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Wednesday, 15th October 2008

Brown's new plan to bring down the debt

Fraser Nelson 7:36pm

I am hearing that Brown is to make up his own debt measurement, after losing a battle to have Northern Rock struck from the official national debt. It will be used in the pre budget report, exclude Northern Rock, and would show the figure Harman gave in PMQs today, national debt falling from 43 percent to 37 percent. It sounds implausible; it is one thing to fiddle your own golden rule, another to produce a fake national debt series so you can get around an ONS ruling. So I am treating this rumour with suspicion. I mean, he couldn't. Could he?

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mitch

October 15th, 2008 8:04pm Report this comment

Well he has lied his head off for years so why would you find this surprising.
If he is going to make stuff up then I will do the same with my income tax invent a few extra "off balance sheet" kids.

greg

October 15th, 2008 8:31pm Report this comment

Personally I think a measure of debt that excludes the debt arising from the purchase of assets which in the long-term will be returned to private ownership is pretty reasonable.

The counter-factual is do you want to increase taxes or cut spending to bring down debt given it is only temporarily high.

But i do realise everyone on this site at least disagrees with that.

John Miller

October 15th, 2008 8:41pm Report this comment

Let me answer your question with a bit of your own reporting - didn't Harman lie to Parliament today? Did she not delibrately mislead the House?

And what will happen to her for so doing?

What will happen to Brown for telling yet more lies?

You never know, he may decide to make it 28%...

alastair

October 15th, 2008 8:47pm Report this comment

Based on past performance with the "Brownies"? Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Dr Blue

October 15th, 2008 8:48pm Report this comment

It's another perfect Brownie.

RobertD

October 15th, 2008 9:06pm Report this comment

If he thinks he can get away with it he will. Given that most MP's and almost all of the media is economically illiterate and can't add up their shopping lists he probably will give it a go.

TGF UKIP

October 15th, 2008 9:30pm Report this comment

Why on earth shouldn't he? Who's going to challenge him? Based on past performance, certainly not your mates, Fraser.

Tiberius

October 15th, 2008 9:33pm Report this comment

'Course he can, Fraser, as he's already on the way to making Joseph Goebbels look like Enid Blyton.

Mike, Brighton

October 15th, 2008 9:39pm Report this comment

Perhaps he will also redefine inflation as 0% and unemployment as less than 1,000 people

AndyLeeds

October 15th, 2008 10:24pm Report this comment

Debt is debt. It ought to be counted as such.

Brown is such a lying scum bag - just like Blair is/was - are we surprised ? No we are not.

Brown said he would end 'Boom and Bust'. We now have the biggest Bust in modern history. Welcome to The Brown Bust. Enjoy !!!

TrevorsDen

October 15th, 2008 10:39pm Report this comment

Quite a chunk of Browns Debt repayment came from the £20 billion (some sources say it was much more) windfall from the G3 mobile phone auctions. So the repayments are not structural.

The other debt problem is the difference its income and revenue. If bank profits and bonuses are down this is going to have a big effect on revenues.

Dirty Euro:

October 15th, 2008 11:07pm Report this comment

The people who built up the debts in the banks should be arrested and face criminal charges. The PM and tories and lib dems should arrest these fraudsters. Where is the medai anger at these people. Thye made a stack load of cash and wjho knows what crooked stuff they did.

Dirty Euro

October 15th, 2008 11:19pm Report this comment

It is the bankers you guys should be turning your hatered on they have stolen stackloads of cash of us and it is the government that has to pick up the bill, and come up with a fix plan. Redwood and his ilk need to ask questions of the banks not the government. '

Hysteria

October 15th, 2008 11:38pm Report this comment

greg - I am no economist but what you propose makes no sense - define "long term"......

I have a mortgage which in 15 years will be paid up. In declaring my current household debt level I show that as a negative - because that is driving my current account cashflow. (in UK terms will drive tax and spend levels)

By all means show the value of the asset in the books but it is not liquid, so should be treated seperately in my view.

@TGF - yup - little evidence that team DC a) understands this or b) has any desire to engage on the topic

Ken

October 16th, 2008 8:29am Report this comment

Market recovery? Not likely until market fears about the creditworthiness of national governments are placated. So Brown is still bust.

Rob C, Devon

October 16th, 2008 8:48am Report this comment

"Lies, damn lies and statistics" - a phrase my Granddad always used when referring to politicians. When the figures reveal their inadequacies, they simply change the measure. This government have already done it with inflation and unemployment, so why not debt?

If they really want to get control, they need to limit spending, cut base rates another 0.5% and if necessary legislate on the percentage anyone can borrow against assets. 0% borrowing on credit cards etc should be banned and the higher APR's capped against base rates - without the inflated interest rates, the card companies will need to be more careful to whom they lend!

Roy Simpson

October 16th, 2008 9:23am Report this comment

Whilst interviewing the French Foreign Minister, Christine Lagarde, on Newsnight yesterday, Emily Maitlis referred to "Gordon Brown's Plan". Before replying to the specific question the minister said... "Allow me to disagree with that. The whole principle was orchestrated and certainly directed by the European Presidency and it applied across the board". She went on to say that "...the G4 met in Paris on 4th October. Those four (i.e. Sarkozy, Berlasconi, Merkel and Brown), together laid out the ground which everthing resulted from..."

Is there no limit to the amount of lies, subterfuge and deceit that our delusional Prime Minister is prepared to use?

mac

October 16th, 2008 10:12am Report this comment

"I mean, he couldn't. Could he?"

Of course. He does.

`When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less.'

`The question is,' said Alice, `whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

`The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, `which is to be master - - that's all.'

Lewis Carroll ("Through the Looking Glass", Ch 6).

Peter C London

October 16th, 2008 10:14am Report this comment

By the way, does anyone know what the 'off balance sheet' liabilities under PFI were in May 1997 and the latest available figures?

David C

October 16th, 2008 10:30am Report this comment

Mac:
Brown has form.
His trick for avoiding a referendum on the EU Constitution was simply redefine the Lisbon Treaty as 'Not the Constitution' despite the fact that everybody else in the EU, including the architects, had said that the Treaty was the Constitution reborn!

Robert D is right. A quick shuffle with a few hard-to-follow figures is not implausible at all.

TGF UKIP

October 16th, 2008 10:54am Report this comment

Stand by as well for Gordon shooting the fox that should have been the Tories but wasn't - ie cutting public spending and taxes. "It is right that when hard working British families are feeling the pressure of the global economic slowdown, Government should also tighten its belt."

PS that personification of Cameron Central Office, Maples, actually said on the World at One yesterday that the public sector job cuts on the horizon should be postponed "at this time of rising unemployment." ie It's all right for the private sector to cut costs and shed jobs but not for the public sector. Doen't it make you proud of your friends, Fraser?

Mike, Brighton

October 16th, 2008 11:04am Report this comment

TGF UKIP : I agree with much of what you say but...
It just isn't in Brown's DNA to be "cutting public spending and taxes", he'd argue in his perverse logic that it is time to increase the level of public spending in times of economic need!
I'm happy to stand corrected by events but I doubt Brown would ever cut taxes and spending.
PS Agree with you on Maples.

Mike, Brighton

October 16th, 2008 11:07am Report this comment

Greg - debt is debt. If I borrow £10 grand for a new car and intend to reapy it over three years, I am on month one in debt to the tune of £10 grand + interest.
I note your use of "temporarily high" debt. Do you count as temporary the whole Labour term?

William Norton

October 16th, 2008 12:29pm Report this comment

Quite plausible. They'd have two figures called something like Core Debt (i.e. excluding "exceptional" debt taken on to handle the crash, and which is alleged to provide a truer guide to the underlying long-term debt position) and Gross Debt (i.e. the actual debt). One will be in the front of the document and the other will be buried away at the back. Guess which will be which. They'd probably justify it by reference to the old RPI and RPI-X figures.

Travis Bickle

October 16th, 2008 1:12pm Report this comment

The irony is that people don't care a jot whether it's 37% 43% 50% or whatever. They only care about their own immediate financial situation, and really important stuff like the x-factor, strictly come dancing and whether Jamie swears too 'king much in a cookery program.

Since we are likely to be neck deep in the cack over next 2 years let the government lie all the they like if it makes them feel better... unless household finances are much improved on today they're toast.(even if Cameron/Osborne don't say a dickie bird for 18 months)

greg

October 16th, 2008 1:17pm Report this comment

Mike, not all debt is equal.

Some debt is held alongside assets (like a nationalised bank) and will be re-payed by sale of the asset.

Other debts will need to be met by future tax returns.

I think it is emminently sensible to seperate the two.

What matters with national debt is the credibility of a long-term plan to reduce it. The fact that some of our debt can be met through major privatisations is very important.

People in this thread seem to treat it as irrelevant. I genuinley cant work out if thats a politically motivated issue or not.

greyspender

October 16th, 2008 2:09pm Report this comment

Roy Simpson,
I hope that others enjoyed as much as we did Christine Lagarde's elegant put down of the ghastly Emily Maitlis who
appears to be a fully signed up
member of Brown Broadcasting
Corp.
Allez France! Will others please
follow her example and stop this
'Gordon is the new Messiah'
nonsense?

Don

October 16th, 2008 3:46pm Report this comment

DES as you insist on repeating the same post so will I.Slight problem with your idea to jail the bankers DES. They have done nothing illegal, they have done exactly what Gordon's light touch regulation allowed them to do. So are you in fact saying that the light touch regulation was tantamount to criminality? If so Brown should be the first in court, or does that not fit the ZanuLabour "narrative" of fat cat bankers. By the way still no response about short seller in chief Myners getting his finger in the Labour (taxpayer) pie.

TGF UKIP

October 16th, 2008 6:48pm Report this comment

Mike, Brighton - neither was it in Nixon's DNA to go to China.

Spending cuts would have brought the wrath of the party down around Blair's ears, but other than a few of the real headbangers like Woodley, they'll accept cuts from Gordon like lambs.

Unless, of course, Dave and Boy George get their fingers out and beat him to it, Gordon's biggest and best reason for doing it would be the sheer pleasure of shooting their fox and seeing the embarrassment that would cause them with the non SocDem portion of their party.

Indeed I'm not too sure who would get most pleasure from it - Gordon, Heffer or myself.

Evelyn Guzman

October 16th, 2008 10:17pm Report this comment

How would Brown be able to fake the debt measurement? Wouldn't a regulatory body be able to find out the truth? In this debt global crisis though, it would be impossible to have the national debt go down by 6%. No wonder you're being suspicious about this.

Evelyn Guzman
http://www.debtchallenges.com (If you want to visit, just click but if it doesn’t work, copy and paste it onto your browser.)

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