Tories bounce level
James Forsyth 8:37am
This morning’s polls will be causing consternation in Downing Street. ICM in The Guardian finds the two parties level on 38 points and Populus for The Times has Labour ahead 39 to 36.
If Labour went for an election now it is far from certain that Gordon Brown would increase his majority. To go to the country looking for a mandate and come back with fewer seats than Tony Blair achieved in his worst electoral performance would leave Brown a wounded PM. As Peter Riddell writes in The Times, “Gordon Brown needs an exit strategy, fast.”
The debate in Westminster is about how much permanent damage would be done to Brown by pulling back now. Certainly, David Cameron would be able to claim a triumph and the Tories could ridicule Brown as a bottler. So the Prime Minister desperately needs a face-saving way out. One possibility suggested to me is that Brown might rule out an election but at the same time endorse fixed term parliaments hoping that the positive coverage for this constitutional innovation would lessen the impact of the retreat.
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KM
October 5th, 2007 9:40am Report this commentWhat is this issue with Brown having to increase his majority? A win is a win.
Indica4ever
October 5th, 2007 9:52am Report this commentVery true, but he needs a convincing win, i.e. a working majority to show who's in charge. Also to finally expunge the ghost of Blair
antifrank
October 5th, 2007 9:59am Report this commentI agree with KM - a win is a win. Having thought it foolish to consider an Autumn election on the grounds of why take an avoidable risk, Gordon Brown has now backed himself into a corner. For substantially the same reasons as Matthew Norman gives in the Independent today, I believe that Gordon Brown should still hold an election. One point where I part from most other commentators is that I do not rule out a Tory victory at any election. While I regard the odds as no better than 1 in 5 of an absolute majority for the Tories, the polls are very volatile, and the public has not yet made up its mind about either David Cameron or Gordon Brown. It could do so very quickly about either of them, and in particular if Gordon Brown received the thumbs-down during an election campaign, David Cameron could yet be strolling into Downing Street. As it happens, I do not believe that either David Cameron or the Tories are ready for Government yet, and that it would be to their and our long-term disadvantage were they to take office (they still need to resolve their thinking on the EU in particular). I am still deciding who I am going to vote for if asked to do so in November.
NickL
October 5th, 2007 10:47am Report this commentAsk Mr Major if "a win is a win"! Why sacrifice a large working majority of 66 for the risk of one that leaves government legislation vulnerable to every Labour backbench revolt?
Lee Jakeman
October 5th, 2007 10:47am Report this commentThe West Lothian question may bore some people to death, but if the Tory party proposed to replace the British Union with a British Federation, consisting of separate national parliaments for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, plus a British Federal parliament, all with clearly defined responsibilities, David Cameron would be in Downing Street with an absolute majority.
Praguetory
October 5th, 2007 11:12am Report this commentYour final idea re fixed terms sounds plausible. I love the way that Labour abuse the system (loans for lordships/dangling an election) and then knee-jerk crap measures to fix the mess they made (state funding of political parties/whatever they come up with to paper over the current mess). Whatever did we do to deserve this rabble?
Mike
October 5th, 2007 11:17am Report this commentYes to all the above but..there is a strong narrative for going now.. - Looks decisive, an election to gain a mandate not on Browns record - The Tories are asking for it - Stops the full effect of the Ashcroft money on the key marginals - Browns personal ratings are much higher that Camerons - The next election is therefore 2012 in the olympics afterglow. Taking a risk now secures Labour 10 years in power Is it compelling enough to take the risk?
Derek L. Piper
October 5th, 2007 5:12pm Report this comment"No" to a good amount of the above. AntiFrank - The Tories have resolved their 'EU thinking'. The policy is clearly to remain in the EU, but to support a referendum, and to stop the encroachment of a Brussels regulatory superstate. And a fixed-term parliament in my view is a road towards a presidential system. Do you really want to endure a two-year election campaign like we do in the US? Fixed terms would also encourage weak coalitions after close elections, with the LD's sandal brigade as kingmakers. Unless one is a LibDem ppc, where's the prudence in throwing the power of Parliament to them, and other even more narrow-interest parties? As far as the Cons "not being ready for government", maybe the point is that they are ready to roll bank the authoritarian nanny government that NuLab has imposed over their ten years in power. The main thing Gordon seems to be ready for is to hang onto to power at all costs.
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