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Tuesday, 14th October 2008

Whither the euro

James Forsyth 6:02pm

The financial crisis has partially revived the euro debate. Eurosceptics think that it might bring the whole thing down while those who favour British entry believe that they have found a new argument for it.

To date, it has been the usual suspects making the case on either side. But today Simon Tilford and Philip Whyte of the Centre for European Reform, a pro-European think-tank run by Charles Grant, have a piece in The Guardian which is surprisingly bearish on the euro’s prospect. Here’s the key section:

“The credit crunch should test conclusively whether it is sustainable for countries to share a single currency outside a political union.

The financial markets seem to be sceptical. The difference (or "spread") between the yields on German government bonds and those of many of the other member states have widened steadily over the course of 2008. In Greece's case, the spread over German bunds is now almost a full percentage point, while in Italy it is 0.9 and Spain 0.6. A year ago, the differences were negligible. What these spreads tell us is that investors have more confidence in the ability of the German government to service its debts than the Italian, Spanish or Greek governments. And since they share the same currency, this means investors believe there is a growing risk that the euro area will unravel.”


Do read the whole thing.

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Herbert Thornton

October 14th, 2008 7:37pm Report this comment

If Britain had adopted the Euro, I wonder where Gordon Brown's Britain would now rank on the scale of government ability to service its debts?

Answers on a postcard, please.

Dirty Euro

October 14th, 2008 9:26pm Report this comment

The CER seems pretty euro skeptic to me it seems to be against the CAP which is neede to protect food security.

Ray

October 15th, 2008 7:49am Report this comment

"The credit crunch should test conclusively whether it is sustainable for countries to share a single currency outside a political union."

Therefore, the Europhiles will admit that the single currency has been a failure? Wrong! Instead, they will now press the case even harder for political union.

cuffleyburgers

October 15th, 2008 7:50am Report this comment

There is not and never has been an economic case for Great Britain to join currency union. The political case, briefly advanced by Blair would involve the final and complete surrender of sovereignty to Brussels and Frankfurt, and even Blair balked at that once he realised that he would get nothing in return (unusually for him). The only reason Brown blocked it was presumably partly to stymie what he could see was something Blair wanted but primarily because having got is hands on the trainset he was damned if he would let somebody else have a go.

Dirty Euro - yor ' avin' a larf? "Neede to protect food security" Any fule kno' that the CAP was created at the behest of De Gaulle to save France from total economic and political collapse, and since then has been, in much the same way that the Atlantic Conveyor drives the European weather, the invisible current that drives and underpins the EU project. It has been funding French hubris, chauvinism and smugness since the 1960's and that has coloured the entire project.

It has as much to do with food security as, well, nothing. I suppose the Common fisheries policy is as well? thehn why have fisheries collapsed all round Europe so that the only way the subsidised (by Brussels and therefore by us) Spanish fleet can be kept at sea is by buying fishing rights from dodgy African regimes, and god knows what will happen when they run out...you do realise of course that the CFP was only dreamt up a matter of hours before the UK signing ceremony as a way of allowing the French (at the time) to help themselves to our fisheries, and that that is the reason Norway never joined?

That was why Blair's climb down on the rebate in the great budget debate in 2006 was such a tragedy - a statesman and patriot of the calibre of Thatcher would have been able to use that occasion to really put the boot in, and by hammering the CAP he would have been undermining the whole federalist movement, but he was not up to it and once again the British taxpayer had to foot the bill.

Blair likes to compare himself to Thatcher but in reality he more closely resembles Grocer Heath - a lying sleazy bastard happy to sell his country down the river for the sake of his personal interests.

The Laughing Cavalier

October 15th, 2008 8:53am Report this comment

So, now Brown will complete the destruction of our savings by taking us into the Euro at 1:1 parity.

Ian C

October 15th, 2008 10:22am Report this comment

Well said cuffleyburgers.

I would add that had we been in the Euro Brown's voice would never have been heard on how to get liquidity back to the system. Unilateral action was possible through non-Euro membership.

What none seem to have spotted thus far is that the capital injections to the banks are going to have top be written off against the toxic loans on their books. That will cause some fun at PMQ's when these are announced.

That's when the Paulson plan will look better in the rear view mirror.

Dirty Euro

October 15th, 2008 10:45am Report this comment

cuffleyburgers You do not understand look back and see why the CAP was created. Do you really thin all the nations of Europe would have supported subsidisng farms just to help the French Duhhh. Grow up. You are filled with hatred and irrational arguments about the EU. Why does the USA subsidide itls farms why does Japan,. It is goof security. was to protect our food security after the famines of WW2. You do not understand this issue. If we give up subsidies to farming we will be dependent on other nations like we are for our oil. Grow up.

Faceless Bureaucrat

October 15th, 2008 10:46am Report this comment

So, this recent financial 'cabaret' has driven a very large nail into the coffin of the Euro? Not all bad news then...

Matterheart

October 15th, 2008 12:04pm Report this comment

Oh no! How will we know how much meat there should be in our black puddings?

cuffleyburgers

October 15th, 2008 12:43pm Report this comment

Dirty Euro

You are wrong. it is a metter of documented historical fact.

As a matter of fact, although a firmly believer in the free market, I do believe that some agricultural subsidies are a good idea. But nobody with a brain can argue that CAP is good policy. It is utter madness.

Damaging to us as Europeans and damaging to the rest of the world through the knock on effects of export subsidies etc.

YOU grow up, wake up, smell the coffee, and stop regurgitating tired europhile bilge fed to you by Brussels.

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