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Friday, 17th October 2008

Which Obama will we get if he is elected?

James Forsyth 5:45pm

No conservative columnist has better understood Obama than David Brooks and his column today on Obama sums up both Obama’s strengths and his weaknesses quite brilliantly. Here’s how he concludes:

“He doesn’t have F.D.R.’s joyful nature or Reagan’s happy outlook, but he is analytical. That’s why this William Ayers business doesn’t stick. He may be liberal, but he is never wild. His family is bourgeois. His instinct is to flee the revolutionary gesture in favor of the six-point plan.

This was not evident back in the “fierce urgency of now” days, but it is now. And it is easy to sketch out a scenario in which he could be a great president. He would be untroubled by self-destructive demons or indiscipline. With that cool manner, he would see reality unfiltered. He could gather — already has gathered — some of the smartest minds in public policy, and, untroubled by intellectual insecurity, he could give them free rein. Though he is young, it is easy to imagine him at the cabinet table, leading a subtle discussion of some long-term problem.

Of course, it’s also easy to imagine a scenario in which he is not an island of rationality in a sea of tumult, but simply an island. New presidents are often amazed by how much they are disobeyed, by how often passive-aggressiveness frustrates their plans.

It could be that Obama will be an observer, not a leader. Rather than throwing himself passionately into his causes, he will stand back. Congressional leaders, put off by his supposed intellectual superiority, will just go their own way. Lost in his own nuance, he will be passive and ineffectual. Lack of passion will produce lack of courage. The Obama greatness will give way to the Obama anti-climax.”


Obama won’t be a mediocre president. He will be either a Carteresque disaster or an FDR-style triumph.

Blogs: Martin Bright | Susan Hill | Alex Massie | Melanie Phillips | Faith Based | Cappuccino Culture

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mitch

October 17th, 2008 6:27pm Report this comment

Not the one they think they will get! he will have all those favours to repay for getting him there.
So more war and death in the east and more tax at home.
Oh and the lies don't forget the lies and in four years people will be saying about him what they say about bush just for slightly different reasons.

Frank P

October 17th, 2008 7:49pm Report this comment

James you are either on the wrong side of the culture war, or you simply don't understand the nature of the Left's game plan. Read and watch what his mentors and backers were saying before their baleful movement to use him as a front for the assault on the White House was unearthed. Just as leopards do not change their spots, neither do political lepers shed the scars of their affliction. They may move into mansions and occupy the halls of academe, but their intentions never change. Theirs is the committed politics of the ugly and the envious. Either Obama is too stupid to understand that he is being used, or he is allowing himself to be used. Either way he is unfit to hold the office to which he aspires. Anyway, it is clear that the second of those alternative applies. Whether it's for money and power, or ideology on his part remains to be be seen.

If David Brooks's description of Obama's lack of emotional responses is correct, then Obama is exaclty the automaton that the likes of Ayers and Dohrn would get their hooks into. A very useful idiot indeed, in fact if he makes it to the White House the daddy of all useful idiots.

Ian C

October 18th, 2008 10:07am Report this comment

It has been extremely easy for a natural sceptc, such as I, to be deeply suspicious of Obama and his motives. Melanie, in particular has highlighted why this might/could/should be so.

In watching the Newsnight version of the last debate both men came across alot better than previously. To me the points McCain made was the narrative I understood, even though he does it far from fluently. I suspect that this is far more the reason he is behind - because his coherence level is similar to George W's, and surely we cannot have another 4 years of that! But McCain seemed to lose this election (if he does) just when he was establishing a lead. Repeat after me McCain "do you want to spend your money or do you want Obama to do it for you?" Repeat, over and over again for 18 days.

But what surprised me most was how little Obama seemed to appreciate what he was saying - that he had a better way through big government and a form of tax 'cuts' that are as illusory as the boom of the past few years have been. He seemed far from in command of his agenda and only got away with it because McCain could not express himself as he needed to. That does not augur well.

Finally, if you look at Gallup you will see that those 'likely to vote (traditional method)' Obama is only 3% ahead. This is on the edge of margins for error and well within likely 'racial' voters range.

THX1138

October 18th, 2008 11:45am Report this comment

Ian C Nate Silver pulls apart the Drudge spin on that Gallup Poll

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1016.html

I can't believe that you want race to be an issue.

I have read so many posts on this blog that race isn't an issue. Now as we get close many commenters here seem to have fingers cross that it will sway enough voters to make a difference. Stop it

Ian C

October 18th, 2008 1:08pm Report this comment

It's not that I want race to be an issue. It is just that there are bound to be some who say they'll vote Obama who won't because of race. This could be many more than we think and could be the difference if the real lead is this sort of thin.

The race is likely to narrow from here and if it ends in an under 5% lead it could go either way on the day, although it is not looking likley now.

THX1138

October 18th, 2008 1:58pm Report this comment

Ian I wasn't having a go at you personally I worry about race in this election too - Sorry.

I tried to make a post earlier that used the n word even heavily stared out It didn't make the cut.

Maybe Pete will let me link to it?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-western-pennsylvania.html

I think the post on 538 encapsulates why Obama will win and why race doesn't matter in this economy, racism is officially a luxury even though I'm still worried.

BTW Colin Powell is doing a big interview tomorrow, I bet he's going to endorse Obama, now that will be nasty for McCain.

David Lindsay

October 18th, 2008 3:18pm Report this comment

Obama stands with the Teamsters and other unions on the sending of American jobs to un-unionised, child-exploiting sweatshops in Asia and Latin America.

He stands with the black, Irish and Scots-Irish working classes on sending their sons off to be harvested in pointless, unwinnable wars on behalf of others in American society who do not pull their weight militarily.

And the core of his core, which he will have to keep happy in order to secure a second term, is not only the morally conservative mainstay of things like the Alliance for Marriage, but is also made up of the people most opposed to illegal and even much legal immigration, whose views on the status of English make them the South Welsh of America.

Vote Obama.

Elf

October 18th, 2008 4:00pm Report this comment

FDR style triumph. And he IS going to be president.

David

October 18th, 2008 5:48pm Report this comment

People like Frank, and of course Melanie, are I reckon going to be the most disappointed that their apocalyptic visions of an Obama presidency don't come to pass.

Much like the left in the 80s, they desperately want to live in some form of evil dictatorship to give their views validity and feel that they are 'fighting back'.

TGF UKIP

October 19th, 2008 1:25pm Report this comment

It's not just the Ayers thing, it's the Jeremiah Wright thing, it's the joint fundraising with palestinian militants thing, it's the radical community organizer thing, it's the ACORN blackmailing of banks thing.

Coffee Housers need not be as soft minded as many of the clowns in the shadow cabintet or on the Tory backbenches who are besotted with Obama. This guy really is a hard left radical and what many times compounds his danger to America and the West is that, as President, he will have full rein with Reid and Pelosi to back him up, a large House majority and a veto beating majority in the Senate.

Start praying folks!

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