Polls show that the Tories might have won an autumn election
James Forsyth 6:55pm
The details of the YouGov / Sunday Times poll show just how dangerous a November election would have been for Labour. The Tories are ahead 41 to 38, but amongst those certain to vote their lead rises to 45-36: very close to the ten point advantage they need for a working majority. The Tories also lead by significant margins—10 and 20 points, respectively—on what would have been the two most important issues for voters in a November election, crime and immigration. While the Tories also hold a very narrow lead on who would be most likely to raise people’s standard of living.
There are good numbers in the poll for Brown. He leads Cameron 40 to 17% on strength, 39 to 26% on trustworthiness and 27 to 6% on being good in a crisis. Yet, one has to imagine that these numbers will take a hit following the events of yesterday.
Interestingly, 26% of voters think less of Brown after his visit to Iraq and 60% agree that the military covenant has been broken. Tomorrow’s statement on Iraq will be extremely tricky for Brown. In the current atmosphere, any big announcement risks being seen as an attempt to distract attention away from this whole fiasco.
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RF
October 7th, 2007 9:17pm Report this commentYou guys won't be so cocky come 2009 when you get clunked. This is just a temporary setback that will be forgotten by Christmas
Tiberius
October 7th, 2007 10:32pm Report this commentI'm surprised to see Robert Fisk reading these blogs!
Disraeli's Ghost
October 7th, 2007 11:26pm Report this commentTiberius, I doubt that Fisk is particularly fond of Mr. Brown. Tony Benn maybe, but Gordon no.
Alex, London
October 8th, 2007 9:28am Report this commentRF - unfortunatley for Labour, this won't be forgotten, as the Tories / Lib Dems / Media et al. will keep on reminding them/you. Though an election in November would most likely have resulted in a hung Parliament (with either Lab or Con as the largest party), an election in 2009 will ensure that the Conservatives will win with an overall majority.
David Lindsay
October 8th, 2007 9:31am Report this commentCan you not add up, or something? These figures are not remotely enough to deliver a Tory victory, which is now psephologically impossible.
Tiberius
October 8th, 2007 11:30am Report this commentDL: you keep saying this, but a 12 point lead (or even a little less)would give the Tories a majority. That seemed politically impossible two weeks ago, but the pre-Brown PM polls, the May local elections, and this weekend's numbers (Tories over 40% in some)along with Brown's misjudgements make that now a distinct possibility. Why else would Brown have ducked the chance to prolong his term in office?
Jenny, London
October 8th, 2007 11:32am Report this commentBrown himself thought that a Tory victory may have been 'psephologically' (big word!) possible; or in all probability, 'win' with the biggest party in a hung parliament. This is why he bottled it. Now he has to deal with the fact that he will lose the next election outright.
David Lindsay
October 8th, 2007 12:12pm Report this commentA 12-point lead, Tiberius? Get real! As for the local elections, they were proof that people will vote for Tories so long as they are not David Cameron, and do not like David Cameron. In fact, Tory councillors are much more like Gordon Brown: that bit older, socially conservative, impeccably middle-class but not posh, and all in favour of lavish public spending so long as it is on their own or their client-voters' pet projects. Where Parliament is concerned, Cameron has turned safe seats into knife-edge marginals, and respectable second places into distant thirds, on one memorable occasion only slightly ahead of the BNP. Come the General Election, the Tories will at best simply pile up enormous numbers of votes in a few dozen seats, as Labour used to do with the miners. And where are the miners now?
Alex, London
October 8th, 2007 12:33pm Report this commentDL - give up please, don't embarrass yourself. You're just digging yourself into a bigger 'psephological' hole.
Praguetory
October 9th, 2007 7:36am Report this commentDL - You are in cloud-cuckoo land. Please stop polluting threads.
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