gordon an opportunity which would not have existed had it not been for the banking crisis. What I mean by that is that had there been no crisis, Darling would have been having to announce truly shocking borrowing figures. Now, though, with all the telephone numbers appearing daily on voters' TV screens, Gordon is not only off the hook but will be able to add quite a few more billions on to seek to ameliorate the effects of his recession. All the borrowing will then be Dave's problem if he should win in 2010 and if it works and 2010 is instead a triumph for Gordon then no problem. He'll just continue to spin and lie about the figures the same as he's able to do now with complete impunity.

Gordon is out to marginalize the Tories and while the briefing to Tim Montgomerie implicitly seeks to excuse the Tory performance, so passive and docile have they been as an opposition over the past few years that Gordon can quite reasonably feel some confidence in that aim.

This government is ten times worse than poor old Major's lot ever were and should have been dead and buried beyond redemption. It is very far from that, though, and as the polls, and not just the most recent ones, show, Gordon and Labour are entirely justified in believing they have everything to fight for.

The Tory response to the Pre-Budget Statement is going to be massively important. Unless they can inflict serious damage on Labour's economic credibility they will run the risk of being marginalized and Gordon being seen as the only show in town.

Frank P

Bagehot

"Aut tace aut loquere meliora silentio"

I suppose it's up to us to decide to whom that imperative is addressed: James Forsyth, the commentariat or the Tory Party?

Fergus Pickering

What is gravitas. Gravitas is boring old farts who got it wrong last time. Jack Straw is gravitas to the nth power.

Spartacus

I'm Gravitas.

Alan Phillips

It doesn't take a genius to work out that Brown has covered a leaking pipe with Gaffer (pun intended) Tape. Yes, it stopped the leak, for now. But this is a repair in need of a solution of longtivity, to do that it needs fixing properly. There is a host of problems laying in wait. This repair will start to break down as the house prices drop and turn the little equity some people have, disappear. Holding onto HIPS and a high stamp duty threshold are only going to add to peoples woes. Employment is going to be dicey too, Corporation tax is too high, and energy prices too will impact on everybodies lives.

Gordon and Co have opened the scoring, the match has a long time to run before a result can be declared.

DC needs to collate a war chest of incompetance. He needs to spell out GB's mistakes and the impact that they have created. But he also needs to present facts and figures to create a genuine alternative, rather than pose as NuLabour MKII

alan phillips

Is it just me, but is there a mandate to spend as a party see's fit at the next election?

AFAICS, If a party sets a series of proposals, the debt thats left can be repaid on terms that the party see's fit.

In Browns world it would equal, we will add 40% to defence, NHS will get 60% increasem etc.

The new debt will be treated as a consoladation loan, as advertised on CHAV TV, repackaging the debt to falsely refinance Britian PLC

Travis Bickle

Isn't Gravitas that bald bloke who used to play for Everton.