Poll round-up
Peter Hoskin 4:30pm
It's been a poll-a-ramic few days, with the overall picture still being that Labour have enjoyed some post-bailout gains - particularly on economic competence - but remain trailing the Tories by some margin. Today's Ipsos MORI poll is a case in point. It has the Tories down 5 on last month, and Labour up 7; but the Tory drop has to be seen through the prism of a "freakishly" high result for them last month, and - besides - they're still 15 points clear of Brown & Co.
Perhaps the most encouraging poll for Labour supporters is the YouGov one conducted in marginal seats and broadcast by Channel 4 earlier. That has the Tories on 43 percent (down 2 from last month); Labour on 38 percent (up 6); and the Lib Dems on 12 percent (down 1) - a fairly significant readjustment, then. But, again, there are mitigating factors that should blunt any Labour excitement: chief among them the very fact that this poll was conducted in "battleground" constituencies (i.e. ones that Labour should hope to contest anyway). Tim Montgomerie writes a good analysis of that poll here.
The problem for Brown - and Labour - is that the so-called "superheroics" of his bank bailout are beginning to lose their shine, and the gloomy realities of recession are about to kick in. Any gains that have been made could be eroded swiftly. No.10 will hope to prevent that process by milking Deripaskagate for all its dubious worth.



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Mike. Brighton
October 22nd, 2008 5:38pm Report this commentLabour will only milk Deripaskagate if they are going short and hope for a cut n' run election. An election which current polling shows would still be a disaster for them.
If they go long for a May 2010 election they should focus their energies on sorting the economy out (or more realistically for them, pretending to have sorted the economy out) and not on short term tactical nonsense...ah, but Brown cannot help himself.
Talia
October 22nd, 2008 5:42pm Report this commentPLEASE can you stop publishing these photos of Brown? There are two now, one under the other. It’s very off-putting and nausea-inducing.
Faceless Bureaucrat
October 22nd, 2008 6:17pm Report this commentMike.Brighton [5.38pm]
Agree, a snap GE possibly on the cards here - this may be the best level of popularity NuLab can hope for between now and 2010.
Any Labour Party strategist looking at Brown's Premiership would deduce that his popularity can only head south form here on in. Mandy and Herr Doktor Campbell were successful in the pre-Blog age - they are not used to the kind of near-immediate trashing of their smear campaigns by a real-time media that is now the accepted norm. In their day, no-one would have been able to so swiftly challenge their (or pro-left media) assertions.
Mandy may yet find himself back in the ‘crosshairs’ over his Corfu escapade (not to mention his involvement in the other private yacht incident to do with Microsoft that is currently gaining coverage in the blogosphere) and heading for his next resignation.
Sherlock Holmes
October 22nd, 2008 6:35pm Report this commentHow often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?
Now, we have two questions before us: is Mr Osborne a raving idiot? Clearly not. Then how do we account for the presence of Mr Feldman? We must conjecture a bungled attempt to get Mr Rothschild to donate.
Pete, Scotland
October 22nd, 2008 6:44pm Report this commentFrom where I stand Cameron and Osbourne have looked weak and clueless.
I accept that it was a difficult time for them, but under the guidance of Mandelson and Campbell New Labour will go for the jugular at every opportunity.
I hate to say it but Osbourne isn't ready for this level of politics, he needs to spend more time taking bruises, and ducking and weaving, before aspiring to the title of High Office. Mandelson served his time doing this and it shows.
Cameron needs to put his teeth back in and attack.
People all over the UK want a reason not to vote for New Labour, everybody feels it is time for change.
Cameron needs to be a strong leader (not a bi-partisan one) and provide it!
Ron Phillips
October 22nd, 2008 7:23pm Report this commentI used to be an admirer of George Osborne - until I learned of his recent record in Parliament, when he voted for extension of the abortion time limit, and voted against fathers being given legal status in family units. Such policies have no place in a Conservative administration and he betrayed lack of judgement by supporting them. His recent adventures on the yacht indicate that his judgement shows no improvement. I can only hope another Conservative politician will soon be filling the role of Shadow Chancellor.
Summer
October 22nd, 2008 7:47pm Report this commentGood to see the polls still showing a Conservative lead, and one that will win the election. Judging by the general feeling that is emerging from the 'man on the Clampham Omnibus', I would not be surprised if Labour's scandelous behaviour this week doesn't knock a point or two off. Then, off course, the only way is down.
Debt at 1.9bn pounds 127% of GDP
Falling FTSE
Devaluing currency
Depleated pensions
Falling house prices
Decreasing credit supply
Falling producton
Increasing jobless
Increasing inflation
Increasing repossessions
Increasing housing waiting list
Increasing energy prices in winter
Increasing car duty
Increasing crime
No end to immigration
No cuts in welfare benftis
No cuts in quangos
No cut in ID proposals
No cut in John Lewis List
And corruption, corruption corruption.
PS Agree with Talia, please stop showing pictures of Brown, they are making me quite ill. A cartoon would be much better, if anything.
Nicholas
October 22nd, 2008 10:07pm Report this commentTrouble with Brown is, for all his earnest talk about his values, blah, blah, blah, his real vain, egocentric, vindictive character shows through and the public sees it. At PMQs he just gives the impression of being a nasty piece of work.
Hubris instead of humility. Arrogance instead of understanding. Black-hearted, conniving duplicity and deceit instead of honesty and plain speaking. The whole of Team Brown mirror this. The only other government I can think of that contained such a collection of unpleasant, grotesque villains and misfits was the Nazi party.
It is laughable that after 11 years of putting up with these scoundrels a leading journalist can write bilge that only the Labour party understands people. That is the absolute last thing they do.
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