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Wednesday, 15th October 2008

Will Brown be busted?

James Forsyth 8:55am

Daniel Finkelstein lays out the most eloquent case I have seen yet for why the current financial crisis will ultimately do for Brown:

“Our view of the Brown decade is like the turkey's view of mankind, utterly destroyed by what has now happened. The stability was a trick of the light, the lengthy period of growth was fuelled by house prices and debt, the low interest rates (of which Brown is still, amazingly, boasting) were an error. The length of the good years is being paid for by the severity of the crisis we now face.

What matters is not whether the bust was avoidable. It is that the preceding boom was illusory.

The idea that boom and bust had been abolished was not a small claim among many. It was the central claim of this Government. It was the boast of boasts - the boast upon which all other boasts were built. And now it has been revealed as totally empty. Not triumph, then. Disaster. Not victory. Total, utter, dreadful defeat.”

The whole article is definitely worth five minutes of your morning.

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Paul B

October 15th, 2008 9:33am Report this comment

Excellent article, like Kavanagh, Finkelstein has Browns measure. That is now The Times & The Sun, can we now start to think the Brown has blown it with Murdoch? On dear oh dear.

DM

October 15th, 2008 9:34am Report this comment

Finkelstein is right.

He could also add how lazy, stupid and irresponsible the media in much of the Westminster village have been in talking up Brown throughoutthis week - his turning point, strong man at the helm etc etc. It's utter rubbish.
The general public have a better idea just how shockingly dreadful Brown has been. Not only because their own economic times are hard, but because they know Brown messed up on both on the economy, and banking regulation.
Now is the time (after this last fortnight of particular alarm) for the Tories and the media to let rip. Brown must not be allowed to get away with it.
David Cameron, if you read this before PMQ, GO FOR IT, no holds barred..wipe that smile off his face.

James Forsyth

October 15th, 2008 9:36am Report this comment

DM, It is Hague v Harman this week

DM again

October 15th, 2008 9:43am Report this comment

Oh no!!
Oh well....Hague might make it amusing.

Mike, Brighton

October 15th, 2008 9:52am Report this comment

"Great economic disaster Gordon", "Gordon's Falklands moment", "Fabulous recession Gordon", "Splendid management of the largest economic crisis since 1929", "Brilliant we should nationalise all the Banks", "Taxes will have to rise and spending will have to be cut, but we are not afraid of difficult choices", "my plan to save us from economic disaster has been adopted globally", "the banks must make it easier for borrowers", "it's only 300Bn of taxpayers money and we should not be afraid of spending more", "we need to make sure the recession does not become a depression"

...see the problem with Gordon's political position?

His hubris propels himself and his party forwards as a pack of lemmings coming upon a large cliff face.

Ian C

October 15th, 2008 10:07am Report this comment

Brown is still in his job because Paulson pulled the plug on Lehmans and for no other reason. An economically more normal autumn would have seen him removed. We (and the Tories who have a tricky landscape to maneouvre through) have to be patient now - and pained - while night follows day, and he is blown away.

I would have thought that the time to attack is when Darling presents his pre-Budget report, not now when it would appear to be overtly trying to get back the attention.

mac

October 15th, 2008 10:39am Report this comment

Mike: "...see the problem with Gordon's political position?" Yes, and your comments are telling.

However, the reality you describe is of absolutely no interest to the likes of Luke and DES who entertain us here, and there are like-minded legions in the country as a whole who are happy to believe the The Guv'ment's spin, however mendacious. For many folk still, just like their Priest or GP of old, Government pronouncements carry olympian credibility; "well, he must be right, he's the Prime Minister isn't he?" "That Tony Blair said he'd end all that Tory sleaze and fibbing, didn't he?"

Despite the evidence of the past 11 years, there really are plenty willing still to believe what Mandelson and Campbell propagandise with brutal, calculated efficiency and they have all too willing accomplices in the state-funded broadcaster.

It's a sad but entirely realistic commentary on the unhealthiness of our democracy that a possible shift in Murdoch's stance is to be welcomed.

Glenrothes is going to be very instructive as a measure of voter gullibility and blind faith.

Ponzi Pete

October 15th, 2008 10:43am Report this comment

Bubble Addicts = Downing Street and the City.

Debt Junkies = The Great British Public.

Now we will have Rehab and Detox.

The buck stops with Brown - h e must be fired for gross negligence and greed. Blair should not be forgotten as he swans around the world as a Master of the Universe.

My blood is boiling.

The bubble was totally obvious to the SANE.

David C

October 15th, 2008 10:48am Report this comment

DM:

I hope Hague is brutally efficient; and if Cameron is wise, he will send him into DPMqs with that instruction.

Bocephus

October 15th, 2008 11:32am Report this comment

Hague hasn't done very well against Harman in the past and his trip to Barclays last week is an open goal for her.

We'll see.

seb

October 15th, 2008 12:27pm Report this comment

@mac
Spot on.

It's come to something, hasn’t it, when an elderly Australian with attitude makes obscenely cynical deals with UK politicians to bamboozle the voters into thinking black is white or that Brown is clever. But Rupe, like the rest of us, will be forced to go with the flow. A deluge of repossessions, bankruptcies and lay-offs will soon be washing over us. Absolutely nothing that our stupid and irresponsible media can say about this government will hide these realities from voters with IQs greater than their waist measurements. Glenrothes will indeed provide some estimate of just how many voters fall into this category.

Talia

October 15th, 2008 12:36pm Report this comment

And the most ridiculous part is he wants to start it all over again, forcing the banks to continue lending as before (now he’s got his mitts on them), re-inflating the bubble. What’s worse is that this time, all taxpayers will be complicit.

TGF UKIP

October 15th, 2008 12:54pm Report this comment

Mr Finkelstein and Coffee Housers may indeed be right about the reality of the matter but what counts is the perception of the broad mass of voters. It is this that Gordon is so assiduously working on with the assistance of his many media friends at the BBC, Mail, Browngraph etc.

Gordon's narrative that he is peddling with much current success is that we are in an economic war visited on the British people by America and rich irresponsible Tory bankers.

Like all good propagandists Gordon knows that the secret is in the repetition of the lie, no matter how big, and the co-opting of sufficient placemen to repeat and keep on repeating it on his behalf.

The Tories are in dangerous waters at present. We know that they cannot compete with Labour on propaganda nor on bare knuckle politics and Gordon is now seeking to marginalize and silence them.

Cameron should have been much more circumspect and qualified in his offer of bipartisan support, as Gordon now has his chance to paint Dave into a corner. As soon as the Tories start getting stuck into Gordon's mess of debt (if they ever do) the reaction is going to be "The Tories promised bipartisan support at this time of national emergency and now they're breaking their promise to play politics. Same old Tories, never to be trusted."

By going along with Brown's spending and borrowing binge for so long the Tories have made it very difficult for themselves as every economic media interview makes plain.

However, they've now got to take the gloves off and hope they can beat Gordon by telling the reality of the matter with the same intensity and repetition as he is telling his lies.

Winston Place

October 15th, 2008 12:55pm Report this comment

How manyshareholders have lost a packet through the governments absolute cock up with, Northern Rock,Bradford & Bingley,RBS,HBOS and especially Lloyds TSB.
Do you think they will vote for Labour at the next election.
Look at Tim Congdon's article in the Times today.
I have been reading his articles for 20 years.He is now with Lombard Street you can read some of his articles online

Wily Trout

October 15th, 2008 3:52pm Report this comment

Simon Jenkins is fairly pithy about the triumphalism of the Labour party in the Guardian today http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/15/credit-crunch-banking

Paul B

October 15th, 2008 5:54pm Report this comment

Oldtimer on another thread also points out the effect this will have on pensions, to paraphrase, nail in coffin & buried (correct me if I'm wrong OT) . Those say within ten years of retirement and not going to be well disposed to at Cat Brown & his bunch.

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