More grim poll news for Brown
James Forsyth 6:24pm
Gordon’s decision just got trickier. The latest figures from The Guardian / ICM poll show that 48% of voters want a November poll compared to 43% who don’t. However, 58% of Labour supporters don’t want Gordon to go early.
Tory backers are 17% more certain to vote than their Labour counterparts the poll reveals and the people who would be missing from the electoral roll come November are from groups that traditionally support Labour more strongly than the Conservatives. So if Brown goes early there’s a real risk he could end up with a wafer-thin majority or even a hung parliament. But backing down now is not going to be easy with expectations of a poll having been raised so high.
Brown’s personal ratings are bound to take a tumble if he chickens out now. He’ll open himself up to taunts about how he is too scared to find out if he has a mandate or not. It is hardly the ideal circumstances in which to break a manifesto commitment to holding a referendum on the EU Constitution.
By contrast, the good news keeps coming for David Cameron. The conference season has seen 23% of voters raise their opinion of him.
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Toby Belch
October 5th, 2007 8:03pm Report this commentBig poll of the marginals coming Sunday http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/10/it-all-hangs-on.html
David Boothroyd
October 5th, 2007 11:19pm Report this commentThere's no way a 2005 manifesto could ever give any pledge about a treaty which was not signed until 2007.
John Whitworth
October 5th, 2007 11:27pm Report this commentBut that means, David, that any manifesto pledge about any treaty not already signed would have to be a non-pledge. But then that seems to go for all the Labour manifesto pledges, doesn't it. They are pledges until you want to unpledge them. Wasn't it Ian Duncan Smith who said 'You can't believe a word they say!' Of course you can't
Alex, London
October 6th, 2007 9:30am Report this commentIf the partisan BBC decided to give more airtime to the Conservative Conference, the polls would be more favourable to the Tories.
Oscar Miller
October 6th, 2007 10:00am Report this commentIt's been somewhat overlooked that the reason Brown was keen to have a Labour manifesto commitment to a referendum on the EU constitution was that he was confident it would gravely damage Blair - and possibly force him to stand down. Absolutely no-one could have foreseen that the French and Dutch would save Blair's skin when the Labour commitment was made, leaving Brown to face the consequences. So once again Brown's tactics have boomeranged. Old boomerang Brown - no plot that doesn't backfire.
John Austin
October 6th, 2007 10:10am Report this commentWhat's Gordon doing in the photo to this piece? Squeezing spots?
John Austin
October 6th, 2007 10:16am Report this commentIt doesn't really matter whether they said it in the 2005 manifesto or not, everyone believes they said it.
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