Squeezed out
Peter Hoskin 5:01pm
Today's YouGov poll for the Mirror tells a similar story to those released at the weekend - i.e. fairly unimpressive Labour gains, given the wall-to-wall coverage Brown's enjoyed recently. But there's a chapter to that story that I didn't pick up on in my post of a couple of days ago - and that's just how poor the numbers are for the Lib Dems.
They're on 14 percent today, and were stuck on 16 percent in yesterday's ComRes poll. It's similar to how they've been polling for the last few months. But what makes the latest numbers stand out is that they come on the back of a couple of good weeks for the party - perhaps the best since Nick Clegg took charge. He's beaten both Labour and the Tories to a "tax cuts for low income earners" message, and - rightly or wrongly - Vince Cable has been cast in his default role as the Man Who Knows What's Going On. But voters, it seems, remain unmoved.
Of course, the third party in what is effectively a two-party system is always likely to get squeezed out when it comes to the big issues. But it seems to be approaching the point that nothing - nothing - Nick Clegg can say will register with the electorate. And, surely, that will only fuel questions about his leadership.
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David
October 20th, 2008 6:10pm Report this comment"But what makes the latest numbers stand out is that they come on the back of a couple of good weeks for the party - perhaps the best since Nick Clegg took charge. He's beaten both Labour and the Tories to a "tax cuts for low income earners" message,"
Unless, of course, the arguments of people like Finklestein are right and that simply the electorate does not believe such promises and that they therefore do not reward parties with increased support.
But then, that would require you to take a step back from the constant message that tax cuts are the be all and end all of an economic policy (regardless, it seems, of economic circumstances - boom? Tax cuts! bust? Tax cuts!)
Faceless Bureaucrat
October 20th, 2008 6:15pm Report this comment"Of course, the third party in what is effectively a two-party system is always likely to get squeezed out when it comes to the big issues."
'Nuff said - nobody believes the Lib Dems will form a Government - ever.
That said, if the Labour vote totally collapses at the next GE, they may just find themselves as HM Offical Opposition, which might cause the Conservatives a few problems. Not as impausible as it sounds...
luke
October 20th, 2008 6:19pm Report this commentYou need to be very careful about this line that labour are making unimpressive gains.
In the 2005 general election they got 36%, so the 34% in the mirror poll is only 2% away from that. I think you will see they have made a major recovery of 2005 voters.
The big difference in these polls is the switch from libdem to Tory (plus 2-4% from labour to tory), which is keeping Cameron well ahead and will probably play out in the 3-way marginals as giving the tories some extra seats.
But on the tory-labour battle, these polls, if played out in the marginals, are unlikely to give Cameron a large (or perhaps even a wokrable) majority.
Also - the libdem vote usually picks up with libdem exposure in an election. An election now might well see the libdems benefit at the cost of the tories more than labout - further narrowing the gap.
Certainly, on this basis, if the labour vote recovers to 35%, labour strategists will surely say that it is "game on"!
SamualS
October 20th, 2008 6:22pm Report this commentThe libdem tax cut message is likely to resonate much better once the downturn hits though.
Essentially you will have a very distinct choice:
Labour- borrow and spend
Tories- pay down debt
LibDem- tax cuts
Pete, Scotland
October 20th, 2008 6:29pm Report this commentWhat are they for and who needs them?
They aren't true Liberals so what is their point?
Do I hear them protesting about the erosion of our Liberties, no I hear a Tory!
Do I hear them protesting about our lack of democracy, no I hear a Tory!
Do I hear them protesting about the corruption within Government, apart from one noble member, NO!
Who kept in power a hugely unpopular, and inept, Government in Scotland which put wind into the sails of the SNP?
I think there is a niche for a liberal party but at the moment, because of the liberals failures, it is much more likely to be filled by a nationalsit party.
Time will tell.
RMC
October 20th, 2008 8:54pm Report this commentWhat squeezed out like in this poll: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/20/polls-economy
Susan Hill
October 20th, 2008 10:08pm Report this commentThe Libdems are as pointless as the Liberals and the Social Democrats and all the others before them. They can never win, they`re just a waste of everybody`s time, always have been. They have been on the verge of a 'breakthrough' for decades and never do it. I don`t understand why anybody would waste their time on them- they`re only there to make up the numbers.
Nick Kaplan
October 21st, 2008 1:21am Report this commentDavid complains that we conservatives advocate tax cuts independent of economic circumstances when he says: “boom? Tax cuts! bust? Tax cuts!” That’s because tax cuts lead to economic growth which is good during boom and bust!
David Blake
October 21st, 2008 9:07am Report this commentThe latest ICM polls gives the Lib Dems 21%, which is up 4%.
Susan, some people support parties because of what they stand for, not whether they will win.
Not even God knows what the Tories stand for nowadays.
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