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Friday, 17th October 2008

High noon on Wednesday is Cameron's next chance to change the narrative

James Forsyth 8:13pm

PMQs is frequently derided as something that is only of interest to the Westminster Village. That may be true but it helps frame the way that political reporters and commentators see the battle between the parties and plays a crucial role in determining the mood of the parliamentary parties. 

This week’s clash will be one of the most important in a while. The consensus in Westminster is that Cameron’s speech today was too small for the moment—though, it is worth noting that the Standard’s write up is positive and the odd conversation about it that I’ve overheard on the train to the north that I’m on has been fairly warm about it—and if Brown is perceived to school Cameron at PMQs then the Brown comeback narrative will gain further momentum. However if Cameron manages to land some blows on Brown in what will be their first full-blooded encounter since the financial crisis started, the story-line could change.

Brown’s apparent revival and the reorganisation of the Labour’s whips office has ensured that the Labour benches are far louder than they have been for a while. Cameron needs to quiet them down on Wednesday if he is going to burst Brown’s bubble.

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luke

October 17th, 2008 8:39pm Report this comment

The standard isnt quite the impartial obeserver of all things tory these days though, is it?

Short the UK

October 17th, 2008 9:08pm Report this comment

Britain Goes Bust

~Government Debt = £2 trillion.
~Consumer Debt = £1.3 trillion.

~Banks are bust and will probably need more capital.

~Tax revenue will collapse.

~Long Dated Gilt, rates rise to attract risk averse money. Compounded by huge issuance.

~Insurance company like L&G, Pru, Aviva, goes under; huge liabilities due to stock and bond market collapse.

~Due to stock market collapse FTSE 100 companies can't fund pension deficits, especially with collapsing economy sapping profits.

~Multi-nationals flee UK domicile due to increasing tax burden.

~Unemployment rockets.

~City is bust - talent moves East.

~Banks become politicised and turn economy into a Zombie.

~Pound collapses.

~Country goes bust.

Pete

October 17th, 2008 9:44pm Report this comment

Cameron has to re-establish his authority as his response to this crisis has been pretty weak.

Anything less than a gloves off convincing win and his future as leader is up for discussion.

mitch

October 17th, 2008 9:48pm Report this comment

Its such an open goal that only someone who wanted to fail could miss it.

Graeme

October 17th, 2008 10:00pm Report this comment

pathetic

David

October 17th, 2008 10:35pm Report this comment

"... and his future as leader is up for discussion."

By whom, exactly? I admit Cameron probably could have gone at Brown at bit stronger at the start of all this, but talk like that is honestly crazy.

Nicholas

October 17th, 2008 10:39pm Report this comment

He needs to get tough. We've had enough of this shower.

Relentless erosion of natural justice; undermining of centuries old rules of law to protect the innocent; 42 days; ID cards; the super spy database and now they want to control political blogging. Come on Cameron, FFS, speak out against them on civil liberties and freedom of speech. Play them at their own devious game. By-pass parliament. Organise an anti-labour rally in the name of truth and freedom. We need a Ukrainian-style orange revolution now, not party politics.

Hysteria

October 18th, 2008 1:45am Report this comment

Jeez Short - I know things might be gettin tough - but surely the Brits will rise to the occasion?

I am sure the realisation of the need for personal belt-tightening will manifest itself in the body-politic. The first party to to realise this and enact the necessary cuts wins - and we start a recovery

Lord Elvis of Paisley

October 18th, 2008 2:33am Report this comment

I think Hague put the elephant in the room last Wednesday when he asked about a freeze on the rules regarding annuities. If this hasn't been sorted by next Wednesday (it should have been sorted on Weds afternoon gone if the Government had any conscience) then all hell will break loose.

What else;

42 days u-turn
Proposed new national database
Massive debt
IMF warnings since forever
Ghurkas
Pensions generally (with reference to tax grab)
Latest coroners report attacking MoD
Most recent lost data from MoD
etc, etc...

Andrew

October 18th, 2008 4:44am Report this comment

Funny how people forget that 2 weeks ago Gordon Browns terrible traits were so obvious. People never change who they are. He`s a disaster for this country and needs to go. We should all be doing our duty and helping this

Keith

October 18th, 2008 7:02am Report this comment

Cameron has to savage Brown on Wednesday....nothing less will do!

oldtimer

October 18th, 2008 10:10am Report this comment

There are two entirely different groups to consider here - those members and groupies inside the ivory tower called the Houses of Parliament, and the great mass of unwashed outside. I consider myself one of the unwashed, an outsider not an insider.

As an outsider I thought Cameron said exactly the right things on Friday. He needs to do more of the same on Wednesday, to nail down Macavity Brown for his share of responsibility for the economic mess we are all in.

Cameron will be wasting his time coming up with detailed policies - that is the job of Brown who controls the levers of power. Moreover Cameron probably understands as much as anyone that the government`s ability to influence, yet alone control, events in this financial crisis are severely limited. Events will take their course. They will be very unpleasant - Short the UK listed some possible examples above. Some will happen - look back to the 1970s and early 1980s for the gut wrenching changes that can occur when governments get swamped by events beyond their control.

With this in prospect us outsiders couldn`t care less about the petty machinations inside the ivory tower. We want an election so that the unwashed can really have their say.

Ian C

October 18th, 2008 10:17am Report this comment

"We'll sort this out with a new quango" won't do it. In language Cameron shoudl understand, it is an 'under the bonnet solution' to making the car go.

It's the 11 year tax grab ("we will not raise tax rates" promise 1997) and all those DEFICITS, stupid - and that means the off-balance sheet and personal ones as well.

JONNY

October 18th, 2008 10:45am Report this comment

It isn't all the economy stupid.

There is the small matter of our rights as free citizens of this country. Bitterly fought for and won over centuries of strife. But now threatened by Chairman Brown with his ID Cards and his Police State Data Base that tracks our smallest email.
And now his threatened reversion to socialistic state control.

Huw Thornton

October 18th, 2008 11:37am Report this comment

I think that to talk of "High Noon" in connection with PMQs is way over the top.

After the events of the last couple of weeks, Brown is still holding the best cards and DC will be at a disadvantage.

By all means DC should establish markers for the future, but this battle is long-term.

Just as well, given the specific skills set of DC and Osbourne.

Another Day

October 18th, 2008 12:40pm Report this comment

Have a little patience.

In the middle of all this bad news, it is no bad thing that Cameron takes a bad seat. He is playing the long game here and as the crisis continues people will associate Gordon Brown with it more and more. There is no quik fix to what is going on now and we've already seen that if Brown is sees to have a good day it is quickly followed by a bad day.

As all this plays out towards an election, the odd poll or PMQs in the middle of October wil have very little significance.

TGF UKIP

October 18th, 2008 2:54pm Report this comment

James, is right not least because we can no longer assume that it is written in stone that the next election will be June 2010.

When this crisis started a couple of weeks ago, Gordon set out to dominate the news media and above all to marginalize the Tories and to date he has massively succeeded.

Cleverly he has been painting a picture of economic warfare visited on this country by global forces emanating from America. We should not rule out, therefore, Gordon using Tory attacks to claim an absence of bipartisanship and justify scuttling to the country in a "wartime election" to seek a renewed and strengthened mandate. The campaign would be deliberately very short and the focus entirely, if Gordon can help it, economic.

An unlikely theory and scenario, I am well aware, but I do think it has to be factored in. If it does have any legs the first signs would normally come from seeing it floated by "friends of Ed's" in the Browngraph and Times.

However, while the "bipartisan" thing complicates it a little, the Tories have got to attack Gordon hard and much harder than they have seemed capable of doing so far. Much more importantly they've got to be able to make their attacks resonate with the public. In short they've got to be as dirty and populist as Gordon, something from which Dave has so far resiled.

If they don't make their attacks stick, they are in great danger of Gordon being seen as the only viable game in town.

Were it not for their own stupid and oft repeated self constraining promise to match Labour spending, their attacks would be relatively easy. "This is a typical Labour Government and Brown a typical Labour Chancellor and PM and just like all other such they over-spend, over-borrow and over-tax until Britain's bust and we Tories are left to clean up the Labour mess." So although, they've made it difficult for themselves what I would suggest is they "do a Gordon" and simply pretend they never made any such spending promise. Then they need to bring home to people in very simple per household terms just what Gordon is spending and has spent since 1997 and what it adds up to in government borrowing per household - borrowing only our taxes can repay.

"Squandered" was the name of David Craig's book and that is the book that Dave and his mates need to throw at Gordon every PMQs and in every radio and TV interview.

Tiberius

October 18th, 2008 3:58pm Report this comment

You know as well as anyone, TGF, that Brown won't call an election before he has to. Cunning he may be, but honest, courageous, and able he is not. That's why the Tories shouldn't try to force a result on the economic crisis, because they have time on their side and because it's too early anyway to see the exit door. Labour's sycophants are very keen to ask Osborne and Cameron where that exit lies ("what would you do differently?" - the assumption being Brown's course is his plan and by definition the correct one), but Brown can afford to showboat because he knows he's not going to face the same interrogation.

And in any case, in this world of spin, deceit, smoke and mirrors, all Cameron has to do is reverse the sight in the photograph: make sure you're wearing the poppy earlier than the other guy. It's a sure-fire winner.

TrevorsDen

October 18th, 2008 6:40pm Report this comment

Will Brown turn up? Darling could make the EU 'summit' AND still be at PMQs - why did Brown have to bugger off early? Oh yes Unemployment figures.

The problem is that Cameron will be spoilt for choice. there are probably at least a dozen different lines of attack. The very act of picking on one completely trivialises the scale of Browns disasterous stewardship.

Unemployment alone would normally be an obvious topic - but which one do you chose now?

I suppose a simple question would be, 'Why, after promising an end to boom and bust in each of his 10 budget speeches, has he had to spend £37 billion of taxpayers money on recapitalising the banks?'

Browns giant non sequitur about 'the crisis from America' is of course meaningless. At the very least Brown is as guilty of neglect as every other world leader, but that still leaves him 'GUILTY as charged'.

The notion of the worlds leaders (with Brown in the forefront) gathering around and saying its a world problem - and exculpating themselves by saying 'but its not our fault' is risible.

Mind you its not as risible as Browns claim to be the man to redefine capitalism when after 11 years at the helm Britain finds itself in the biggest financial crisis since 1929.

Verity

October 19th, 2008 3:13pm Report this comment

Well said, Jonny, and as almost always, I agree with TGF UKIP.

Brown has presented himself as a hulking, poweful figure when he's just a weak, greedy nonentity you would slither away from if you saw him coming towards you at a cocktail party.

David Cameron has no vision and is also weak, and if he has one point of strong, concentrated focus, it is on his place on the EUSSR gravy train after his - I would imagine very short - premiership.

I picked up something that describes the weakness and ineffectitude in Westminster. It is a quote from Lin Yutang: When small men begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set.

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