How much does this hurt Brown?
James Forsyth 6:39pm
A relaxed, confident looking David Cameron has just been on the BBC hitting all the right notes about Gordon Brown’s climb-down over the election date. For Brown, the next few weeks will be excruciating. He is being denounced as weak by all and sundry while his reputation for straight-talking is in tatters. Never again will his opponents cower in front of him.
The $64,000 question is whether this error by Brown will actually weigh on the minds of voters as they go to the polls in 2009. Labour MPs have been fanning out across the TV studios this afternoon to dismiss this as a mere Westminster story claiming that it will all be forgotten by then. But even if this is the case the last few weeks have been very helpful to Cameron. The threat of the election united the Tories and meant that the leadership could distil the work of the policy groups with a minimal amount of fuss. Also, the Conservatives have fallen back in love with Cameron who has established a new level of authority in both the party and the country.
Prime Minister’s question time this Wednesday will be an ordeal for Brown. The thin-skinned Brown will have to keep his temper in check as he is goaded by his opponents. Any display of anger would reinforce the damage that has been done.
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George Steiner
October 6th, 2007 7:13pm Report this commentIn the case of British Conservatives wishfull thinking has replaced realism. Brown is leading a majority govenment, has two years to go in his mandate. If two weeks is an eternity in politics, two years is, well, a very long time. His oponent is a political pigmy. And just because of a short speech, a small bounce in the polls Conservative vitory is in sight. Eh fellows? The polls will go down for Cameron faster than you can say Londonistan.
Simon Brock
October 6th, 2007 7:14pm Report this commentThis is a really good news for Cameron. He has time to put together some real policies managed by a real team. When is he going to realise that Labour won by modernising despite the party members rather than bringing out old policies again.
Craig Strachan
October 6th, 2007 7:14pm Report this commentI think this will have legs beyond Christmas, as it tends to bolster the counter-narrative about Brown: that he is neurotic, manipulative and strangely indecisive. Who was it that called him "psychologically flawed" again?
Craig Dearden-Phillips
October 6th, 2007 7:24pm Report this commentUnusually Brown has made a tactical slip. By allowing speculation to build, the Tories had a barnstorming conference and have a new credibility about them. The Brown Bounce is already petering into a Bobble. Can Cameron win in 2009? Yes if 2008 needs to be a bad year for Labour in government AND the Conservatives manage to find a simple single message (not three) about the change they represent. Cameron cannot shape wider events but he can now look like a Prime Minister in waiting.
Graham
October 6th, 2007 7:37pm Report this comment"The $64,000 question is whether this error by Brown will actually weigh on the minds of voters as they go to the polls in 2009"
I disagree. This is to ask the wrong question--few will remember this episode in 2009. The more pertinent question is this--how does this change the immediate political dynamic, including how we measure the performance of the key protagonists. EG how will this episode shape how we measure Brown's performance on Monday, and then at PMQs on Wednesday? Will be talking about Brown making a series of misjudgments (i.e. his trip to Basra, his election dithering and perhaps poor parliamentary performances)? That is to say, the episode could help change the political mood much more immediately--and this could, in turn and through time, change how voters perceive the political parties over the next couple of years.
Dave Bartlett
October 6th, 2007 8:00pm Report this commentIf Brown's poll numbers don't improve, do Labour have he nerve to depose him?
David Clucas
October 6th, 2007 8:21pm Report this commentWhy is it that, according to some Labour MP's that this will be forgotten about quickly, when, according these same Labour MP's, the public can remember 'Black Wednesday' some 15 years ago with, apparently, total recall? The public's memory may well be brief, but I bet the politician's isn't!
Oscar Miller
October 6th, 2007 10:40pm Report this commentAgree with David Clucas - the memory of Labour politicians is selective indeed. The political landscape has changed dramatically this week and it isn't going to revert to how it was before. It isn't a blip - it's the emergence of truths that have been buried by a hugely partisan press - that Brown is not the man he's cracked up to be - that Team Cameron (and the unsung work of 10 years in the political wilderness) have transformed the conservative party which is now fit and ready for government. These facts will emerge more and more clearly in the weeks and months to come.
Richard Jacobs
October 8th, 2007 11:39am Report this commentSurely the Labour Party will soon (if not already) realise that Brown is not the future and that there must be some fresh faces and ideas to combat the opposition parties who now seem to have caught the mood of the country and especially England. This will not go away and the unpopular PM will face attack on all sides. I do not expect him to fight the next election.
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